The term was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in the title of his book Éléments de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée.
Population growth or decline
Search for cheap labor
E.g., Violence in sub-Saharan Africa that’s aggravated by high birth rates and issues arising from HIV/AIDS
Can we pull everyone out of poverty?
Social movements are related to 1960s : civil rights movement
Unemployed youth: Occupy Wall St
“Youth bulge” and the Arab Spring?
Targeting – aiming the advertising of a product or service to a specific demographic group
Cluster marketing – relating demographic information about people to information about where they live.
Eventually people began to use the environment intensively, leading to the agricultural way of life which has characterized society for the past 10,000 years.
Thus, since the world’s rate of growth in the year 2011 is estimated to be 1.2% per year, the doubling time is 58 years.
More than half of children born died before age 5.
The average woman who survived to the reproductive years would have to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood.
People were eating better, bathing more often and drinking cleaner water.
Continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a commensurate decline in fertility (even though fertility IS declining).
Africa to Latin America, Caribbean and North America
Latin America and Asia to the United States
Asia to Canada
Africa and Asia to Europe
In earlier decades, as population grew dense in a region, people moved to a less populated area, now they move to urban areas.
As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the world’s population lived in cities of 100,000 or more.
More than 1/3 of all humans now live in cities of that size, and more than half live in urban places of any size.
Urban populations grew in some countries even without industrialization, as places sprang up where goods and services were exchanged.
What are the consequences of population growth or change?
What is the relationship between socioeconomic “development” and demographic changes?
Does demography drive socioeconomic development or is it the other way round?
make reference to notions of absolute truth
may suggest to have been divinely inspired by a “higher power”
not tested empirically (in fact, may be untestable)
may aspire to make claims of having universal and timeless answers
develops tentative explanations (theories and hypotheses) that sort out evidence to highlight patterns (of social behavior, social action, social structure/institutions etc.)
pays attention to context
Some were just justifying their social position (class interest)- again albeit unbeknownst to some
A belief that land is the major generator of wealth (not labor or industry) 1700 – 1800
Foster free trade/laissez faire to increase returns to land productivity. Francois Quesnay (the Physiocrats)
Need to replace war casualties 50 BC
Transform the social structure
14 C AD
Population growth is good for economic growth
Number of children should be limited by law
People will rationally limit population growth if the need arises
Decomposition of the Demographic Transition into its Separate Transitions
Belief in rights of individuals vs the monarchy
The era that ushered in the French and then the American
The Enlightenment was extremely important in changing the way people thought about the world
and Malthus was a product of the Enlightenment though he didn’t completely agree with some of it, especially he viewed enlightenment ideas as too optimistic and somewhat utopian
E.g the idea of limitless human capacity, perfection of man etc
believed that technological progress has no limits
at the interest of their own welfare (and that of their families and societies) people will limit their fertility if needed
the problems of the poor are a product of inequities of social institutions
The major consequence of population growth, according to Malthus, is poverty.
Within that poverty is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery.
Food production grows in this manner per Malthus
Partly because of limited land resources
Population grows in this manner, e.g., if one woman produces two children each of whom produces 2 children each as well, then the second generation has 4 more people …
Delay marriage, and be chaste in the meanwhile
Conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth. What do you think?
Belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check. Enough said…
Heavily debunked by fertility declines observed everywhere in world in the last few decades
Note: Erlich is a biologist
For capitalism, the consequences are overpopulation and poverty.
For socialism, population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects.
Ergo: Population problems would be non-existent in socialism
Demographic trends in Soviet Russia didn’t not “absorb” population problems as suggested by Marx
In fact, Soviet Russia, jut like in capitalist industrialized countries, the working class experienced disproportionately high death rates relative to the rest of the population
China, another society inspired by Marx-Leninist ideas, rejected the notion that the socialist system would take care of population problems
The ideal state is that in which all members of a society are economically comfortable, rather than seeking excessive wealth. At this point the population will stabilize and people will progress culturally, morally, and socially.
The desire of people to rise on the social scale, to increase their individuality as well as their personal wealth.
To ascend the social hierarchy requires to sacrifices be made, one of them being avoiding child bearing
Population growth leads to greater societal specialization, because the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people.
Leads first to a decline in mortality and then to a commensurate decline in fertility.
Based on the experience of the developed nations and derived from the modernization theory.
Individuals did not deliberately lower their risk of death to precipitate the modern decline in mortality.
Society wide increases in income and improved public health infrastructure brought about this change.
Controversially, modernization theory explanations would suggest that all countries will eventually follow the demographic path experienced by Western European nations
Assumes all societies follows a linear path from a “traditional” to a “modern” society
Attempted to universalize regional/culture-specific historical experience of early western Europe.
