POLC78 Flashcards
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Thomas Friedman - \"Break all the rules\"
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Congratulates John Kerry for being nominated for secretary of state - best for the job
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Thomas Friedman - \"Break all the rules\"
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secretary of state - \"hard job\" dealing with difficult foreign governments
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Thomas Friedman - \"Break all the rules\"
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Radical proposal - go around leaders directly to people
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Friedman on Iran
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- Negotiate with Iranian people to lift US sanctions if they develop civil nuclear powers but not bombs (monitored by UN)
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Friedman on Israel-Palestine conflict
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- Give Palestine authority in West Bank and support their state if they accept 2 states for 2 peoples (Arab and Jewish) and have them recognize Israel and renounce violence
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Friedman on Israel-Palestine conflict
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- Thinks of populations: \"Palestinians have embraced two states for two peoples and that Israelis have embraced Palestinian statehood\"
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Thomas Friedman - \"Break all the rules\"
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\"We need to blow this charade wide open by trying to publicly show Iranians, Israelis and Palestinians that they really do have options that their leaders don't want them to see.\"
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Issues with Friedman's Propositions (Drezner)
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1. Kerry not the 'charismatic' politician you want talking to these populations
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Issues with Friedman's Propositions (Drezner)
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2. Iranian people themselves aren't controlling the nuclear program - have been suppressed for years by leaders
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Issues with Friedman's Propositions (Drezner)
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3. Social media (Friedman's proposed way to get message out) magnifies nationalism - are Iranians even opposed to making a nuclear bomb?
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Issues with Friedman's Propositions (Drezner)
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4. Any evidence since Iran's revolution (35 years) of American diplomacy working there?
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Issues with Friedman's Propositions (Drezner)
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5. Iran's regime obsessed with the belief that the United States is trying to make revolution against leaders in the country - won't respond well to this proposition of going to the people
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Daniel Drezner on Thomas Friedman
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\"he's recommending a policy that would actually be counter-productive to any hope of reaching a deal with Iran\"
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Empirical articles sometimes use case studies of specific events
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these look at the key variables in which the researcher is interested using in-depth investigations
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small-n studies
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usually use more than two cases, to get away from being simply an applied theory article, but rarely more than five
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small-n studies data
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is qualitative, meaning that it is a descriptive characterization of the evidence, rather than statistical support
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quantitative research articles
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have hypotheses and values for different variables/parameters with tables that represent the output statistics showing how much effect independent variables have on the outcome/dependent variable
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Data sets can be the results of
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surveys, with each case/event being an individual respondent, or can be information collected from secondary sources on the events that make up a class of events
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large-n studies data
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contains many cases, rarely fewer than a hundred for world politics and a thousand or more for surveys
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statistical significance in results
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marked by asterisks, indicate how sure the author is that the answer he found was not just generated by random fluctuations in the data (more * = more sure)
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theory
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proposed by author to o link the explanatory and outcome variables (for both qualitative ^ quantitative)
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Book reviews are similar to literature reviews
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look usually at single, but sometimes multiple books, summarize argument, approach, findings, address shortcomings
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normative articles (v. empirical)
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argue should, rather than is or might, often written to give suggestions for policy based on author's assumption on how world works, often rooted in theory but dont have one of own. have thesis/argument but no scientific/academic support
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Abstracts
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paragraph-length summaries of the article's main arguments, research design, and findings
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empirical 1st - introduction identifies research question/family of general themes
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that this specific investigation helps explain or explore, and it will usually give a summary explanation of the author's theory
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empirical 1st - introduction closes with line/paragraph
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that outlines research framework used to study the question
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empirical article 2nd section - literature review
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situates specific question in context of broader questions being asked in the research community, discuss other researchers/what they learned, from other fields, flaws/incomplete - solution here
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empirical article 2nd section - literature review
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provides support for author's theory from others, and that hypotheses proposed reasonable in light of what we already know about how variables related
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empirical article 3rd section - research design, broken into sections/sub-sections/diff. headings
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is about hypotheses and variables
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hypothesis
