Decision Tree Structure With Expected Value Analysis Tourism

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The Singapore Youth Olympic Committee is to choose the locale to house the Youth Olympians for Youth Olympic Game 2010 that meets the demands of International Olympic Committee ( IOC ) , capacity to house all international Olympian, run intoing Singapore ‘s purpose of hosting YOG with the lowest possible cost.

DECISION TREE STRUCTURE WITH EXPECTED VALUE ANALYSIS

Nanyang Technological University ( NTU ) and National University of Singapore ( NUS ) are selected as possible suited sites to house the Olympians in footings of capacity and meeting IOC ‘s demand.

With NTU, we will be utilizing bing substructure with higher retrofitting cost.

With NUS, the school is already on the manner of constructing new lodging substructure, which will be ready by YOG. With the cost borne by NUS, this will incur minimum cost to retrofit.

Retrofiting costs for NTU:

Item

Chosen and completed on clip

Chosen and non completed on clip

Not chosen

Security

SGD 1.8m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Food

SGD 1.95m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Hygiene

SGD 1m

SGD 0.7m

SGD 0.1m

IT Readiness

SGD 1m

SGD 0.7m

SGD 0.1m

Conveyance

SGD 0.5m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Sports Facilities

SGD 1m

SGD 0.7m

SGD 0.1m

Entire

SGD 7.25m

SGD 2.1m

SGD 0.3m

Retrofiting costs for NUS:

Item

Chosen and completed on clip

Chosen and non completed on clip

Not chosen

Security

SGD 1.5m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Food

SGD 1.95m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Hygiene

SGD 0

SGD 0

SGD 0

IT Readiness

SGD 0

SGD 0

SGD 0

Conveyance

SGD 0.5m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Sports Facilities

SGD 0

SGD 0

SGD 0

Entire

SGD 3.95m

SGD 0

SGD 0

Below is the determination tree analysis between NTU and NUS.C: UsersBad BoiDesktopDecision Tree 1.jpg

Figure 2. Decision Tree Analysis

Hazard PROFILE

Hazard can be defined as uncertainness of result ( whether positive chance or negative menace ) . Certain degree of hazard pickings is inevitable if the undertaking is to accomplish its aims. ( Mike Clayton )

Identify Key Risks

The beginnings of undertaking hazards are limitless. Risk designation procedure should non be limited to merely the nucleus squad. Input signal from clients, patrons, subcontractors, sellers and other stakeholders should be solicited. ( Erik W. Larson & A ; Clifford F. Gray )

Reaching the undertaking objectives on clip, within budget and meeting needed functional public presentation is critical for the Youth Olmpic Games ( YOG ) 2010.

Identifying hazard is about observing uncertainnesss and premises. It should include finance, safety, societal and environmental impacts.

A preexistent status aˆ¦

aˆ¦Can be triggered by a peculiar circumstanceaˆ¦

aˆ¦to make a causal eventaˆ¦

aˆ¦that leads to a alteration in the undertaking result

Root cause

Gun trigger

Hazard

Consequence

Figure 3. Formal Description of a Hazard

Risk Breakdown Structure ( RBS )

One of the most powerful tools for placing hazards is to interrupt down all of the undertaking risks harmonizing to a fixed set of hazard classs. Time, cost, quality and range offer us one of the most utile ways to place undertaking hazard and we will utilize these classs to assist us to be after out some of the major undertaking hazards that are likely to meet. ( Mike Clayton )

Figure 3. Risk Breakdown Structures ( RBS )

Define Outcomes

In October 2007, when Singapore submitted its command to host the 2010 Youth Olympic Games, the NUS site was presented as the primary site, as some of its installations were already slated for completion by August 2010, while NTU – with its ready-made installations – was identified as an alternate [ 3 ] . The YOG 2010 is a time-constrained undertaking which must be completed by an imposed day of the month. The undertaking director must do a smart pick where is the best location for Youth Olympic Village ( YOG ) and must be delivered on clip.