The tradition/modernity dichotomy is false (both analytically and historically or chronologically)
History matters. The mere occurrence of an event (or a sequence of events) may limit its re- occurrence (by the virtue of the mere fact of the knowledge of it having happened before)
History rarely repeats itself exacty
The Princeton Project showed that in fact distinct society with a shared cultural trait (e.g., a lingustic one) were more likely to follow a similar transition in spite of whether they had different economic levels
Emergence of new reproductive and family norms
The choice that minimize cost and maximize benefit is the one adopted
This is referred to as “rationality.”
They act on the basis of the information that they have about the conditions under which they are acting
It is not possible for individuals to achieve all of the various things that they want
Rational choice theories hold that individuals must anticipate the outcomes of alternative courses of action and calculate that which will be best for them
Rational individuals choose the alternative that is likely to give them the greatest satisfaction (utility)
Human preferences, interests, and objectives are used as the basic explanatory and predictive variables of human behavior
Rigorous “scientific” techniques borrowed from the natural sciences, ranging from statistical techniques to mathematical modeling, are employed to provide scientific explanation
RCT assume near perfect certainty in outcomes (cost, benefit). If uncertainty is involved, then more assumptions have to be made in addition to rational preferences.
Sometimes herd mentality prevails
To simplify calculation and make prediction, some rather unrealistic assumptions are made about the world. These can include:
Wealth flow is from children to parents and thus “demand” for children is high.
Modernization of production ( capital-intensive) simultaneously decreases the demand for children (labor) and in fact also increases the cost of them (e.g., the need to educate them) leading to lower fertility
Parents work harder, put children to work;
Not enough local jobs to go around as children grow up, so they migrate elsewhere;
When they get to urban areas, in particular, they are forced to think about family size and wind up limiting the number of children: change their preferences
They may even adopt new norms: about gender, sexuality, and authority
If you can improve your income as an adult compared to your childhood level, you are more likely to marry early and have several children.
Conversely, a cohort squeeze (a large relative,e.g., cohort resulting from increasing survival) will result in delayed marriage and smaller family sizes.
Response is often for personal goals (national policies have only a small effect)
1st generation: the response to generation pressure is non-demographic
E.g. work harder, longer; migrate unwed children etc.
2nd generation: more difficult to put more pressure on dwindling resources
To maintain social status similar to or higher than their parents’ (which is the typical aspiration), children reduce family size
Here Davis echoes Dumont and Mill and contradicts Malthus since the motivation here is the prospect of rising social status as opposed to fear of poverty .
Fertility Transition – The shift from natural (and high) to controlled (and low) fertility.
Age Transition – The changing numbers and percentages of people at each age and sex as mortality and fertility decline, and as migrants flow in and out. The “master transition” because it forces change in societies.
Migration Transition – Growth in the number of young people in rural areas will lead to an oversupply of young people looking for jobs, which encourages people to leave in search of economic opportunity
Urban Transition – Begins with migration from rural to urban areas and morphs into urban “evolution” as most humans are born in, live in, and die in cities.
Family and Household Transition – Diversity in family and household composition and structure brought about by changes that accompany longer life, lower fertility, an older age structure, and urban instead of rural residence.
Postponement of marriage
Rise in single living
Cohabitation in lieu of marriage
Prolonged stay into parental (childhood) household
The south has higher birth rates, higher death rates, and younger populations than the north.
These differences, and the variability within the south in these differences, will drive the future.
In the U.S. these data are collected by the National Center for Health Statistics, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control.
Social Security data
School Enrollment data
Moving Companies data
Utility Hook-ups and Disconnects
They are collected by many different people using different methods and may be prone to numerous kinds of error
However, they provide less extensive geographic coverage than a census or system of vital registration.
Survey on Income and Program Participation
American Housing Survey
National Survey of Family Growth
National Health Interview Survey
Gravesites (including excavations of ancient burial sites)
Old censuses, vital statistics, and administrative records
Geo-referencing data to places on the map means different types of data can be combined for the same place, and for more than one time.
Increases the ability to visualize and analyze demographic changes over time and space.
First US Census in 1790
They have a tendency to be contentious when different groups use their numbers for political purposes.
But, they are also the richest available source of demographic information.
[No reference to citizenship, legal status, race, ethnicity, age, sex or anything else.]
14th Amend, Sec 1 (1868): “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” [Why was this important?]
Who can vote:
Citizens aged 18+ (since 1971)
Regardless of race (15th Amend 1870 + Voting Rights Act of 1965)
Regardless of sex since 1920 (19th Amend)
All American Indians since 1924 (Indian Citizenship
De Jure Population
People Included in the Census on the Basis of Usual Residence
Coverage Error [Very contentious]
Includes non-responses to particular questions on the census or inaccurate responses if people do not understand the question.
Beginning about 200 years ago, however, we have been steadily pushing death to older ages.