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tells us what relationship the author's theory expects to find between the variables
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theory
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tells us how the variables are connected (the causal mechanism assumed between them)
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independent variable / explanitory
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the cause
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dependent variable
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the effect
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The author is interested in explaining changes in the dependent variable
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by looking at changes in the independent variable(s) he or she is interested in
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measurement problem
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how do I find something about my cases that actually measures the thing I'm interested in (issue with both q&q)
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solving measurement problem
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process is often called 'operationalizing' the variables
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bias
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away from the 'true' relationship towards one that's really just an artifact of how we measured the things that interested us
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measurement is critical facet of empirical investigation
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research design section will almost always include information on measurement strategy as well as the sources used to collect data
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case selection sometimes in measurement section
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how countries, events, or people got picked to be part of the data set; usually identify the mode of analysis
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empirical article 4th section - analysis and results
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quantitative - tables/statistics; qualitative - present cases + salient features
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empirical article 4th section - analysis and results
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o look to see if the data support the author's theory
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data is plural, datum singular
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goes in
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results
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come out
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conclusion
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summary of the research question, the hypotheses, and the findings; surprises/weaknesses/inexplicable cases, where to go next
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econometrics
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research tool used in political science is a branch of statistics
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econometrics
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designed to look at relationships between variables where the cases may or may not be randomly selected, or where the variables themselves might be related to each other
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e primary tool used in econometrics is the regression, more particularly, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression
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tries to predict the change in the dependent variable that we would see if the independent variable was increased by one unit
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values normally reported in the article concern the coefficients, or beta values, for each independent (or 'right hand side') variable
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coefficients - slope of a line: for each independent variable, we multiply the coefficient by the value for our independent variable, add them up, and get a predicted dependent variable value
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coefficient tells us
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how much change in our dependent variable we can expect, on average given the data that went into the model, for a one-unit increase in that independent variable
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to use regression need substantial number of observations/cases to put in data set, min. 20 for most topics= reliable results
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Each observation is one occurrence of the thing we want to study, a.k.a. unit of analysis
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positive (or direct) relationship
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value of the independent variable increases, we expect that the dependent variable increases as well
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negative (or inverse) relationship
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independent variable gets larger, the dependent variable will decrease
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entry in a table is starred*
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normally means that we can be confident that the coefficient of that variable actually has the sign (+/-) (relationship) reported in the table (DOESN'T MEASURE IMPORTANCE)
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formal modeling a.k.a. rational choice analysis, social choice, game theory, spatial models etc
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have discussion of their assumptions, through precise language of mathematics, are MODELS not precise reality depictions
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Quantitative studies say \"variable x influences outcome y,\" / assumption is that this relationship is linear and additive.
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formal models the researcher can delve into the exact relationship, - relationship is multiplicative, exponential, a function of another variable, etc...
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(formal models) simplifications necessary to construct the model - often assumptions
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can be so severe that the behavior predicted by the model may look nothing like behavior as we actually observe it
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(formal models) criticism of rational choice modeling
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makes stringent assumptions about actors' levels of information and their decision-making processes - can be oversimplified
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formal model
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simplified picture of an author's idea of how the world (or some part of it that interests him/her) works, intended to help him/her predict and explain certain behaviors or events of interest
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formal model step 1
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identify broader research question, stream of literature, that this contributes to - what behavior trying to predict?
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formal model step 2
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identify the actors and choices involved - many use these to consider actions conditioned by the actions of others
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formal model step 3
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identify assumptions made by author, relevant to argument or solution?
