EPIDEMIOLOGY T4 – Flashcards

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Frequency measures are used to
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describe nominal (categorized/labeled) data
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many epidemiological nominal variables have ? categories
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two; alive/dead, case/control, exposed/not exposed dichotomous variables
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used with dichotomous variables are
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ratios, proportions, rates
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frequency measures are based on single formula
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(x/y)(10^n)
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what are being compared in frequency measures
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x and y quantities
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n'th power of 10 examples
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10^0=1 10^1=10 10^2=100 10^3=1000
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ratio
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x and y may be independent from each other OR x may be included in y independent: females/males xy inclusive: females/total population
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proportion
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is a ratio where x is included in y
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EMS Eosinophilia Myalgia Syndrome
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increase in eosinophils with severe muscle pain (chest/abdomen)
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eosinophils
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type of WBC that attacks worms/toxins
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EMS has been associated with
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ingestions of contaminated L-tryptophan -amino acid isomer (health food sleep aid) -1988 Jap Co created genetically modified bacteria to make L tryptophan but strain also caused unidentified impurity -37 died, 1500 disabled
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Rate
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is a ratio, that measures the frequency/occurrence of an event over time
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rate formula
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(number of cases or events in a given time/population at risk in a given time)(10^n)
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rate formula requires (3)
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-cases must be from population in denominator (can be thought of as proportion) -numerator and denominator must occur in same time period -denominator pop must be at risk, must have at least the possibility of experiencing the event
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ratios, proportions, and rates are used to describe 3 epidemiological events
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-morbidity -mortality -natality
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Morbidity Frequency Measures
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used to describe the presence/probability (risk) of disease in a populaiton
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disease
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illness, injury, or disability
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Incidence rates
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**most common way to measure frequency of disease in a population -measures risk and is used to compare risks between different poulation
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what are rates better than for comparing disease occurrence and why
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better than raw numbers; because rates adjust data for population size
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Incidence rate formula
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(new cases in a given time/population at risk in a given time)(10^n)
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incidence rate example
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(50/100) high risk relative to (10/1000)
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incidence rate numerator
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-numerator only includes new cases in a given time
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incidence rate denominator
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-population at risk should have possibility of developing disease (susceptible); difficult to eliminate non-susceptible in a large population, US census figures normally used; only in small population can non-susceptible be eliminated i.e. nursing homes, school, hospital -denominator pop must originate the numerator cases pop usually defined Geo-politically (state, county, city); pop may be defined by common experience (radiation exposure, eating at restaurant) -appropriate denominator is 1 out of 3 possibilities: pop size at start/time period, pop size at middle/time period, average size of pop over time period
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incidence rate 10^n
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for nationally notifiable diseases (gonorrhea, HIV, plague) 10^n=10^5=100000 otherwise select 10^n where smallest rate calculated has a small whole number (use 4.2/100 not 0.42/10, 10^2 not 10^1) in all tables 10^n must be identified to inform reader
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incidence rate implies
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change over time in health healthy-> disease state (new cases)
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incidence rate period of time
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must be specified (calendar year most common)
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Prevalence rate formula
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(new+preexisting cases in a given time/pop at risk in same given time) (10^n)
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Prevalence rate
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diff than incidence rate, includes all cases in numerator; may be point prevalence
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point prevalence
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amount of disease in an interval of time (week/mo/year)
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Prevalence VS Incidence
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prevalence includes ALL CASES (new+preexisiting in a give time) incidence includes (only new cases in a give time)
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chronic disease with unclear onset date is better described by (prevalence or incidence?)
