Introduction
The population of the World continues to explode. According to the latest estimates of the United Nations, we are currently about seven and a half billion - an astonishing growth, compared to the start of the twentieth century, when we were just about one and a half billion. The commensurate fall in availability of scarce natural resources can be easily estimated. The potential results of this growth are alarming - more so, in the context of India, as the Indians seem to lead this global population explosion. And, the ill effects do not just limit them to just the ‘fall in availability of per capita resources’ only. It actually starts a scary chain of cause - effect process, with its numerous offshoots, affecting all walks of life – threatening the very existence
...of Life on the Planet. What are the reasons of this population growth? What are its effects on the Global scale? How can it be controlled? These are a few questions which need to be answered in utmost earnest. Policies need to be evolved properly and implemented imminently. As mentioned above though this is a global issue, it kind of accentuates itself even more in the context of India. This write up tries to analyse this problem with the focus on ‘ill effects of over-population- reasons and solutions are dealt with very briefly - as, it is felt that if the ill effects of overpopulation are gauged properly and we are able to make these ill effects sink deeply to the psyche of our masses, bulk of the work in population control would be done. Not only because the catastrophe is knocking right
at our doors; not only because we are the unfortunate leaders so far as the explosion of this menace is concerned; not only because we have to take ourselves out of this slough, but, more so in our pursuit of our re-emergence in the role of ‘VISHWA-GURU’ – we perhaps owe this to the world at large – to show the way out.
The Extent of the Problem
- India started the first national family planning programme of the world as early as 1952.
- India’s population is growing at a rate of 1.4 per cent to 0.7 per cent of China. In about fifteen years, we shall officially surpass China – a country far bigger than us, in area.
- The proportion of undernourished children, in India is very high 40-60 percent to20-40 per cent in Africa.
- As per the Human Development Report, India currently ranks a lowly 130 out of 188 countries.
- Our average per capita income, life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, all are far below than the global average.
- Income Inequality Ratio and Gender Inequality Index of India are higher than their global mean values.
- The Infant Mortality Rate, the Child Mortality Rate and the Maternal Mortality Rate, all are very high for India compared to even the lesser developed nations.
- The next three decades will be a period of just catching up for India, with respect to per capita income even in low lying East Asia – forget the developed world.
- Though, we have had a big rise in the share of working–age population, we have failed to reap the dividends thereof, as a large chunk of our workforce has remained unskilled.
As a result we are left with an increased number of unemployed or underemployed working–age individuals, instead.
In a nutshell and in a simpler language, it can be said that we are amongst the poorest of the poor of the world. Isn’t this scenario shameful? It is not that we have not grown but our population has devoured all our ‘growth’ and has brought our ‘development’ to almost a naught, if to borrow these terms from economics.
Reasons
We all know the reasons of this population explosion. Illiteracy and poverty are the two reasons quoted traditionally – which form a vicious circle, apart from the Malthusian Theory, which says that the the socio–economic growth, in the initial stages, causes the mortality rates to fall drastically with a rise in life expectancy, without any fall in the birth rates, resulting ultimately in a kind of population explosion. The existence of all these factors cannot be denied. But, what disturbs most, is the fact that our improvements on this front are very small .So, we shall have to probe deeper. An almost indifferent political ecosystem can not be absolved of its responsibilities on this front.
Ill Effects
Well, the ill effects of over population are myriads. There is no walk of life which remains untouched by the ill effects of overpopulation. An effort has been made to touch upon a few of these in the following text.
Health Issues
Rise in Air Pollution - With the increasing number of people travelling by their vehicles, the rods clogged with creeping traffic and, the pollution levels skyrocketing, there is a growing concern about the health hazards. How bad is the air quality in India - 11
of the 12 most polluted cities of the world are in our country. It inevitably leads to a rise in respiratory disease and asthma. Increasing numbers of cases of chest pain and throat inflammation are surfacing as terrible air resulting from too many cars on the road, makes daily breathing very uncomfortable. Similar to asthma, the toxic air has led to a rise in the number of people suffering from lung cancer. As people are in closer contact with one another, it becomes ever easier for airborne illnesses such as tuberculosis to spread rapidly. As air pollution worsens due to the large number of people, it causes a depletion in the ozone layer. The depleted ozone layer of the atmosphere no longer protects us fully from the harmful ultraviolet rays of the sun - causing skin problems such as skin cancers and also a host of eye-related problems, such as cataract and blindness, as well as weakening of the human immune system.
