Fitting of Engel Curve: Rural Maharashtra Managerial Economics I: Section D Group 6 Completed Under the Guidance of Prof. Kaushik Bhattacharya September 2011 Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow Submitted on September 5th, 2012 ? Executive Summary This study's objective is to estimate and analyze the correlation between the monthly per capita expenditure on food and the monthly per capita total expenditure for households in rural Maharashtra. The Engel Curve Model is used to estimate this correlation, which shows that as income levels increase, the percentage expenditure on food items decreases.
As part of the consumer expenditure surveys conducted every five years since October 1972, the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) carried out a survey in India from July 2006 to June 2007. The data from this survey, known as the 63rd round of the National Sample Survey, was utilized for regression analysis. Vario
...us models such as Linear, Working-Lesser, and Double Log Models were included in this analysis.
According to the study, food is considered a necessity good based on income elasticity. The regression analysis included dummy variables for qualitative factors such as seasonality, occupation, and social group. Among these factors, occupation was found to have greater significance. It is important to acknowledge that the analysis has limitations since it assumes an individual's income can be represented by their total expenditure on all goods.
Other limitations arising from the survey's content have been listed. Contents Executive Summary2 Introduction4 Understanding the Data6 Data Collection6 Data Processing6 Function Formulation6 Regression Analysis7 ? Introduction The nature of a particular good can be determined by an important parameter called Income elasticity, which helps us classif
the good as either inferior, a necessity, or luxury. This parameter allows us to predict the goods that a society will prioritize during different stages of development and provides insights into the behavior of different sections of society towards that good.
In the present economic situation, it is essential to comprehend the correlation between food spending and income. This understanding enables us to forecast demand and bridge the gap between supply and demand in a developing economy. The income elasticity of food is especially important for policymakers aiming to achieve inclusive development. By establishing this connection, policymakers can create strategies that align with their objective of enhancing the economy.
The analysis of income elasticity involves empirical examination using both Demand curves and Engel Curves. Engel Curves illustrate the connection between household expenditure on particular goods or services and household income. These curves were named after Ernst Engel, a German statistician (1821-1896), who extensively researched this correlation in an article published almost 150 years ago. The most significant discovery from his article is known as "Engel's law," which states that lower-income families devote a greater proportion of their budget to food.
Engel curves can vary based on demographic variables and other consumer characteristics. Empirical Engel curves can have linear or highly nonlinear shapes depending on the goods being analyzed. They have various applications like equivalence scale calculations, welfare comparisons, and determining demand system properties. This includes assessing agreeability and rank. The Engel Curve can be used to study the relationship between food consumption and income, with different models offering unique advantages.
The analysis in this study involves three models: the Linear
Regression Model, the Working-Lesser Model, and the Working-Leser Model. The Linear Regression Model assumes a linear relationship between two variables and calculates elasticity using the equation Y = A0 + A1X. On the other hand, the Working-Lesser Model uses the equation Wi = A0 + AilnX and is considered as an initial empirical model in consumption analysis. In contrast, the Working-Leser model determines each share of the food item through a linear function that includes log prices and total expenditure on all considered food items.
The presented model uses "i" to represent each food item, "wi" to represent the share of expenditure on food "i" out of all "n" food items, and "x" to represent the total expenditure on all included food items. The ordinary least squares method can be used to estimate this model for each individual food item.
Another model, called the Double Log Model, assumes a linear relationship between the logarithms of both dependent and independent variables. The advantage of this relationship is that the coefficients of the income variable directly indicate income elasticity. The equation for this model is lnY = A0 + A1 lnX.
The coefficient of the independent variable, ?= A1, can be directly obtained from the elasticity. The data used in this project was collected by the National Sample Survey (NSS) during its 63rd round of data collection from July 1st, 2005 to June 30th, 2006. The survey gathered information on various expenditures such as food, clothing, medical expenses, alcohol, etc., and demographic details about each family including religion, caste, occupation, age and gender. To validate the collected survey data, it is divided into two samples.
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We initially analyzed the two samples individually and then combined them to validate the findings. For data processing, we calculated the per capita total expenditure on food for 1702 families living in Rural Maharashtra. Since income information was unavailable, we used monthly per capita total expenditure as a proxy to determine each family's Engel Curve. Factors like social group or caste, occupation, and seasonality may impact a family's food consumption; however, they were not taken into account in our analysis.
The analysis of data from rural Maharashtra involved considering the region or district of the respondent as a variable, but this was not taken into account due to its homogeneous nature. To analyze the data, a multivariate regression model was used with monthly per capita expenditure (X) as the independent variable and per capita food expenditure (Y) as the dependent variable.
Qualitative factors like seasonality, caste, and occupation were included in our regression model as dummy variables. The specific values for these dummy variables are:
- Seasonality: Jul-Sep, Oct-Dec, Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun
- Caste: SC/ST, OBC, Others
- Occupation: Self-Employed, Salary/Wage Earning
Casual Labor, Others Monthly per capita food expenditure is determined by a function that includes monthly per capita total expenditure and dummy variables. This function was utilized to create different regression models, including linear regression, double log regression, and the working-lesser form. The weighted least square method accounted for the weight assigned to each household. The SPSS tool was used to perform regression analysis and extract data from the flat file. Additionally, a scatter plot of food versus total expenditure was generated to demonstrate Engel's law.
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