EC364: Game Theory in Economics, Business & Finance – Flashcards
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solution concept for games in extensive forms and with finite time horizon that starts from the last decision node and works backwards to the first one.
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Backward induction
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coordination game with at least two equilibria, none of them Pareto dominating due to the different preferences (meeting at the party or at the pub).
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Battle of sexes
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Such a game involves a move of nature determining what type players are. A Bayes-Nash (or simply 'Bayesian') equilibrium is a strategy profile that prescribes optimal behaviour for each and every type of a player, given the other player's strategies and given beliefs about other player's types.
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Bayes-Nash equilibrium
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principle for calculating conditional probabilities. It starts from the notion that the (unconditional) probability of a joint even XY is the conditional probability for X given that Y has actually occurred times the (unconditional) probability of Y.
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Bayes' rule
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optimal move (in terms of individual preferences) in response to a possible move of opponent; most important aspect of Nash equilibrium.
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Best response
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finitely repeated entry deterrence game. Using backward induction it follows that in every round, the weak monopolist has no incentive to fight, despite the number of repeats. If asymmetric information prevails, a weak monopolist should randomize between fighting and conceding while a strong monopolist should always fight.
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Chain-store paradox
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coordination game with multiple Nash equilibria, but each player prefers a different equilibrium outcome. Players have options to surrender or challenge the other. Who stays longest - wins, 'chicken' - backs down.
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Chicken game
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when a person can compare any two options (or outcomes) to say which one is preferred or whether they are equally liked.
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Complete preferences
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sum of all payoffs is always constant, regardless of the combination of strategies. If the payoff sum is positive, all players can win, although the distribution will generally be unequal. A special case is a zero-sum game , where one player's gain is the loss of the others.
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Constant-sum game
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players are able to make binding commitments (possibly via third parties). - non-cooperative: players cannot make binding commitments; hence they will act in their personal rather than collective interests (e.g. PD-games).
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(Non-)Cooperative game - cooperative
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game with at least two equilibria. In a pure coordination game, there is no conflict of interest and players are indifferent between equilibria. In order to realize one of those equilibria, players have to coordinate their strategies.
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Coordination game
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game in which the strategy set of at least one player is infinite (example: Cournot's duopoly model).
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Continuous strategies game
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model where two firms compete in the same market, in which each firm selects the quantity that maximizes its profit in response to any (expected) output decision of the opponent. The so derived reaction function is a forerunner of the best response functions, which intersect at a fixed point forming a Nash equilibri-um.
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Cournot's duopoly model
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when it is known that to stick to the commitment is a dominant strategy when it due; i.e. when it is in the own interest of the person who announces it to fulfil the commitment (problem of time inconsistency).
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Credible commitment
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description of a game played against 'nature' (decision theory);payoff matrix - description of a game played against other actors (game theory).
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Decision matrix
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strategy that gives the highest payoff regardless an opponent's move.
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Dominant strategy
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strategy that regardless of opponent's move give lower payoff than another strategy, so that no rational player would choose it.
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Dominated strategy
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a paradox in decision theory in which people's choices violate the 'sure-thing' principle of Savage's subjective expected utility theory. (Urns with red and black balls).
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Ellsberg's paradox
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sequential game with two firms: A considers entering the market, B can fight or back down in response (see also chain-store paradox).
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Entry deterrence game
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probability weighted average of the payoffs corresponding to alternative outcomes of an action.
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Expected value (EV)
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probability weighted average of the utilities of payoffs corresponding to alternative outcomes of an action.
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Expected utility (EU)
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player that moves first in a sequential game can determine the outcome of the game.
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First mover advantage
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mechanism to choose between alternative Nash equilibria, introduced by Thomas Schelling in 1960 ('Strategy of Conflict').
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Focal point
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state that in any infinitely repeated game an equilibrium exists that gives each player an average payoff that is not lower than their maximin payoff in the stage-game provided players are sufficiently patient. They are called 'folk theorems' be-cause nobody knows who first invented them into game theory.
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Folk theorems
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1. players (strategies and preferences); 2. rules; 3. information; 4. payoffs.
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Four elements of strategic games:
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sequential game in extensive form, where trust is placed or not placed and the trustee may have a temptation to abuse; one-sided prisoners' dilemma (David Hume's problem).
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Game of trust
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graphical representation of a sequential game (extensive form), which provides information about the players, payoffs, strategies, and the order of moves. It consists of nodes, which are points at which players take actions, connected by edges, which represent the actions that may be taken at that node. Terminal nodes represent an end to the game where the payoffs earned by each player are shown.