Rise in Water Pollution - People die in a large number each year because of contaminated water-related disease. Filtering drinking water is bound to fall short as a method for purifying water, especially when the number of drinkers keeps rising. One of the consequences of overpopulation is the pressure that is put on available water resources in order to serve a growing population. As of 2013, there are an estimated 780 million people without access to safe drinking water and two billion without water sanitation. From the projected population size of around ten billion by 2050, the number of people who will live in urban areas is expected to increase almost two and a
half billion by then, on top of almost four billion people currently, putting the global urban population at about 65 percent in 2050.
Spread of Infectious Viral Diseases - According to the World Health Organization, “inadequate shelter and overcrowding are major factors in the transmission of diseases with epidemic potential.” These include meningitis, typhus, cholera, scabies, malaria, HIV-AIDS etc.
More Drug Resistant Disease – The overall effect of overpopulation and resultant climate change is the lessened ability to treat disease by traditional drugs, as the micro – organisms are getting more and more drug resistant. The rise of Multi Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB), is a case in example.
Shortage of Medical Resources - It can create a dangerous situation. The World Health Organisation underlines that when suffering from overcrowding, “public structures such as health facilities not only represent a concentrated area of patients but also a concentrated area of germs”.
Atmosphere and Ecosystem Issues
Climate Change - Global warming is the first thing that comes to mind. Depletion of ozone layer, receding of glaciers, quick changes in weather, rising mean sea water levels, sinking of islands, erratic rainfalls, excessive floods, excessive draught, frequent avalanches, intense storms – these all are reminiscent of the underlying fact that the Nature has been intruded more than warranted and, as a result we are bound to face her wrath. All this is an offshoot of overpopulation.
Deforestation – Deforestation is a very big contributor to climate change. Trees are being felled on an unprecedented scale for housing needs and for timber etc. At present India has a tree cover of about 21 per cent of the land area which actually should be minimum 33 per
cent of the land area. From regulating quantum of rains, to clean atmosphere, to soil quality maintenance, to conservation of biodiversity – everything is affected negatively by deforestation. Also, deforestation affects the animal life adversely and causes change in the migration pattern of many species of animals making them an easy prey for the poachers.
Mass Extinctions of Living Beings - All of this encroachment on the natural habitats of animals will lead to mass extinction of numerous species of living beings. 20 plant and animal species become extinct every hour, globally, according to a study. Are we even aware of the imminent danger to the biodiversity, on which quality of human life depends so much?
Overfishing – Overpopulation adversely affects not only the land ecosystem but life in water is hurt, too. As human population shoots up, the exploitation of natural resources grows and it tamps down the commercial fish stock available to eat. Many commercial fish stocks are already in the stage of serious decline, and to add to the woes the global seafood demand is expected to grow another 50million tons by 2025.
Intensive Farming - Intensive farming done for the purpose of sustaining the overpopulation kills beneficial organisms, degrades the very soil it depends upon, causes the genetic erosion of crops and livestock, increases susceptibility to flooding, creates polluted run off and clogged water systems, destroys natural habitat and, downgrades biodiversity which ultimately results in new challenges to human life.
Overgrazing – More population needs more food. More food means more livestock. This leads to overgrazing. It means that rotation of pasture for grazing the livestock cannot be done. This, as a result degrades the
soil and lead to a range of other environmental issues.
Desertification - Deforestation and overuse of dry land which causes the upper productive crust of the soil to be removed, for cultivation or other purposes, eventually leads to desertification. According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development, desertification threatens the livelihood of about 1 billion people across the globe —a number that is only likely to increase with the further growth in population.
Socio Economic Issues
Higher Unemployment Rates - Overpopulation lead to fewer opportunities and greater competition. This leads to an imbalance between the supply of labour and the demand for it giving rise to unemployment and underemployment. Underemployment leads to low savings i.e., low rates of capital formation, hence, low rates of investments, which in turn leads to low economic growth and a further low rate of employment and ultimately a low standard of living. Thus a vicious circle is generated aggravating poverty further – as they say while deciphering the vicious circle of poverty and, overpopulation- rich get riches and poor get children!
Higher Crime Rates - As resources get more scarce, employment rates fall and, other difficulties of living in packed urban areas rise, so do crime rates. It has been observed that in the countries which have controlled population, crime rate is comparatively low. When people are not provided with the basic necessities, crime rate shoots up .These crimes take all all types of forms- ranging from crime against women, children and elderly to murder and loot etc. Lack of education further reduces the tendency of following laws, in general.
High Income Disparity – High income disparity may not be such a big issue in
developed nation as it could prove to be in poorer Nations, where even bare minimum necessities of the masses are not fulfilled. This issue causes all sort of distortions in the society. A wide divide is created among sections of people creating a whole range of law and order problems. In developing countries like India a whole spectrum of society is manifested ranging from the most developed sections of the masses to the poorest of the poor as explained by Riggs in his Prismatic Sala Model. This distortion cause whole range of social strife, which again acts as a drag and sucks the nation into a vicious circle.