The survival of more people to ever older ages is a key contribution to the demographic transition.
High infant and child mortality
People who reached adulthood were not too likely to reach a very advanced age.
It is estimated 1/3 of the population of Europe may have perished from the disease between 1346 and 1350.
It appears to be the same disease that still exists in the world today—we don’t really know why it was so fatal back then.
Their immunity to the diseases they brought, compared with the devastation the diseases wrought on indigenous populations, is one explanation for the relative ease with which Spain dominated Latin America after arriving there around 1500.
There were as many deaths to children under 5 as there were at 65 and over.
Infectious diseases were still the dominant reasons for death, but their ability to kill was diminishing.
Sewerage in cities
Small pox vaccinations
Validation of germ theory
Labor rights, the Welfare State
Oral rehydration therapy for infants
Advanced diagnoses, drugs and other treatments for degenerative diseases to keep older people alive longer
Across 21 regions of the world, rates of neonatal, postneonatal, and childhood mortality are declining.
Nutrition transition is a worldwide shift toward a diet high in fat and processed foods and low in fiber, accompanied by less exercise, leading to increases in degenerative diseases. Two of the theories of the rise of obesity
Increased consumption of food (of saturated fats and processed sugars, for example)
Lack of physical activity: “cave man appetite, modern man physical activity”
Life span is almost entirely a biological phenomenon. [Choose your parents carefully!]
After the initial year of life, there is a period of time, usually lasting at least until middle age (essentially the reproductive ages), when risks of death are relatively low.
Beyond middle age, mortality increases, although at a decelerating rate.
ORT was developed in labs and tested in the field, especially in Bangladesh.
It is new enough that one of its founders, Dr. Richard Cash, still holds a teaching position at Harvard School of Public Health.
…unless society intervenes with a lower status for women (gender) that gives them less food, less access to health care, etc.
About 60 -100 million women “missing” in India
National decline from 945 to 927 in the number of girls per 1,000 boys aged 0-6 between 1991 and 2001 on India
Source: UNFPA, Missing: Mapping the Adverse Child Sex Ratio in India, – See more at: http://india.unfpa.org/?publications=235
The phenomenon has led to skewed sex ratio in China
bacterial [e.g. tuberculosis]
viral [e.g. measles]
protozoan [e.g. malaria)
Lack of prenatal care
Delivering somewhere besides a hospital
Seeking an unsafe abortion
perinatal (“surrounding birth”—just before and just after birth) conditions
Diet and Activity Patterns
CDR=(d / p) x 1,000
Known as a crude measure because:
Does not take into account differentials in sex and age.
ASDR is measured as follows:
ASDR or nMx =( ndx / npx ) x 100,000
Where ndx is number of deaths in year for people aged n to n+x (typically 5 year intervals), npx is the population
Based on survival probabilities at different age intervals (based on ASDR)
Definition: Life expectancy of a person aged x, ex, means the number of years a person aged x is expected to live assuming that mortality experience (causes of death at every age) remain constant throughout her/his life.
Life expectancy is specific to a given age
The most used one is the life expectancy at birth, e0.
Source: World Health Organization (WHO)
Urban now better than rural.
“Bad” neighborhoods are bad for your health
The better educated live longer.
Social Status Differentials
The rich live longer.
Race and Ethnicity Differentials
Being different will be used against you.
Being married is good for your health.
In the U.S., African-Americans and Native Americans have historically experienced higher-than-average death rates
“Historically given (and often economically driven) processes and forces which conspire to constrain individual agency” of certain social categories (Paul Farmer, 2001, Infections and Inequalities : The Modern Plagues p 82)
Think of harms that are a result of social injustices, for instance
Results from low symbolic capital (e.g., being a member of a “stigmatized” identity) leading to a higher risk of “symbolic violence”
So for example
Involves a delay in childbearing and an earlier end to childbearing.
Frees women and men from unwanted parenthood and allows them to space their children.
First pregnancy at age 15
Little less than 9 months per pregnancy (to account for some pregnancy loss)
18 months between the end of one pregnancy and the start of the next
Thus, a woman could have a child every 2.2 years between ages 15 and 49
Which equals 16 live births.
And could lead to more than 16 children if some of the births are multiple (i.e., twins, triplets…)
Early age at marriage, good diet, good medical care, regularly engaged in intercourse without contraception or abortion.
Motivating women/couples to have children:
Children as security and labor
Lower status for women leads to a desire for sons
Children as essential for status and prestige
Having children early and often (requires control over women)
No tolerance for contraception/abortion/infanticide
Perception of advantages from reduced fertility (motivation for limiting fertility).
Knowledge and mastery of effective techniques of birth control (controlling reproduction).
When the supply begins to exceed the demand, then the motivation to limit fertility emerges.
Mortality declines and children cannot be afforded.
