Statistics to Describe Australia’s Current Business Cycle Position

Flashcard maker : Lily Taylor
What phase of the business cycle is the Australian economy in at the moment?
Trough/Start of Upswing
Evidence for Start of an upswing
Increasing GDP, Steady Unemployment, stable confidence, steady interest rates
How is Australia’s past GDP data reflect the start of an upswing?
Australia’s annual GDP growth rate has start to increase after periods of declining economic growth between December 2013- June 2015, from 2.7% to 2.2% economic growth.

Australia’s current GDP – 2.3% Increasing slightly (September 2015)

How is Australia’s past unemployment data reflect the start of an upswing?
Australia’s unemployment is currently steady after a decline from the January 2015 unemployment rate of 6.3%.

The current unemployment rate – 5.8% (Steady)

How is inflation data an indicator of a start of an upswing?
The CPI in Australia has been increasing since March 2015 – pressure on prices might be as a result of increases in economic activity.

Current inflation rate – 1.7% (Increasing)

How is confidence an indicator of an upswing?
NAB Business confidence survey – slightly decreased to 3 in the December Q4. Businesses had high expectations for the future with expectations at 24, higher than the confidence figures of around 20 in late 2007 before the GFC.
How is interest rates an indicator of the start an upswing?
Interest rates remained steady suggesting that economic conditions are steady and are not deteriorating. A decline in the interest rates would have suggested that the economy is still contracting or still in a trough. Current interest rates – 2% (steady)

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