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Weather

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atmospheric conditions over short periods of time.

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Climate

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refers to characteristic atmospheric conditions over a long period of time.

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Climate zones Defined using Koeppen System

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Uses monthly average temperature and precipitation associated with different types of vegetation

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Atmospheric Conditions-Permanent gasses

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Gasses whose proportions stay constant Ex. Nitrogen

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Atmospheric Conditions-Variable gasses

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Gasses whose proportions vary with time and space Ex. Carbon dioxide

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Gasses

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Percentages in atmosphere remain essentially constant • Nitrogen-78.1%, oxygen-20.95%, and argon .93% • Compose approx. 99% by volume • Relatively unimportant to atmospheric dynamics

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Variable Gasses -Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

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Extremely important, but small in percentage (approx. 0.038%) - Describe in parts per million (ppm) or billion (ppb) • Released naturally by volcanic activity, plant and animal respiration, decay of organic material (sources of CO2) • Removed through photosynthesis, chemical weathering in soil, and mixing of air and seawater (sinks of CO2) It's true that natural sources of CO2 are huge, but they are balanced by natural sinks. Human contributions are tipping this balance.

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Variable Gasses -Carbon Dioxide (CO2)-cont.

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Anthropogenicsources - Burning of fossil fuels increases CO 2. - Deforestation decreases amount used by trees, increasing ppm in atmosphere. • Natural processes that remove CO 2don't work as rapidly as amounts are increasing. • Levels increase by 2 ppm per year. This NASA image shows the monthly average of carbon dioxide in the middle of the troposphere made from data acquired by the infrared sounder during July 2009. These maps are the first-ever depictions of the global distribution of CO2 based solely on observations. Note where CO2 concentrations are higher...

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Variable Gasses -Water Vapor

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Created from evaporation at Earth's surface. • Returns to surface through hydrologic cycle. • Air temperature is primary control of water vapor content.

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Variable Gasses -Ozone O3

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Forms when atomic oxygen (O) collides with oxygen molecule (O2) • Mostly found in stratosphere (high up) • Acts as a shield for ultraviolet light and is essential to life on earth • Chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs) partially destroyed ozone shield - Increases skin cancer, cataracts, caused local crop failures • Can also be found in smog. Near ground, ozone is harmful.

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Variable Gasses -Methane (CH4)

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• Primary constituent of natural gas • Occurs naturally from bacterial decay, intestinal tracks of termites, cows, and sheep • Anthropogenic sources: coal mines, oil wells, leaking natural gas pipelines, rice cultivation, landfills, and livestock • Levels have doubled since 1700 and is a significant contributor to warming • Methane Hydrates -locked in ocean floor -frozen. If temps warm ocean enough, large amounts of stored methane hydrate could be released. OTOH they could be energy source.

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Variable Gasses -Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

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• Natural sources include microbiological processes in soil and ocean and wildfires. • Anthropogenic sources include fertilizers and burning fossil fuels. • Contributes to atmospheric warming.

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Variable Gasses -Halocarbons

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Chemical compounds containing halogen elements bonded with carbon • Include CFCs and are almost entirely anthropogenic • Used in industrial processes, fire fighting, and as fumigants, refrigerants, and propellants • Contribute to warming in troposphere and ozone depletion in stratosphere

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Aerosols

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Microscopic liquid or solid particle that acts as nuclei for water particles to condense to form clouds • Associated with air pollution • Natural sources: desert dust, wildfires, sea spray, and volcanoes • Anthropogenic sources: burning of forests and fossil fuels

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Aerosols Effects

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Effects are complex I. Volcanic Activity -Ben Franklin realized could affect weather (1784)! I. Ash and dust block sun II. Gas sulfur dioxide reacts to form sulfuric acid in atmosphere block sun II. Biggie eruption: Tambora1815 (1816 was the year without a summer -crops failed, many died) III.Potential threats: Yellowstone and Long Valley Caldera AUGUST2007 GREECE SLASH AND BURN AMAZON Human produced ash and soot from forest fires/slash burning Increased dust due to desertification Saharan Dust off West Africa,2003