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PREVALENCE! i.e. osteoarthritis, diabetes
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Factors increasing prevalence
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more duration of disease, prolonging life of disease, more incidence, immigration of cases, emigration of healthy, immigration of susceptible, better reporting of cases
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factors decreasing prevalence
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less duration, high fatality rate, less incidence (new cases), emigration of healthy, improved cure rate
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Attack rate
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type of incidence rate, applied to narrowly defined population for a limited time (epidemic) measures risk or probability of becoming a case if you are a contact of a primary case
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attack rate (primary) formula
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(new cases in a given time/population at risk at beginning of time period)(100)
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attack rate expressed as a
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percent; 10^n is 10^2
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secondary attack rate formula
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(new cases among contacts of primary cases in a given time/total number of cases)(100)
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secondary attack rate measures
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risk/probability of becoming a case if you are a contact of a primary case expressed as a percent
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person-time rate
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type of incidence rate; used for cohort (follow-up) studies of disease with long incubation or latency periods ie AIDS cancer heart disease
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person-time rate formula
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(new cases in given time of observation/total observation time for all persons)(10^n)
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person-time rate VS attack rate
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person-time rate takes into account persons lost to follow up, attack rate ignores attack rate better at finding the proportion of a population becoming ill in a short time period person-time rate=better to see how quickly people develop illness over extended time
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risk ratio (relative risk) formula
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(risk for group of primary interest/risk for comparison group) aka exposed over not
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risk ratio (relative risk)
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compares the health risk of a disease between two known well defined groups (cohorts)
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Risk ratio (relative risk) characteristics
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-usually primary interest group is the exposed group and the comparison group is not exposed group -for diseases, incidence rate/attack rate are used as measure of risk for both groups-population at risk is known for these measures
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interpretation of risk ratio values
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if =1 both groups have identical risk if = >1 increased risk for primary group of interest the exposure may be causing the illness if = < 1 decreased risk for primary group of interest the exposure may have protective effect
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PELLAGRA
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deficiency of niacin (b vitamin, precursor of NAD coenzyme, helps enzyme function) in diet leads to 3D syndrome (dermatitis, diarrhea, dementia)
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2x2 table showing attack rates (risk) of pellagra in males and females in 1920's
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females have greater risk than females; because not economically developed; exposed mill workers-risk was 0.2 very low; 1/5 of non mill workers (non exposed) numerator group appeared protected from risk compared to denominator group flour provides be vitamin
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measure of association
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quantified relationship between exposure and disease for cohort studies; cohort studies may be historical
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high risk ratio
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more likely exposure is causal for disease in question
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risk ratio of stroke for women (smoke vs not)
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smoke 49.6/don't 17.7 = 2.8:1
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risk ratio greater than 2 considered strong association between cause/effect
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increased risk ratio more likely cause effect
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rate ratio
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used to compare rates of 2 groups; disease rate, death rate, person-time rate
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rate ratio formula
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=(rate per primary interest group/rate per comparison group) =(exposed/non-exposed)
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rate ratio interpretation
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similar to risk ratio (higher, more likely exposure is causal for disease in question)
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in case control studies, we pick an arbitrary number of individuals for control group because
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we don't know the true size of population at risk
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can't calculate incidence rate or attack rate so can't calculate relative risk
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can't do this without knowing size of population at risk.
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odds ratio
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estimates relative risk by comparing exposure among cases to exposure among controls; is the measure of association used for case-control studies to quantify the relationship of exposure and disease
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odds ratio is an indirect measure of
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risk
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odds ratio formula
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(cases/exposure)(controls of not exposed)/(controls with exposure)*(cases of not exposed)
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odds ratio compares
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odds (probability) of exposure, cases to controls
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odds ratio: a/c , b/d aka cross product ratio
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a/c: odds of exposure among the cases b/d: odds of exposure among the controls odds ratio=(a/c) / (b/d) = (ad)/ (bc)
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interpretation of odds ratio
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-if 1.0 odds of exposure are greater for cases (exposure is more likely associated with disease) indicates how likely exposure gave the disease agent to cases
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odds ratio can be applied to historical cohort studies to approximate risk but is not a direct measure of risk as is the risk ratio
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1920s south Carolina pellagra study cases 2.5x more likely to be associated with exposure of being female than male by odds ratio but actual risk of illness by pellagra is 2.4x for females over males (risk ratio)
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TWO MEASURES OF PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT
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reflects burden on public that an exposed contributes to frequency of disease -attributable proportion -vaccine efficacy or effectiveness
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attributable proportion (attributable risk %)