The demand of small town must be the bosom of the YOG and a privileged topographic point for participants to beat up and portion their experiences and civilizations between themselves and besides with their relations and young person commissions through digital agencies of communicating located in an cyberspace Centre. ( International Olympic Committee, 2012 )

Assign Opportunities

The YOG must hold adjustment and bedclothes installations for 5,000 jocks and other official staffs go toing the Olympic map ( Singapore Youth Olympic Games Organising Committee, 2010 ) . The NUS university town is a undertaking which must be completed before 10th August 2010.

Clarify the Consequences

The undertaking of YOG ‘s demand must make to the criterion of international multi-sport events. It has to carry through the capacity of 5,000 jocks and shortest travel clip to make all the Olympic game locales. The cost must be within the undertaking budget and the clip agenda is two and half old ages.

Quantify Risk Tolerance with Desirability Scores

Choosing the option with the highest mark and doing the concluding determination about the location of the YOG is the purpose of decision-making.

The Risk Profile

The hazard profile is a snapshot of the undertaking ‘s operating environment and its capacity to cover with cardinal high-ranking hazards and chances linked to the accomplishment of undertaking ‘s aims and consequences.

This determination must be consistent with the IOC ‘s direction to Singapore to host the Games at a sensible cost. The Olympic Village at NTU comprises an Olympic Village Square and a bunch of residential halls on an adjoining site. The university expects to work out the inside informations of extra installations, such as sweetening to its security and lighting system ( Channel NewsAsia, 2008 ) . Cost effectivity is one of the aims for the successful YOG undertaking. On the clip constrained YOG undertaking, the anterior consideration should be within the budget.

Hazard profile for taking the location of the Youth Olympic Village

Uncertainty: The Location of Youth Olympic Village

Options Outcome

Opportunity

Consequences

Cost to YOG

Delivery on Time

NTU

Chosen

50 %

SGD 9.35M

Most likely

NTU

Not chosen

50 %

SGD 0.3 M

Most likely

Nu

Chosen

50 %

SGD 3.95M

Slightly likely

Nu

Not chosen

50 %

SGD 0

Slightly likely

Figure 3. Hazard profile for taking the location of the Youth Olympic Village

In position of the above analysis, taking NUS as the Youth Olympic Village is a smart pick. The cost to YOG ( SGD 9.35M ) is much lower than NTU ( SGD 3.95M ) .

Determing the Overall Desirability for Location of the YOG ‘s Risk Profile

Alternate Outcome

Opportunities of Retrofit on Time

Desirability Score

Contribution to Overall Desirability

NTU

Chosen

0.9

0.8

72

NTU

Not chosen

0.1

0.2

2

Nu

Chosen

0.6

0.9

54

Nu

Not chosen

0.4

0.1

4

Figure 3. Overall Desirability for Location of the YOG ‘s Risk Profile

From the above graph, we can see that we assign NUS higher desirableness mark ( 0.9 ) comparison to NTU ( 0.8 ) if NUS town can finish on clip. However, NUS town is a undertaking which will be constructing a new and green campus while NTU is an bing campus with some athleticss installation available. Therefore the opportunity of NUS to retrofit on clip is less ( 0.6 ) than NTU campus ( 0.9 ) . In position of the overall desirableness mark, NTU is much higher ( 72 ) than NUS ( 54 ) if they are chosen.

The Youth Olympic Games Singapore is a clip constrained undertaking. There is a great challenging for taking NUS town as a location of YOG if the town can non present on clip.

Exploration OF KEY UNCERTAINTIES

By and large, Olympic Games are owned by IOC ( IOC, 2004 ) and are organised by a set of establishments that include representatives of states and local authoritiess, the National Olympic Committee ( NOC ) and an Organising Committee for the Olympic Games ( OCOG ) . Additionally there are contractors carry throughing operative undertakings like constructing the locales. ( Berlemann, 2007 )