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Greenhouse gases

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Nitrous oxide Water Carbon dioxide Methane Sulfur hexafluoride

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Structure of Atmosphere, revisited

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• Defined by changes in air temperature • Troposphereis where weather happens • Stratospheredry, cold layer - Little weather occurs here - Strong winds circulate aerosols

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Atmospheric Circulation

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Responsible for location of climate zones • At equator, warm air rises towards poles - As it rises, it cools and loses moisture as rain • Dry air descends between 15oand 30oNorth and South - Descending air produces high pressure and low rainfall - Desert and semi-arid regions of world • High pressures at North and South Poles - Polar deserts

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Climate Change

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Currently, the climate is warming - Based on 30 years of warming in atmosphere - Also, global increase in sea temp, widespread melting of snow, glaciers, ice sheets, and permafrost, and sea level rise • Referred to as global warming - 90% probability that humans are responsible - Ecosystems capable of adjusting, but changes are too fast for these to take place • Studies changes in atmosphere and linkages with lithosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere

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Cryosphere

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Part of the hydrosphere where most of the water is frozen • Includes permafrost, sea ice, ice caps, glaciers, and ice sheets • Glaciers - Flow from high to low elevations under weight of accumulated ice - Have budgets with input and output - Periods of continental glaciation called glacial intervals • Interglacial intervals occur in between

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Glaciations

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• Refer to multiple advances and retreats of glaciers. • Rare during the earth's 4.6 billion year history. • Several in the last 1 billion years. • We are now living during one of those events that began 2.5 million years ago.

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Pleistocene Epoch

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• Multiple ice ages • Glaciers covered 30% of Earth (today 10%) • Maximum extent 21,000 years ago • Global sea level >100 m (330 ft) lower than today

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Glaciations Causes of Glaciation

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• Mostly unknown • Related to position of continents • Changes in amount of solar radiation influence advance and retreat - Milankovitch cycles - Changes in Earth's orbit around Sun, tilt and wobble of Earth's axis of rotation - Correlate well with change in global temperatures • They are not the primary cause of glaciation or global temperature changes.

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Milankovitch Cycles

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periodic variations in tilt, eccentricity, and wobble in the earth's orbit; Milutin Milankovitch suggested that it is responsible for cyclic weather changes. Changes in the shape earth's orbit and tilt that cause glacial periods and interglacial periods.

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Milankovitch hypothesis The Greenhouse Effect

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Earth's temperature depends on three things: 1. Amount of sunlight received • Most is ultraviolet with short wavelength • About 2/3 is absorbed to warm the atmosphere 2. Amount of sunlight reflected • Mostly reflected as infrared radiation 3. Degree to which the atmosphere retainsheat • Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, and halocarbons absorb IR radiation • Gasses act as "blanket" to retain heat in troposphere

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The Greenhouse Effect, cont.

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• Greenhouse effect is a natural and necessary process. - Earth would be 33ocolder without it. - All surface water would be frozen. - Little life would exist. - Natural effect is from water vapor. • Absorption by greenhouse gasses (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons) - Enhancethe greenhouse effect - Leads to global warming

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Carbon Dioxide and Greenhouse Effect

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Carbon dioxide accounts for most of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. • It is the most studied. Figure 11.6 But other Greenhouse Gas (GHG) levels are changing too

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Air Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

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CO2 concentrations from air bubbles in glacial ice in Antarctic ice sheet • CO2 concentrations correlate with temperature

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Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

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• Since the burning of fossil fuels, CO2concentration has increased exponentially. • Measurements are from glacial ice and from Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Atmospheric concentrations continue to rise and are likely to continue.

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Global Temperature Change- Last 800,000 Years

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• Low temperatures coincide with major continental glaciations, high temperatures with interglacial periods

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Global Temperature Change- Last 150,000 Years

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Last major interglacial period, Eemian, sea level was 4-6 ft higher than today

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Global Temperature Change- Last 18,000 Years

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Cold interval, Younger Dryas, occurred 11,500 years ago, followed by warming to Holocene maximum. • Recent cooling, called Little Ice Age, 15th-19th centuries.