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the proportion of disease in an exposed group that is attributable to the exposure OR measusre the reduction of a disease if the exposure is reduced from the population
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attributable proportion formula
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=(risk for exposed group - risk for unexposed group) / (risk for exposed group) all *100
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vaccine efficacy or effectiveness
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proportionate reduction of disease in vaccinated group identified the amount of disease (%) reduced among those vaccinated
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vaccine efficacy or effectiveness formula
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=(risk unvaccinated - risk vaccinated)/(risk unvaccined) *100
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mortality frequency measures
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measures the frequency of death
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mortality rate (generic formula)
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(deaths/given time)/(pop size/same time from which the deaths occurred) (10^n) *if based on vital statistics (death certificate) denominator=population at the middle of time period most 10n 10^3 or 10^5
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crude mortality rate
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numerator deaths= due to all causes
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age-specific mortality rate
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numerator deaths and denominator pop size form specific age group
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cause-specific mortality rate
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numerator deaths due to specific cause
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sex-specific mortality rate
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numerator deaths and denominator population size are limited to one sex M/F
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race-specific mortality rate
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numerator deaths and denominator population size are limited to specific race
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infant mortality rate formula
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deaths (<1yr old/given time)/(live births/same given time) * (10^3) deaths/1000 live births
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infant mortality rate
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indicator of pop health, sensitive to socioeconomic and health care conditions greater IMR in less developed countries
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IMR not exactly same as age specific death rate for infants because
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some infants may die in nation without being born there
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neonatal mortality rate formula
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deaths (<28 days old/given time)/(live births/same given time) (10^3)
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post neonatal mortality rate formula
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(deaths 28-364 DO/given time)/(live births/same given time)(10^3)
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maternal mortality rate formula
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(deaths (pregnancy related)/given time)/(live births/given time) *10^5
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maternal mortality rate
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expressed as deaths per 100000 live births; much less maternal death than infant death; numerator includes death while pregnant/within 42 days of pregnancy termination, but not accident-related death
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death to case ratio formula
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(deaths due to a disease/given time)(new cases of disease in same time)(10n)
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death to case ratio
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use when deaths in numerator are not necessarily restricted to new cases in denominator some deaths in numerator may be due to development of disease in a time period prior to the time period of new cases
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death to case ratio example
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diphtheria caused by corynebacterium diphtheriae bacteria that infect the throat, cause a pseudo membrane (tough, fiber-like covering) which can block airways, may spread via bloodstream to heart; 10% fatality; vax good for 10 yrs; death to case ratio 7.83/100 some could be due to development disease so ratio not proportion
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case fatality rate
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proportion (x included in y) of those with a disease that die from that disease deaths in numerator are restricted to cases in denominator
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case-fatality rate formula
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(deaths among cases/given time)(cases of the disease/same time)(10n)
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case fatality rate measures
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severity/virulence of disease; greater CFR, more virulent disease
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case fatality rate example
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zaire virus (zaire ebola virus) causes hemorrhagic fever with case-fatality rate of up to 90% with an average case fatality rate of about 83% CDC reports Hep A virus in US has overall case-fatality rate of about 0.3% with 1.8 among >50 YO
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proportionate mortality rate formula
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(deaths due to disease/given time)/(deaths due to all causes/same time)(100)
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proportionate mortality rate
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expressed as %; proportion of deaths due to specific cause heart disease PMR-35%, now 28% but still #1 cause of death
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PRIMARY CAUSES OF DEATH 1987 (6)
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heart disease, cancer, cerebrovascular disease, accidents, chronic pulmonary disease, pneumonia+influenza
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PRIMARY CAUSES OF DEATH 2003 (6)
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heart disease, cancer, stroke, chronic lower respiratory, accidents, diabetes
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diabetes
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fasting blood glucose of >126 mg/dL not enough insulin to signal cells to take up glucose or cell ignores insulin signal, high sugar hurts eyes, kidneys, nerves, heart assoc with obesity, lack of exercise, genetics type 1-juvenile, failure to produce insulin type 2- failure to produce/use insulin, most common type
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proportionate mortality ratio formula
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(proportionate mortality/group of interest)/(proportionate mortality/entire population)
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proportionate mortality ratio
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compare PM of group to PM of entire pop PMR greater than 1=cause of group mortality accounts for a greater proportion of deaths in population than expected
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PMRatio ex
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rosenman Sanbury lung cancer in former workers with chromium compounds PCMR 1.51 white men 1.34 black men; lack of increase in other smoking related diseases suggest that lung cancer not related to smoking
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YEARS of potential life lost
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measures premature mortality in relation to a predetermined endpoint usually 65.70.75 or average life expectancy any death prior to endpoint is considered premature; this mortality measure is weighted towards deaths at younger ages [death of 10 YO counts more than that of 50]
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YPLL determined two ways
