The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict Essay Example

after conducting an analysis, groups will perceive others as a source of danger. The advantage of offensive tactics over defensive ones is influenced by technology and geography. The military capabilities of states are impacted by the variation in technology during competition. Geography can be either an advantage or disadvantage to different states for specific reasons depending on the situation.

The significance of geography magnifies during the collapse of an empire. Certain groups may possess superior offensive capacity due to their encirclement of other groups, whereas others may become isolated from their population. This creates a "window of vulnerability" for new groups to launch immediate military plans against neighboring groups. In the absence of central authority, emerging groups must assess their power relative to each other and estimate their future capabilities in order to discover opportunities. This is described further in "Windows of Vulnerability and Opportunity."

Small groups of fanatics can easily start conflicts due to the vulnerability of civilians, making it difficult for even a weakening central power to control rebel military groups. Despite attempts by political leadership to disavow responsibility, these groups can take advantage of windows of vulnerability when central authority collapses and neighboring divided groups assess their relative power. In such situations, any weakness in neighboring groups will prompt an offensive military response sooner rather than later.

Following the downfall of an empire, certain new states may face an immediate disadvantage due to their previous position of power under the former regime. Additionally, when making strategic calculations for warfare, groups should consider the possibility of outside intervention from opposing group allies. It is important to take into account whether the adversary

has strong and militarily superior allies that may interfere, as well as whether another group's allies are currently occupied with other issues.

The behavior of international organizations such as the UN has contributed to the occurrence of offensive military actions by certain groups. This is due to their inability to accurately predict and anticipate conflicts, leading to vulnerable timeframes for these groups. If immediate aid is not supplied by their allies, they will act quickly in an offensive manner. The ongoing conflict between Croatia and Serbia can be seen through the perspective of the security dilemma, where both sides view the other's re-emerging identities as offensive threats. This has resulted in violent actions during wartime.

The history between Croatia and Seers is rooted in militarism, and both suffered heavy casualties during World War I. Conflict had previously arisen over the creation of Yugoslavia after World War II. Seers were vulnerable as they were "marooned" in Croatian and Muslim territory, similar to isolated islands mentioned by Poses. Only Serbia's offensive action could help their stranded brethren. Moreover, incentives for preventive war were high as the newly-formed republics had varying degrees of economic and population assets, access to wealth, military means, and external allies. Nationalism tensions were furthered by small bands of fanatics who stirred military conflict in Russia and Ukraine. The potential for conflict was not as great as that for Yugoslavia, as stated by the security dilemma.

The absence of a significant military threat between Russians and Ukrainians is attributed to the presence of Soviet nuclear forces in both countries, which serve as a deterrent. Both sides are hesitant to launch an offensive campaign due to

this factor. Additionally, there is little evidence of a large-scale military rivalry between the two nations in the past. Nationalistic sentiments have not posed a significant threat either, with Russia being cautious not to portray Ukraine as subordinate. Some Ukrainian nationalists argue that Russia and the Soviet Union have hindered the development of an independent Ukrainian identity. Overall, neither side has posed a serious offensive threat to the other.

The population of Russians in Ukraine is approximately 21%. They are not located on vulnerable, isolated islands. Russia is economically, populously, and militarily superior to Ukraine. Therefore, rescuing the Russians in Ukraine would likely be a successful task. External factors play a minimal role in the conflict compared to the Yugoslavia conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine are closer to Western Europe. Consequently, the conflict between the two would likely heavily impact Western diplomacy. Neither side desires to be branded as the aggressor because doing so would favor the other side. Carats and Seers view each other's identity as a threat due to military capabilities and an unsavory military history between them. The nuclear presence in Ukraine and Russia has reduced their conventional competition.