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Global Temperature Change- Last 1000 Years

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Several warming and cooling trends • Warming in 11-1300 allowed Vikings into Iceland, Greenland, and North America

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Global Temperature Change- Last 140 Years

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1750, warming trend begins until 1940s. • 1910 to 1998, global temperatures rise. • Temperatures in past 30 years are warmest since monitoring began.

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Why Does Climate Change?

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Milankovitch Cycles - Natural changes in Earth's Orbit, tilt, and precession - Explain some changes, but not the observed large-scale changes • Ocean conveyor belt - Circulation of ocean water in oceans - Can cause fast changes in climate - Keeps Northern Europe warmer than without it

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Ocean Conveyor Belt -Atlantic Ocean

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West side, strong warm current flows northward to Arctic. • At Greenland, it is cool and salty and sinks to bottom. • Cold, dense water flows southward around Africa. Figure 11.10 WHEN LAKE AGASSIZ DRAINED INTO THE Atlantic Ocean via the SAINT LAWRENCE River system, - The COLD FRESH WATER SAT ON TOP OF THE OCEAN WATER AND CAUSED EUROPE TO COOL!

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Younger Dryas Event

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A rapid return to glacial conditions in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900- 11,500 years before present EUROPE GOT COLD DURING THE YOUNGER DRYAS = NOTICE THE EXTENT OF SEA ICE Importance of Oceans in the Climate System Change in sea surface pH caused by anthropogenic CO2 between the 1700s and the 1990s

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United Nations International Panel on Climate Change UNIPCC

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UN report found that shutdown of conveyor belt current has occurred historically, but there is no evidence that it will occur again this century. • There is sufficient evidence to state: 1. There is widespread evidence of human influence on global climate. 2. Warming is now occurring. 3. Mean surface temperature of Earth will likely increase between 1.80and 40C (30and 70F) during this century.

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Solar Forcing

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There is a relationship between changes in solar energy and climate change. • Medieval Warm Period (A.D. 1000-1300) corresponds to increased solar radiation. • Little Ice Age corresponds to decreased solar radiation. • Partially explains climate change, but effect is very small.

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Volcanic Forcing

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Ashfrom eruptions becomes suspendedin the atmosphere, reflects sunlight having a coolingeffect. • Mount Tambora, 1815 eruption contributed to cooling in North America and Europe. • Mount Pinatubo in 1991 counterbalanced global warming during 1991 and 1992.

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Anthropogenic Forcing

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• Mathematical models of climate canisolate human causes from solar and volcanic forcing of climate change. • Models found that present warming greatly exceeds natural variability. • Models agree with climate change predicted from greenhouse gas forcing.

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Could the warming be natural?

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The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. Green = countries that have signed and ratified Kyoto Protocol. Yellow = countries that have signed and are expected to ratify. Red = counties that have no intention to sign Kyoto Protocol. Grey = countries that are undecided.

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Kyoto Protocol

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December 18, 2009 -Copenhagen Climate Conference Ends With Whimper, No Legally Binding Pact, No Commitment to Pursue One in 2010 • April 2010 -More than 110 nations including top greenhouse gas emitters led by China and the United States back the non-binding Copenhagen Accord for combating climate change. -The accord, falling short of a binding treaty sought by many nations, sets a goal of limiting global warming to below 3.6 Fahrenheit. It endorses the continuation of the KyotoProtocol, but does not spell out what each nation has to do.

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Climate Patterns • Climate important to agriculture

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Climate important to agriculture - Rainfall patterns, soil moisture, etc. - Northern Canada and Eastern Europe may be more productive. - Lands closer to equator become more arid. • Violent storms may intensify - Warmer oceans provide more energy.

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Changes in Hydrosphere

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• Increased sea surface temperature • Increased precipitation in polar and temperate regions • Decreased precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions Global and hemispheric annual combined land-surface air temperature and Sea Surface Temp anomalies (°C) (red) for 1850 to 2006 relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean, along with 5 to 95% error bar ranges, from HadCRUT3 (adapted from Brohanet al., 2006). The smooth blue curves show decadal variations.