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Game tree
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Set of decision nodes at a given stage in a game between which a player is unable to distinguish.
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Information set
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game which is played several times (repeated game) and that allows for a strategy to be contingent on past moves and thus for reputation effects and retribution.
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Iterated game
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representation of a random game specifying by vector of possible outcomes with prescribed probabilities.
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Lottery
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maximising minimum profits.
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Maximin
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minimising maximum loss.
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Minimax
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refers to external effects and random outcomes together with the distribution of probabilities of different scenarios.
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Move of nature
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fixed point where the best response of one player is mapped into the best responses of the other players.
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Nash equilibrium
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non-cooperative game, where the dominant strategy of each player leads to a Pareto inefficient outcome.
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Prisoners' dilemma
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expectations that are correct on average (stochastic fulfilment of expectations).
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Rational expectations
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behavioural assumption, where players have consistent preferences and expectations and act according to their best interest; a strong version of rationality assumes that actors know everything that can be known and make no mistakes.
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Rationality
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function that shows the best response of one firm to any action taken by its rival; special case of best response function in terms of Cournot's duopoly game.
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Reaction function
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Subtree of an extensive form game that fulfils the following criterion: If a decision node belongs to the subtree then all decision nodes which are in the same information set belong to the subtree. Note that the whole game tree is always a regular subtree of itself.
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Regular subtree
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shows that a shared bill in a restaurant tends to be higher than if each person pays one's own bill; version of the 'tragedy of the commons'.
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Restaurant-bill game
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player is prepared to pay less than the expected gain to enter the game (prefers sure thing to a gamble with the same expected value).
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Risk aversion
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player is indifferent between a sure thing and a gamble with the same expected value.
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Risk neutrality
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player is prepared to pay more than the expected gain to enter the game (prefer a gamble to a sure thing with the same expected value).
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Risk loving
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agreement that is a Nash equilibrium in a game.
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Self-enforcing agreement
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selfish preferences do not take into account the outcome of one's actions on other persons; altruistic or hostile preferences take such effects into account, positive in the first, negative in the second case.
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Selfish, altruistic and hostile preferences
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game in which players make decisions in a certain predefined order, and in which at least some players can observe the moves of players who preceded them. This type of games is represented by game trees (extensive form) and solved using the concept of backward induction and (if required) additional concepts such as subgame perfect equilibrium.
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Sequential game
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game where one player sends signals to other players in order to influence their move, e.g. a job candidate suggest to the potential employer what wage is ap-propriate for him given his education (whisky vs. tonic game).
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Signalling game
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game with infinite expected value, but actually people are willing to pay only a very small amount to play it.
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St. Petersburg paradox
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Payoff matrix; extensive form - Game tree.
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Strategic (normal) form
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pure: a tuple of definite moves/actions a player assigns to each of his information sets; mixed: a probability distribution defined over the pure strategy of a player. A player would only use a mixed strategy when she is indifferent between pure strategies.
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Strategy
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a regular subtree together with the corresponding payoffs.
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Subgame
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Strategy, the relevant parts of which are best responses of a player in every subgame of the game.
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Subgame perfect strategy
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Nash equilibrium corresponding to a profile of subgame perfect strategies.
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Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium
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all possible paths a game can take starting from a particular decision node. Note that the whole game tree is a subtree of itself.
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Subtree of an extensive form game
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Expected utility with subjective probabilities.
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Subjective expected utility
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Pivotal axiom in Leonard Savage's (1954) subjective probability theory. It demands a decision maker to neglect potential events for which the outcome is equal across options.
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Sure-thing principle
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Phenomenon that occurs when it is not in the best interest of a player to carry out a threat or promise that was initially designed to influence the other player's actions.
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Time (or dynamic) inconsistency
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strategy in an infinitely repeated prisoners' dilemma game: cooperate until partner defects, then defect, but when partner shows readiness to go back to cooperation, also change back to cooperation.
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Tit-for-Tat ('this for that')
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title of a famous article by Garrett Harding (1968). Problem of common (or open-access) resources provoking free-rider behaviour which is a variant of the prisoners' dilemma; there exists no excludability to use the resource; the result is tragic because all loose.
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Tragedy of the commons
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A strategy that is not dominated and dominates all other strategies for some strategies profiles of all other players.
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Weakly dominant strategy