Explain the Problem of Induction- Discuss Two Different Solutions to It. Essay Example

a prediction or a conclusion to an inductive argument be justified? David Hume (1711-1776, cited in Sober, 2004) states that there is a missing premise in all inductive arguments. Inductive arguments take the form of Observation (1) in my experience, fires are hot Conclusion (2) therefore, all fires are hot Hume states that the inference from observation to conclusion is evidence that the induction argument above is not fully clear.

Without a second thought, the argument passes from observation to conclusion and shows that we accept a principle connecting the two.Hume formulates this missing premise as the claim that the future will resemble the past; a principle that is normally overlooked because everyone thinks it to be common sense, but it is present in every instance of inductive reasoning. What Hume suggests to make the inference from observation to conclusion valid is a premise that he calls the principal of the uniformity of nature (PUN) This principal does not claim that the future will resemble the past in every respect, it merely states that in some respect, the future will resemble the past.The new argument takes the form Observation (1) in my experience, fires are hot (PUN) (2) Nature is uniform Conclusion (3) therefore, all fires are hot The above argument is now valid. The premises justify the conclusion. We must assume that PUN if an inductive argument is made.

Sceptics may still find the conclusion not rationally justified and therefore would have to attack a premise. The obvious choice for a sceptic would be to attack premise 2. They would state that PUN is an inductive argument it self e. g. 1)For as long

as I have observed, nature has been constant Therefore, (2) Nature in general is uniform An inductive argument cannot defend an inductive argument as that would be circular and PUN cannot be defended by a deductive argument as the observations we have made provide no evidence for this.

Perhaps to defend the PUN, I could change the definition to fit a similar statement as “all circles are round. ” Hume rejected this by stating that there would be no contradiction in supposing that the universe should suddenly change (Sober, 2004).Also PUN infers that the future resembles the past in some respect. This principal would not help me if I wanted to know how many legs spiders have in the future. If the future is only similar in some respect how can PUN be a reliable insight into the future? As shown above, PUN cannot be defended and therefore cannot be justified. Therefore the problem of induction is that all of the inductive inferences we make cannot be rationally justified, we cannot give a reason why we make the inferences we do.

Hume suggested a solution to the problem of induction; he stated that because of our natural beliefs and basic instincts. When we are all born with the acceptance of PUN, every human and every animal has this trait. Perhaps we have obtained this from the countless years of evolution or a gift from a divine being. Wherever it comes from, it is set so deeply in our minds that we have no real choice about whether to accept it. We are able to momentarily forget about the principal, but nature soon reasserts itself and we

begin to make generalizations and assumptions.Hume also state that when we are confronted with a natural belief, a belief that comes to us as naturally e.

g. believing the sun will rise in the morning, we are rationally justified in accept it. A belief can be rational in this sense even though we cannot supply any convincing arguments for it. If two people therefore have different beliefs regarding the same situation e. g.

the sun will rise tomorrow and the sun will not rise tomorrow, they can both be rationally justified if it is their natural beliefs that caused their decisions.What we are rationally entitled to believe depends on what sort of beliefs we have, and not just on the available evidence and argument. In conclusion, the problem of induction does not have a definite solution that every can agree to. A possible solution may be to believe in what we naturally believe in.

Reference: Sober, E. ( 4th edn. 2004). Core Questions in Philosophy: A Text with Readings. Upper Saddle River NJ: Pearson Education Inc.

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