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(formal model) Theorems - worth noting
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logical findings of a model, statements of the logical relationship between two or more variables
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(formal model) Lemmas - less important (v theorems)
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sometimes presented, intermediate findings on the way to a theorem that are of interest in and of themselves
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(formal model final important part) equilibrium
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stable set of behaviors or choices, arising under specified circumstances, from which deviation by any actor is not logical i.e. predictions of behavior
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equilibria
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thought of as solution to model, subjected to empirical tests
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modelers argue we can overlook unrealistic assumptions in how the predictions are generated
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if the model does a better job of explaining or predicting behavior than other forms of investigation
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important in modeling
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not to let the method overwhelm the substance
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\"Research findings\" based only on the observation of patterns are insufficient
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need logical explanations for patterns i.e. theory
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theories work in 3 ways (1)
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prevent our being taken in by flukes
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theories work in 3 ways (2)
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make sense of observed patterns in ways that can suggest other possibilities
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theories work in 3 ways (3)
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can shape and direct research efforts, pointing toward likely discoveries through empirical observation
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not all social science research wants explaining (theories)
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can be conducted for purpose of description
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paradigms
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fundamental models or frames of reference we use to organize our observations and reasoning (diff. ones = diff. explanations for same thing)
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paradigms are
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implicit, assumed, taken for granted - more like the \"way things are\" than one of many \"ways\"
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in natural sciences, one paradigm succeeds the previous - progress from false view to true one
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social sciences paradigms aren't discarded completely - can gain/lose popularity, but used to represent variety of views/different insights others lack/ignore
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paradigms are not true or false; as ways of looking at things
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paradigms are more or less useful ways of looking at things
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macrotheory
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A theory aimed at understanding the \"big picture\" of institutions, whole societies, and the interactions among societies i.e. Marx's examination of the class struggle
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microtheory
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A theory aimed at understanding social life at the intimate level of individuals/their interactions i.e. Dating behavior, jury deliberations, and student-faculty interactions - close to psych. but doesn't look inside people, but between them
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distinction between macrotheory and microtheory
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cuts across paradigms examined
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Comte's \"positive philosophy\" - 3 stages (paradigm)
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1. theological (God i.e. belief) 2. metaphysical (nature i.e. logic) 3. science (empirical - 5 senses) thought he was starting the 3rd
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Comte's idea of positivism (paradigm)
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in contrast to negative elements of Enlightenment - society can be studied scientifically (foundation)
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Conflict Paradigm (Marx)
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social behavior a process of conflict - attempt to dominate others/avoid being dominated
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Conflict Paradigm doesn't just apply to large relations - like Marx economics
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Simmel looks at intense conflict of tight knit groups v. not of not
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Conflict Paradigm
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may be applied whenever different groups have competing interests
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symbolic interactionism (paradigm)
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process of individuals reaching a common understanding through the use of language and other symbolic systems
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symbolic interactionism paradigm can lend insights into the nature of interactions in ordinary social life
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i.e. dualearner couples made the decision to work complementary shifts in attempts to both maintain employment/care for families
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symbolic interactionism can also help us understand unusual forms of interaction
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i.e. stalking - interaction understood through motivations. development of stalking, recognizing your being stalked etc...
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not all social scientific paradigms emphasize impact of social structure on human behaviour (i.e. effect of norms, values, control agents etc)
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some see people as creating social structures through actions/interactions - creating reality i.e. one interaction defines how the next will go (ethnomethodology)
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ethnomethodology paradigm - \"methodology of the people\"
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people are continuously trying to make sense of the life they experience - everyone is acting like a social scientist
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technique ethnomethodologists use to make sense of how learning about people's expectations makes sense of the world
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break the rules, to violate people's expec tations - i.e. want to talk to proff about paper, he talks sports - reveal your expectation for proff
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Research within the ethnomethodological paradigm often focuses on
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communication
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Structural functionalism paradigm aka social systems theory
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A social entity, such as an organization or a whole society, can be viewed as an organism i.e. functions served by component like parts of body diff. jobs / role of police = social control
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functionalist paradigm
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doesn't make assumption that all functions are good, no justification just looking at their role in society
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Feminist Paradigms
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aspects of social life not revealed by other paradigms i.e. use of masculine pronouns for \"gender ambiguous\" statements
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subjective knowledge (fem paradigm)
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idea that knowledge may derive from personal, subjective experiences, including intuition
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constructed knowledge (fem paradigm)
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position in which women view all knowledge as contextual, experience themselves as creators of knowledge, and value both subjective and objective strategies for knowing
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Rational Objectivity Reconsidered
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society assumed can be studied rationally - but people don't always act rationally
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Rational Objectivity not always center of human decisions
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i.e. for job choice - tradition, loyalty, image, and other factors that compete with reason
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rational objectivity - asch's positivism
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can explain irrationality i.e. experiment with other \"participants\" choosing wrong answer - 1/3 pressured into going with it
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does social life even abide by rational principles?