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YPLL from line listing data YPLL from frequency distribution data
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YPLL from line listing data
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calculate each individual YPLL then sum for group =[sum(predetermined endpoint age - age of death before endpoint)] endpoint 65 death 45 YPLL 20
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YPLL from frequency distribution data
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uses age group data -calculate midpoint for each age group [(age group youngest+oldest age+1)/(2)] ---(endpoint-midpoint of age group)*(deaths in age group)=age group YPLL
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YPLL RATE formula
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(YPLL/pop under endpoint age)(10n)
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YPLL rate
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used to compare YPLL between different populations
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age adjusted mortality rate
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mortality rate increases with age, if mortality rates for 2+ pop are studied must assure mortality difference isn't due only to age diff in diff pop pop/more elderly has higher mortality rate to eliminate age diff adjust mortality rates of diff pop to a standard pop
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direct method age adjusted death rate
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requires knowledge of age specific death rate
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direct method age adjusted death rate procedure:
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age-specific death rate/100000* age group std pop=expected deaths for age group sum of all expected deaths for all age groups=total expected deaths total expected deaths *10^5/total standard population=age adjusted death rate for population
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iNDIRECT METHOD FOR AGE ADJUSTED DEATH RATE
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USE IF LACK OF KNOWLEDGE OF AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE; SMALL POP CAN BE COMPARED TO LARGER GROUP
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standardized mortality rate formula
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this is an indirect method of age-adjusted death rate (observed deaths/expected deaths)(100)
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heart disease death rate of city is 2x that of nation (40/20)
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heart disease death rate of city is 2x that of nation (40/20)
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public health surveillance gain knowledge by (4) and involves (3)
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-data collection, data analysis, interp, dissemination of info involves public, HC provider, health agencies
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goal of public health surveillance attained by?
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improved public health via public action attained by identifying public health problems, set priorities, plan health programs, implement health programs, evaluate health programs
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10 essential public health services
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monitor health status to ID probs diagnose and investigate health probs inform public on health issues develop policies supporting public health enforce public health laws and regulations link people to needed health services assure a competent public health workforce evaluate effectiveness accessibility and quality of public health services reserach innovative solutions to health problems
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public health surveillance monitors population health to
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detect sudden changes in disease occurrence follow secular long term trends in disease id changes in disease agents/hosts detect changes in health practices detect potential terrorist activities
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public health surveillance requires source of data
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mortality data sources: vital stats:birth, death, marriage, divorce data records state and local 122 cities in us report death by age and cause to CDC ~1/3 of US deaths, CDC publishes weekly summary in MMWR CDC natnl center for health stats-national sampling of death certif. that goes into natnl mortality followback survey, looks for risk factors and causes of death medical examiners and coroners-med ex appointed physician or pathologist traine din death invest, coroner elected layperson using medical personell to investigate; investigate sudden, suscpicious, violent, unattended,unexplained death and rpt to county/state principal tool-autopsy--research conclusion on cause/manner of death
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notifiable disease reports
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each state decide what health event reportable by health care provider states range widely in what is required NATTIONAL ELECTONIC TELECOMM SYS for SURV is a computerized sys by CDC with weekly data regarding cases of natiaonally notif diseases
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lab data
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diseae may require lab confirm to diagnose
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hospital data
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hosp keep computerized discharge records for financial reasons NCHS performs natnl random sapling and complies an anual natnal hosp discharge report monitoring ER visist to detect disease outbreaks early0may provide first evidence terroism
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outpatient data
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NCHS randmoly samples shopital emergency and outrbeak info and cmpiles it into natnl hostpital ambulaotry medical care survey
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cancer regittries
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45 stats collect data on paitient, type, site, treatment
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adverse drug rxn
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FDA tracks probs of marketed drugs via physican/pharmacist
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injury surveillence
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NHTSA natnl highway traffic safty admin tracks fatal crahses on public roads
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occupational illness
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info from federal OSHA occupat safely and health admin or state agency equiv
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types of surveys to collct public health data
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general pop health surveys -NCHS periodic random sampl US pop health Ntnl health and nutriiton exam survey -behav risk factor surv system (smoking, etc) cross sectional telephone survey
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diseae indicator surveys
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animal population survye evn survye drug utiliz survey sutdnet emplyee
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animal pop suvey
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morb/mortal in animal pop due to zoonoess; presence of diseae agents wild/domestic animals; presence of diseae agent in vector; cahgne in size/dist of potential reservoi vector pop
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env survay
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health dept sample food milk water for diseae agents; health dept loate potential breeding site vector; occupat health dept chack job related ehatlh
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drug util survgey
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state health CDC onlyu source for inrequent drugs; pentamidine-anti penumocysits drug the request upsurge 1981 IADS
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student survey
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school absence flu
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employee
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worker comp claims help asses occu injuryu
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