Forecasting Denosumab Essay Example

is not as compelling. But on gathering more information regarding the competitors the proposition is quite compelling and it could make the drug quite a success. Here is why: 1. The clinical trials head to head with competitors as well placebo controlled trials have shown statistically significant reductions in fracture risk. In addition acceptance data comparing weekly dosing to twice yearly injections was in the favor of denosumab. 2. Denosumab has been FDA approved for 2 indications rather than 1 which is true for most of its competition. Both the conditions are prevalent in the population and their incidence is growing. This will allow the drug to tap unmet needs for the available market. 3. No new drugs are to be available in the market for this indication in the next 5 years so it makes the product very lucrative.

How will the customers react when Denosumab is introduced? The customers for the drug are the patients, providers (physicians) and the insurance companies. 1. The patients will see ease of dosing as well as improved results as compared to the market. They will identify for the drug to decrease disease complications and improved bone health. Give patients alternatives to treatment for their own disease. 2. Physicians will see increased compliance of the drug in their patients as the drug is not patient administered but provider administered. Will limit the variations in dosing patterns and practices. Provide alternatives for treatment. Improve revenue as it is administered in the office rather than at home. 3. Payers: Payers may react to the drug unfavorably as it is at a higher cost as compared to other therapies. They

may add the drug to the formulary on a tiered system. But they would be more willing to pay for osteoporosis prevention and management rather than the complications that arise from it.

How will you develop a forecast for Denosumab? The forecast will be developed on the basis of demand forecasting analysis. The forecast will be based on analysis of a variety of market and product-specific factors:

1. Historical, current, and future trends: The trends for the use of the drug in the future market. Also analyzing the market share of each of the drugs and the dosing patterns.

2. Existing and undiagnosed patient population: The market for osteoporosis drugs and the bone metastasis drugs is increasing as the age of the population is increasing and disease prevalence is increasing. International Osteoporosis Foundation estimates that the disease affects 200 million women worldwide - approximately one-tenth of women aged 60, one-fifth of women aged 70, two-fifths of women aged 80 and two-thirds of women aged 90. USA statistics report that by the year 2010, it is estimated that more than 52 million women and men in this same age category will be affected and, if current trends continue, the figure would climb to more than 61 million by 2020. More than half of the population at risk is unidentified.

3. Unmet market needs: The market needs for osteoporosis are existent and prevalent. In addition the available drugs for skeletal related events for bone metastases are limited.

4. Existing products patent expiration dates: Fosamax is now generic. Actonel patent expires in May 2012; Boniva first patent expires in March 2012. This allows

the threat of generic substitution and can affect market share.

5. New market entrants: No new drugs are in the pipeline for the treatment of osteoporosis.

6. Differentiation and competitive advantage: Differentiation in terms of disease indications, drug formulation and dosing. Thus having a competitive advantage.