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in physical sciences, developments such as chaos theory, fuzzy logic, and complexity suggest rethinking
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criticism of positivism challenges the idea that scientists can be as objective as the positivist ideal assumes
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personal feelings can and do influence the problems scientists choose to study, what they choose to observe, and the conclusions they draw from their observations
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subjectivity rules our experiences
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seem wired to seek agreement on what is really real - objective
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agreement reality
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objectivity a matter of communication to find common ground on subjective experiences
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subjectivity is individual
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search for objectivity is social
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theories
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systematic sets of interrelated statements intended to explain some aspect of social life
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thories
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flesh out and specify paradigms
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paradigm offers a way of looking
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theory aims at explaining what we see
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social science based on
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observation
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fact used by social scientists
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to mean some phenomenon that has been observed
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concepts
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basic building blocs of a theory
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concepts
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abstract elements representing classes of phenomena within the field of study
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variable is a special kind of concept
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each variable comprises a set of attributes; i.e. delinquency is made up of delinquent and not delinquent
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Axioms or postulates
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fundamental assertions, taken to be true, on which a theory is grounded
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propositions
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Specific conclusions about the relationships among concepts that are derived from the axiomatic groundwork
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hypothesis
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A specified testable expectation about empirical reality that follows from a proposition; more generally, an expectation about the nature of things derived from a theory. It is a statement of something that ought to be observed in the real world if the theory is correct
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three main elements in traditional model of science
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theory, operationalization, observation
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traditional model of science, scientists begin with a theory
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from which they derive testable hypotheses
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Operationalization
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after defining the variables - step beyond conceptualization. Operationalization is the process of developing operational definitions— that is, specifying the exact operations involved in measuring a variable
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operational definition
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The concrete and specific definition of something in terms of the operations by which observations are to be categorized. The operational definition of \"earning an A in this course\" might be \"correctly answering at least 90 percent of the final exam questions.\"
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Disconfirmability
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the possibility that observations may not support our expectations, in other words the possibility of falsification—is an essential quality in any hypothesis
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Y = f (X)
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a conventional way of saying that Y (for example, delinquency) is a function of (is in some way caused by or depends on) X (for example, social class)
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Operationalization specifies the procedures
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that will be used to measure the variables (general concepts are translated into specific indicators)
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hypothesis testing
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The determination of whether the expectations that a hypothesis represents are, indeed, found to exist in the real world.
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traditional model of science uses
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deductive reasoning
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inductive reasoning
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from particular instances to general principles, from facts to theories - starts from observed data and develops a generalization which explains the relationships between the objects observed
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deductive reasoning
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from the general to the particular, applying a theory to a particular case - starts from some general law and applies it to a particular instance
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for Putnam, \"crime\" can have more than one perpetrator - need to sort ringleaders from accomplices
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Mystery not really solved, lecture a work-in-progress
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Putnam's previous study in Italy 1993 - concluded that the performance of government and other social institutions is powerfully influenced by
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by citizen engagement in community affairs, or what I termed social capital.
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(Putnam) \"social capital\"
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features of social life-networks, norms, and trust-that enable participants to act together more effectively to pursue shared objectives. Is of a \"bridging sort\"
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Social capital refers to social connections and the attendant norms and trustv
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Who benefits from these connections, norms, and trust-the individual, the wider community, or some faction within the community-must be determined empirically, not definitionally.
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Putnam concerned with
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social capital which serves civic ends
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(Putnam) Social capital (relations with one another) not synonymous with
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political participation (relations with political institutions)
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(Putnam) \"civic engagement\"
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refers to people's connections with the life of their communities, not merely with politics
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(Putnam) theory of social capital presumes that
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the more we connect with other people, the more we trust them, and vice versa
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(Putnam) Sorting out which way causation flows-whether joining causes trusting or trusting causes joining-is complicated both theoretically and methodologically
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evidence that the causation flows mainly from joining to trusting
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(Putnam) America's social capital shrinking for more than quarter century
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Membership records decline - PTA, Red Cross, labour unions etc...
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(Putnam) America's social capital shrinking for more than quarter century
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Survey show we don't visit as much, less time devoted to clubs/organizations
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(Putnam) America's social capital shrinking for more than quarter century
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Collective participation decline - rallies, speeches, town hall meetings etc...