Sustainability issues seem to play an progressively of import function in offering metropoliss ‘ efforts to win the right to host the Games therefore the command metropolis has to put out how it plans to cover with sustainability issues related to Olympic Games. The IOC awards the right to host Olympic Games to a metropolis ( IOC, 2004 ) and enters a host metropolis contract with it. After being awarded to a host metropolis, there are seven old ages of readying clip and four hebdomads of events. The host metropolis ‘s government organic structures are normally really involved in planning and presenting the Olympics and these organic structures can be assumed to be chiefly concerned with benefits for the host metropolis. These are, for illustration, improved substructure, accomplishments, economic additions every bit good as regeneration of natural and reinforced environment. ( Berlemann, 2007 )

There is a possible to larn from old Games and better against the baseline established by their successes. Staging Olympic Games can excite urban reclamation ( Synadinos, 2001 ) and assist speed up bing attempts. It is a immense and complex project which requires an huge substructure in footings of conveyance, adjustment, competition locales, catering, public-service corporations, energy and waste every bit good as detailed planning and administration with a direction system that is able to manage a monolithic undertaking of organizing all the different sorts of operations. Though there has been some review sing the ensuing giantism as hosts tried to outclass old Games in footings of graduated table and ocular impact, positive effects can besides be recorded ( Berlemann, 2007 ) .

Successful planning is by and large guided by past experience, motive, emotions and flexibleness. Expert interviews are peculiarly utile when there is a deficiency of literature. As direction systems are seldom published in item, the ensuing spreads have been filled with the aid of adept cognition. ( Meuser & A ; Nagel, 2002 )

Sing the fact that host metropoliss tend to be major focal points of tourers and media, integrated sustainability considerations into all determination doing agencies to apportion duty for sustainable development to all degrees and all functional countries. The organizational construction has to vouch speedy and consistent determination devising to guarantee bringing on clip. Nevertheless, sustainable solutions can merely be developed in a concerted mode including stakeholders from different organizing organic structures and beyond. Communication is important to be informed about the values and penchants of stakeholders thereby understanding what precisely their claims are and being able to expect their reaction to possible jobs. Involving stakeholders in decision-making leads to better determinations ( Schmidheiny, 1992 ) and is necessary to obtain understanding that are enduring and socially accepted. ( Berlemann, 2007 )

Olympic Games chiefly reply on sponsorship and most times on authorities support every bit good. As a consequence, fixed budgets are provided during a specific period of clip. The populace will be particularly interested in cognizing how precisely this budget is used because it is partially revenue enhancement money that is either acquired by raised revenue enhancements or diverted off from other authorities maps. The support coming from public beginnings is normally fixed from the beginning while extra financess from private beginnings can be acquired along the manner. As the IOC requires the host state ‘s authorities to subvention the cost for the Games ( IOC, 2005 ) , the authorities has to pay for cost overproductions. However, it is hard to increase budget significantly during be aftering stages for the Olympics therefore transparence is peculiarly of import particularly the permanent societal and ecological advantages for the host metropolis demand to be communicated. Earlier games, peculiarly Montreal ( 1976 ) had left the host metropoliss with big debts. Finding hosts became progressively hard because the advantages of presenting the Games did non look to fit the affiliated costs. ( Berlemann, 2007 )

Analysis of old incidents is used to place cardinal issues that complicate the organisation of Olympic events. For illustration, there is a danger that concern over old incidents, such as the Munich onslaught or the Atlanta bombardment, will befog other signifiers of onslaught. Conversely, it is hard to formalize risk-based attacks that consider the likeliness of menaces which have yet to be realised. The shutting subdivisions argue that computing machine simulation techniques can be used early in be aftering to assist imagine those scenarios that compromise the safety and security of Olympic events. They can besides be used closer to the Games, as preparation tools to practise cardinal tactics and standard operating processs before unrecorded drills are conducted.

WHERE RELEVANT, TRADE OFFS AND MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES, AND/OR RISK ATTITUDES TO RISK, SHOULD BE EXPLORED

Our group has come up with a non thorough analysis of all the factors for and against by the hosting the YOG in either NTU or NUS. We have tabulated our reappraisal in a tabular array for easy referencing and screening.

