Garreau’s Four Scenarios Essay Example

a result of overeating.

The majority of the human population has the resources and means necessary to not have to worry about the essential food resource. The heaven scenario speaks of humans evolving in various fashions unrelated to survival. Creating new technologies to make life easier, more convenient, and efficient are the key focus to our new age evolution. The heaven scenario predicts a utopia-like future driven by advances in technology that is merely science fiction right now. This theory is wide open for speculation of the future because no one knows what advances the human race is capable of making and how quickly they ill be able to achieve these goals.

The scenario is optimistic about the future and that is the main focus. Becoming like a god has been a goal of human for as long as our history has been recorded. The hell scenario is the polar opposite of the heaven scenario. The pessimistic view point of the hell scenario has valid points about the human race eventually destroying itself with technology. Science fiction movies tend to focus on this disaster scenario type mind set. There have been several movies about a vaccine that turns humans into other creatures or movies of a new virus spreading and killing off a whole population of humans.

These type of disasters are very possible and there is virtually no way of preparing for the disaster. One interesting early warning sign of the hell scenario that Garreau presents is “technologies continue to accelerate as individual nations, continents, tribes, or movements jockey for position in a hostile world. The development of nuclear missiles is probably the most apparent and real

threat to this early warning. Several countries of the world already have the capability to destroy the earth in an instant. Foreign affairs and globalization is crucial to preventing nuclear warfare.

The hell scenario is a terrifying reality that our race fails to come to terms with due to denial. Everyone have their own agendas and fail to see the larger picture before decision making. In order to prevent the hell scenario from happening, the human race must be aware of the reality of these dangers and work collaboratively to not allow these disasters to happen. The prevail scenario is the belief that “humans have an uncanny history of muddling through- of forging unlikely paths to improbable futures in defiance of historical forces that seem certain and inevitable.

No matter what adversity the human race has had to endure, the race has managed to continue on and progress. This scenario is optimistic in nature and has a positive outlook on the future of the human race. Uncertainty about the specifics of the future is one of the plausible aspects of the scenario according to Garreau. The Prevail scenario seems to be the most plausible scenario. The heaven and hell scenarios are both extreme in nature and I believe that certain isolated instances with reflected one of those two scenarios.

Heaven like advances and hell like advances are both viable. Technology will continue to advance. But, with all things new, there is a trial and error phase. Science rarely works on the first try and mistakes will be made throughout this process. The complexity of the new technologies will create problems as well. For example, hardware technology in computers

seems to be advancing faster than software technology. This gap in advancement can hinder future develop until both aspects develop simultaneously.

I am majoring in construction management and I do not believe that I will witness a drastic development in technology for this industry during my career. Paperless offices are the greatest advancement the only feasible technology that will happen. The Prevail scenario seems to be more likely than any other scenario. The construction industry will become more efficient developing new construction using faster and cheaper methods. The industry is extremely labor intensive and due to the unique nature of each project, I don’t think that machines will replace the labor force any time in the foreseeable future.