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(Putnam) America's social capital shrinking for more than quarter century
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Less group membership and social trust
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(Putnam) Each approach to measuring trends in civic engagement has advantages and drawbacks
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Membership records offer long-term coverage and reasonable precision, but they may underrepresent newer, more vibrant organizations
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(Putnam) Each approach to measuring trends in civic engagement has advantages and drawbacks
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Time budgets - real investments of time/energy in both formal/informal settings, not merely nominal membership, but available data are episodic and drawn from relatively small samples, not entirely comparable across time
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(Putnam) Each approach to measuring trends in civic engagement has advantages and drawbacks
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Surveys more comprehensive in coverage of various types of groups, but (apart from church attendance) comparable trend data available only since the mid-70s, decade after the putative downturn began - may underestimate full decline
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(Putnam) counter-trends
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support groups, neighborhood watch, Washington interest groups, mailing list organizations etc.. on rise but members don't meet - \"tertiary\" groups
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(Putnam) explanations for erosion of social capital
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busyness/time pressure, economic hard times, suburbinization, women in paid labour force, change in American economy, electronic revolution..
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Putnam on possible explanations - need to find out
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Is the proposed explanatory factor correlated with trust and civic engagement?
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Putnam on possible explanations - need to find out
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Is the correlation spurious? (due to other factors)
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Putnam on possible explanations - need to find out
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Is the proposed explanatory factor changing in the relevant way?
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Putnam on possible explanations - need to find out
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Is the proposed explanatory factor vulnerable to the claim that it might be the result of civic disengagement, not the cause?
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(Putnam) education
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strongest correlate to civic engagement - highly educated people more likely to be joiners and trusters (partly due to income but mostly resources/skills/inclinations gotten from school
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(Putnam) education - rise in educational levels should have increased social capital during the last 20 years
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but actually saw a net decline of roughly the same magnitude
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(Putnam) increase in education/decrease in social capital shows us
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educational differences need to be accounted for - shouldn't confuse effects of education with other variables
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(Putnam) increase in education/decrease in social capital shows us
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forces of declining civil engagement effecting everyone - even the educated
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(Putnam) increase in busyness/decrease in social capital
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americans feel more busy but work days decreased from before, but being employed and working longer hours linked to more civic engagement - but not a cause, too many variables, just doesn't prevent CE
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(Putnam) increase in busyness/decrease in social capital
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would seem lower income means less CE but downfall visible at all levels of employment, affluent people more likely not to CE
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(Putnam) increase in mobility, sub-urbanization/decrease in social capital
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thought mobility = uprooting/no CE but no change in moving patterns, if any there is decline in moving, not even moving to suburbs makes diff. only slightly more engaged there
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(Putnam) increase in women at work/decrease in social capital
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women do engage in more CE, their engagement drops more than men but saw work doesn't effect, and women with jobs just in different kinds of groups, spending more time in them, jobless ones spending less
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(Putnam) increase in women at work/decrease in social capital
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maybe type of women working now were those more CE before - left the remaining housewives as those who did less CE anyways - but no experiments on this
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(Putnam) increase in non-nuclear families/decrease in social capital
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divorce rates up, single parent families up etc. married people more CE, family bonds may support trusting - good connection but which caused which? probably not main culprit according to Putnam
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(Putnam) increase in welfare state/decrease in social capital
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would seem some gov't programs kill social capital, but drop in CE same across states with/not welfare but there is positive correlation - more welfare, more CE but what causes what
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(Putnam) increase in racial desegregation/decrease in social capital
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propose 'white flight\" = withdrawing from CE because blacks can be in it, but not true - both leaving proportionally
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(Putnam) increase in age/increase in social capital
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old people more CE, but not life-cycle pattern - old people engaged and trusting than younger people, yet we do not become more engaged and trusting as we age
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(Putnam) increase in age/increase in social capital
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is a generational effect
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(Putnam) generational - social capital link - coming of age after WW2
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less CE
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Putnam generational analysis
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those who were old and CE passing away now, social capital deterioration will continue
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Putnam culprit is television
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last CE generation grew up without TV, TV associated with low social capital, negatively related to social trust/group joining v. newspaper positive
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Putnam culprit is television
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takes up time, makes people untrusting, increases aggressiveness in kids, reduces school achievement, reduces school achievement etc...
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ogy, public policy, and culture. Pool defended what he called \"soft technological determinism.\"
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putnam - Revolutions in communications technologies have profoundly affected social life and culture - decentralized and fragmented
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three classes of things that scientists measure
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direct observables: those things we can observe rather simply and directly, like the colour of an apple or the check mark made in a questionnaire
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three classes of things that scientists measure
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indirect observables, requires \"relatively more subtle, complex, or indirect observations\" i.e. check beside female indirectly tells us person is female
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three classes of things that scientists measure
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constructs—theoretical creations that are based on observations but that cannot be observed directly or indirectly i.e. IQ constructed from observations of questions
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concepts
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a family of conceptions, something we construct, mutual agreement (Kaplan)
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reification
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The process of regarding things that are not real as real i.e. concepts
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conceptualization
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The mental process whereby fuzzy and imprecise notions (concepts) are made more specific and precise. So you want to study prejudice. What do you mean by prejudice? Are there different kinds of prejudice? What are they?