Singapore has ever wanted to accomplish excellence in all their projects and to set itself in the universe sphere in footings of fiscal market, medical, logistics, instruction, media, aerospace, touristry etc. The economic competitory is straight linked to present the best it could in this portion of the universe viz. Asia. For many old ages, Singapore competes with neighboring Asean states like Hong Kong, Bangkok etc to showcase it ‘s trim economic capacity and assets every bit good as to carve itself a piece of the planetary strength and economic diverseness. It is hence really of import to choose a good location to house the Sportmen and to guarantee that they will convey back good words to depict Singapore.

Singapore, being such a little metropolis, to house such a large Olympic squad will turn out to be really disputing. It entails significant physical, fiscal, infrastructural capital committedness must be in topographic point. Singapore must recognize the complexness of the undertaking and put in topographic point immense attempts in planning, co-ordinating, guaranting and let for enlargement of capital outgo to follow through. Housing these squad of people will besides be a dashing undertaking given their outrageousness.

Both NUS and NTU have been selected as a locale choice to house the Olympian. There are many factors to see and I have listed below some tabular arraies that examine the relevant trade off in choice one to the other. We will utilize even swap method to choose the right event to host.

Consequence Table for Choosing Youth Olympic Village

Aim

Alternate Venue

Nu

Commuting Time

15 Minutess

Facility Service

Outstanding

Facility Size ( figure of beds )

5000

Cost to YOG ( *include Green Village Cost )

Low

Integrated related Sports, Education and Culture construct

Reasonably Incorporate

Security

SGD 1.5 Mil

Both NUS and NTU are with the premise that their edifice will be ready by YOG 10. We can see really clearly that both installations can supply 5000 bed and therefore we will merely be making an even swap analysis on the remainder of the factors:

Aim

Alternate Venue

Nu

Commuting Time

15 Minutess

Facility Service

Outstanding

Cost to YOG ( *include Green Village Cost )

Low

Integrated related Sports, Education and Culture construct

Reasonably Incorporate

Security

SGD 1.5 Mil

Next we will seek to extinguish Commuting Time with Facility Service. Using NUS 15 proceedingss as standard clip, we can see that with NTU reducinig the traveling clip to 15 proceedingss, the installation service will diminish in service and therefore dropping from Excellent to Moderate.

Aim

Alternate Venue

Nu

Facility Service

Outstanding

Cost to YOG ( *include Green Village Cost )

Low

Integrated related Sports, Education and Culture construct

Reasonably Incorporate

Security

SGD 1.5 Mil

With Commuting Time elimated, the above following barter that we do is to trade Facility Service with Cost to YOG. When we increase the degree of installation service in NTU to fit it with NUS, we can see a trade-off in increasing NTU cost to YOG to be higher.

Aim

Alternate Venue

Nu

Cost to YOG ( *include Green Village Cost )

Low

Integrated related Sports, Education and Culture construct

Reasonably Incorporate

Security

SGD 1.5 Mil

We are eventually left with the Security cost which we can see that NUS is much cheaper at USGD1.5mil. With the analysis of the barter above, we can clearly see that NUS has dominated the ground for lodging the Olympians at NUS alternatively of NTU.

Aim

Alternate Venue

Nu

Security

SGD 1.5 Mil

In footings of hazard tolerance, Singapore is considered as a first universe state and to convey the state to the national sphere, what is more suited than hosting a really high profile international event.

Risk Attitude of Housing the Olympic

Figure 5. Desirability Curve

With the aim of showing Singapore to the universe, it is really much of import and desirable that Singapore will be able to house all Olympians for YOG.

With the location able to house 90 % of the Olympians, it stands at desirableness of 50 % as we may be able to house Singapore Olympians elsewhere but lose the interactivity between our Olympians with the Olympians from the remainder of the universe.

80 % of the Olympians is still minimally acceptable as we are able to do eventuality agreements, but with a desirableness of merely 10 % .

Singapore

Figure 5. Interpreting Risk Attitude

Looking at the curve, we will be able to understand that Singapore has the attitude of hazard seeking for lodging of the Olympians for YOG.

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