Other Social Issues – An overpopulated society manifests itself with all kind of abominable social challenges viz., dowry, early marriage, khap panchayat ‘justice’ (sic), female foeticide etc. All of these act as a drag to the development of the nation.
Politico Juridical Issues
Normally an overpopulated country and democracy don’t gel together properly. Fortunately, it is not so with India. But, we should get complacent at our own great risk. Growing population is causing a simmering discontent among different sections of societies. A spark neglected burns the house. A few points are briefly touched hereunder.
Overburdened Judiciary – Justice delayed is justice denied. Number of pending cases in Indian courts run into crores. This doesn’t augur well for our democracy and political set up and equilibrium. Democracy work on the principle of ‘separation of powers’ and check and balance system between different organs of the government. An effective and independent judiciary is a sine qua non for an effervescent democracy. If timely and effective justice is denied to the people, they
start losing hope in the democracy. And, in a huge country like ours this discontent might have all the potential of an uncontrolled strife. So, beware! The moot point is that an under effective judiciary fails in bringing the government to right tracks for the formulation and implementation of proper welfare laws, which has the potential to take the things to a systemic failure.
Politics of Division – People get the government they deserve. An offshoot of overpopulation in India is low level of education. People have not been able to throw off the yoke of communalism, casteism and regionalism in India. India being a diverse country that she is, unscrupulous politicians thrive on her divisibility and accentuate it further . So, instead of politics of development, we see politics of division in India. It results in more corruption and lesser development, which again drags the nation into the callous vicious circle mentioned above.
Disparity in Performance – Democracy is a game of numbers - examine this sentence in the light of our federal structure and disparity among state, regions and communities on the front of their performance in the field of population control. Certain sections are doing better, in comparison to others. Importantly, in the federal structure of our polity, this results in penalising those doing better and, gratification of those doing not so good. It skews whole the scenario in a wrong perspective. Eyebrows have started being raised. The status quo can not be maintained for long. If timely proper steps are not taken, we would be inviting grave trouble to our dear nation.
International Ramifications – When a nation is bursting at seams due to
population and, the material resources and opportunities to work are scarce, the work force starts moving out. Labour is a factor of production. Cheaper labour means more competitively priced products. So, in the initial stages the producers of the world seem to welcome the labour from overpopulated countries like India. But, this is not the whole story. Firstly, as discussed elsewhere in this article, our work force is not a skilled work force, so, lesser remittances flow in. Secondly, when the local people start losing their jobs, they start rising against this cheaper work force of thirld world nations and a strife begins. No government likes that the local populace starts getting jobless on a large scale. To add insult to injury, our work force reaches the foreign countries of import with all its baggage of indigenous culture – from lifestyle habits to our social habits (like that of palming the grease to get work, etc.). So, the importing nation realizes that not only the local population is getting jobless but, their work ethics and social behavior patterns are also getting distorted. This phenomenon starts causing unrest in the local society and, incidents like what happened in Australia a few years back, against the Indians – start occurring world over. The international image of the country is dented. Now a days, globally , a trend of electing right wing governments is also on the rise. This is making things further difficult to countries like India regarding international movement of work force.
Solution
A lot of literature is available on it- advocating the use of contraceptives to educating the masses .This aspect is deliberately being touched very briefly
here. Making a policy is not very difficult-its implementation is. But, as they say a policy which does not yield desired results is not a good policy at all. We are lacking the will power. The will power will come, when we actually cease to shut our eyes to the monstrous dimensios of this conundrum of overpopulation and, realize its truly disastrous character. All sections of the society will need qualitative involvement to do away with this menace. Carrot and stick policy needs to be followed. People need to be made aware of the problem on a war footing. To, top all the measures we need a law – a strict legislation, immediately, if we have to keep our chances of surviving with dignity, high.
Conclusion
It is not that we, as a nation, have not developed at all. It is not that our future is very bleak and, we have done nothing at all on the front of population stabilization. Presently, we are in the last stage of population explosion. Things will improve in the long run. The question is – how long that long run would be. We just can not allow things to move at their own pace otherwise, we will be left far behind. It is not about just feeding our population and, providing bare minimum amenities. It is about leading a qualitative life. It is about national pride. As stated elsewhere in this article, next three decade we will just be trying to catch up only with our South Asian brethren. Such is our level of backwardness. The objective of this write up is not to depress and render ourselves frozen with
fear. The objective, on the contrary, is to realize the magnitude of the menace and to get ready for imminent action. And, do not forget, we need to show the way out to the whole world.