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Rising sea level

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- Thermal expansion of ocean - Melting glaciers - Increases coastal erosion - Increases vulnerability of structures to waves - Flood low-lying Pacific and Indian Ocean islands - Flood coastal cities, New York, Boston, Tampa, Washington, D.C. Projections of sea level rise based on the melting of theGreenland ice sheet indicate that a rise of 6 meters is possible within centuries. NASA GSFC scientists monitor snow and ice, the global water cycle, and the oceans, with NASA satellites to investigate current and future climate change. Climate change processes may impact the coastal zone, water resources, and water quality regionally and globally.

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Sea level rise in Bangladesh

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decrease in salinity of North Atlantic waters since1960s.May cause disruption of ocean currents. Freshwater from Greenland ice melting could accentuate this

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Changes in Cryosphere

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• Global warming effects occur more rapidly here. • Shrinking permafrost. • Decreased Arctic Ice cap, ice sheets, and glaciers - Affects communities dependent on snowmelt for water supply Global Glacier Volume Change (1960-1998)-The line with closed circles represents the total change in glacial mass worldwide over a 28-year time period. To interpret this line, consult the scale on the right side of the graph, which shows change in cubic kilometers. Glaciers worldwide have been shrinking.

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OBSERVED CHANGES IN SNOW COVER, SEA ICE AND SEA LEVEL

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IPCC, 2007 1961 to 2003 global mean sea level rise: 1.8 ± 0.5 mm yr-1 thermal expansion contribution: 0.42 ±0.12 mm yr-1 melting of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets: 0.7 ±0.5 mm yr-1

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Effects: Snow and ice

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Grinnell Glacier, Glacier Nat.Park 1900-2008 Glaciers melting at accelerated pace.Greenland is melting

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Changes in Biosphere

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• Shifts in range of plants and animals • Changes in plant and animal habitat - Mosquitoes are moving to higher elevations. - Northward movement of butterflies in Europe and birds in U.K. - Expansion of sub-alpine forests in Cascades. - Sea ice melting stresses seabirds, walruses, and polar bears. - Warming in Florida Keys bleaching coral reefs. - Seawater increasing in acidity, threatening coral animals and algae. • These are areas of extreme animal diversity.

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Tropical disease will spread Severity of Coral Bleaching

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• The severity of the bleaching has increased dramatically just from 1997.Prior to that, monitoring of bleaching activity began in 1979. The chart below shows how the number of reef provinces w/ moderate-severe bleaching has fluctuated over 20yr period.

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Desertification and Drought

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• Climate change increases human induced conversion of land to desert • Causes soil and natural vegetation degradation - Long-term loses for agriculture and grazing • Increase in drought events

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Wildfires

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Wildfire events will increase due to global warming. - Both in in frequency and intensity graph shows the percentage increase in area burned by wildfires, frompresent-day to the 2050s, The model follows a scenario of moderately increasing emissions of greenhouse gas emissions leads to average global warming of 1.6 degrees Celsius (3 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050. Warmer temps dry out underbrush, leading to more serious conflagrations future climate.

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Minimizing the Effects of Climate Change

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Focus on reduction of greenhouse gasses - Most scientists believe that we have a decade to reduce gas emissions to avoid catastrophe. Gas Reduction must be done on individual, community, national, and international level. • Carbon sequestration - Necessary as we make transition to new energies

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Carbon Sequestration

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Capture and store carbon dioxide before it enters atmosphere • Biological sequestration - Planting more trees • Oceanic sequestration - Injecting CO 2 into oceans • Geologic sequestration - Power plants capture CO2 - Inject it, under pressure into wells in the earth

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Fossil Fuels-Future Threat Climate Change

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Two scenarios for global warming in which there's rapid economic growth w/population peaking and declining • A1-More efficient energy technologies, but still fossil fuel intensive • B1 -Clean resource-efficient technologies, economic structures change

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what can we do?

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Produce more fuel-efficient vehicles Reduce vehicle use Improve energy-efficiency in building Develop carbon capture-storage processes Triple nuclear power Increase solar power Decrease deforestation/plant forests Improve soil carbon management

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