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indicator
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An observation that we choose to consider as a reflection of a variable we wish to study. Thus, for example, attending religious services might be considered an indicator of religiosity.
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dimension
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A specifiable aspect or facet of a concept. Religiosity, for example, might be specified in terms of a ritual dimension, a belief dimension, a devotional dimension, and so forth.
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interchangeability of indicators
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if several different indicators all represent same concept, then all of them will behave the same way that the concept would behave if it were real and could be observe - i.e. all indicators of compassion point to one thing ok, point differently - maybe looking at diff. dimensions
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3 kinds of defn. - real
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reflects the reification of terms
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3 kinds of defn - nominal
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assigned to a term without any claim that the definition represents a \"real\" entity. Nominal definitions are arbitrary—we could define compassion as \"plucking feathers off helpless birds\" if we wanted to
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3 kinds of defn - operational
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specifies precisely how a concept will be measured—that is, the operations we will perform. An operational definition is nominal rather than real, but it has the advantage of achieving maximum clarity about what a concept means in the context of a given study
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continual refinment of concepts occurs in all research methods
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conceptualization -> nominal definition -> operational definition -> measurements in the real world
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Anomie
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disparity between the goals and means prescribed by a society
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conceptualization and operationalization processes can be seen
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as the specification of variables and the attributes composing them i.e. employ- ment status is a variable having the attributes employed and unemployed
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attributes of variables
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need to be exhaustive and mutually exclusive
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nominal measure
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A variable whose attributes have only the characteristics of being jointly exhaustive and mutually exclusive. In other words, a level of measurement describing a variable that has attributes that are merely different from each other, i.e. irrelevant how close groups are etc
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ordinal measure
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A level of measurement describing a variable with attributes one can rank-order along some dimension. An example would be socioeconomic status as composed of the attributes high, medium, low.
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interval measure
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A level of measurement describing a variable whose attributes are rank-ordered and have equal distances between adjacent attributes. The Celsius temperature scale is an example of this, because the distance between 17 and 18 is the same as that between 39 and 40.
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ratio measure
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A level of measurement describing a variable whose attributes have all the qualities of nominal, ordinal, and interval measures, and in addition are based on a \"true zero\" point. Age is an example of a ratio measure.
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reliability
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That quality of measurement method that suggests that the same data would have been collected each time in repeated observations of the same phenomenon. In the context of a survey, we would expect that the question \"Did you attend religious services last week?\" would have higher reliability than the question \"About how many times have you attended religious services in your life?\" This is not to be confused with validity.
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validity
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A term describing a measure that accurately reflects the concept it is intended to measure. For example, your IQ would seem a more valid measure of your intelligence than would the number of hours you spend in the library.
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face validity
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That quality of an indicator that makes it seem a reasonable measure of some variable. That the frequency of attendance at religious services is some indication of a person's religiosity seems to make sense without a lot of explanation. It has face validity.
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criterion-related validity
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The degree to which a measure relates with some external criterion. For example, the validity of occupational qualifying examinations is shown in their ability to predict future evaluations of the individuals' job performances. Also called predictive validity.
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construct validity
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The degree to which a measure relates to other variables as expected within a system of theoretical relationships.
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content validity
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The degree to which a measure covers the range of meanings included within a concept.
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both scales and indexes
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are ordinal measures of variables. Both rank-order the units of analysis using specific variables
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both scales and indexes
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are composite measures of variables—that is, measurements based on more than one data item
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index
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constructed by simply accumulating scores assigned to individual indicators. We might measure prejudice, for example, by adding up the number of prejudiced statements each respondent agreed with.
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scale
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constructed by assigning scores to patterns of responses, recognizing that some items reflect a relatively weak degree of the variable while others reflect something stronger.
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typology
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The classification (typically nominal) of observations in terms of their attributes on two or more variables or concepts. The classification of newspapers as liberal-urban, liberal-rural, conservative-urban, or conservative-rural