And/or the opportunity costs of children rise
Opportunity cost: the opportunity (benefit) forgone by making a particular choice
Cultural innovation takes place in higher social strata as a result of privilege, education, and resources; lower social strata adopt new preferences through imitation.
Rigid social stratification or closure of class or caste inhibits downward cultural mobility.
Infanticide, or general neglect (abandonment) or inattention that leads to early death.
Fosterage of child by another family that needs or can afford it.
Orphanage – involves abandoning a child so she or he is likely to be found and cared for by strangers.
A. Determinants of formation and dissolution of unions
1. Age of entry into sexual unions
B. Determinants of exposure to intercourse within unions
III: Factors affecting exposure to conception – “conception variables”
7. Fecundity or infecundity from involuntary causes including breastfeeding (postpartum amenorrhea)
8. Use or non use of contraception
III. Factors affecting gestation and successful parturition – “gestation variables”
11. Voluntary fetal mortality (induced abortion)
Crude birth rate
General fertility rate
Age-specific fertility rate
Total fertility rate
Gross reproduction rate
Net reproduction rate
Cohort measure: Measures fertility of a group of people ( a cohort)
Cumulated Cohort Fertility Rate
Children ever born
Fertility intentions: measure people’s lifetime fertility intentions
Avoid drawbacks of period measures, which are influenced by timing and tempo of births .
often multiplied by 1,000 and expressed as per 1000 in the population
CBR is “crude”
Doesn’t take into account the “population at risk” of giving birth
Ignores age structure
The GFR is also often multiplied by 1,000 and expressed per 1,000 in the population
Takes into consideration the at-risk-population
Note: CWR age limit is higher than GFR’s because some of the children would have been born up to five years prior to the census
CWR is especially useful if comprehensive vital statistics are not available
If = Im X Ig
Where Im is the proportion of female population that is married, and Ig is the index of marital fertility
Index of marital fertility is the ratio of marital fertility (live births per 1000 married women) to the marital fertility of Hutterites in 1930s
highlights changes overtime in fertility due to proportion of women who are married (marriage rates) from changes over time due to shifts in reproduction within marriages.
TFR is the total number of children women are expected to have if they completed their reproductive circle
Uses a “synthetic cohort,” i.e., data available currently from ASFRs
TRF is computed from ASFR
With an assumption that women in the future would bear children at the same rates as predicted by ASFRs today
Note parallel with Age Specific Mortality Rates (ASMR) and Life expectancy
TFR is then just a summation of all ASFR multiplied by the length of age interval (n) specified by the ASFR
TFR = ∑ASFR x n
Women at parity , p
Parity = number of children that a woman has
Marital fertility rates
Limited to married women
NRR is always less than GRR (because some women die before completing their reproduction cycle)
NRR is a measure of generational replacement.
NRR=1 equals exact replacement fertility
NRR < 1 potential population decline Note: population growth can still happen if NRR<1. E.g., in the US in 2006 NRR was only barely greater than 1 even though population was increasing by more than 2.6 million people a year . How come?
2 children in their life time.
Though replacement fertility rate is adjusted to take into account the fact that not all women would complete their reproduction, therefore, it slightly greater than 2
in industrialized nations is estimated to be 2.1.
E.g., women born in 1915 had given birth to 890 babies per 1000 by 1940
People are asked:
About their ideal family size
Number of children they would like to have
Number of children they plan to have
Estimates number of children women would have after having had n children
Measured by proportion of women with a given number of children (parity) who progress to have another child
PPRi= number of women at parity i + 1 or more
number of women at parity i or more
Proportion of a cohort who had at least i live births who went on to have at least one more
As fertility declines (transition to low fertility) parity progression ratios decline at every parity
Coale’s preconditions need to kick in: Readiness, Willingness, and Ability to control fertility
Increase of the age at which women have their 1st child
Parity progression ratios
Since couples do make fertility decisions one child at a time
Sign of transition: if the likelihood of having another child decreases as parity increases
Usually characterized by delayed childbearing
Demographic distortion of period measures
tempo and compositional distortions lower TFR below the associated level of cohort fertility.
“increased returns to human capital and high economic uncertainty in early adulthood—have made late childbearing a rational response for individuals and couples.”
Social interaction effects
“reinforce behavioral adjustment and contribute to large and persistent postponement in the mean age at birth.”
The institutional setting in Southern, Eastern, and Central European countries (where most of the lowest-low fertility countries are located) “favor an overall low quantum of fertility.”
E.g. labor market conditions
Increased economic insecurity
amplifications of the consequences of the institutional setting factors when coupled with normative shifts in timing of child-bearing.
Think of these as
Through withdrawal (coitus interruptus)
After industrial revolution
Rising living standard in late 19th C
Instituted one-child policy 1978
Aimed to attain Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
Told people to delay marriage
Promote one child family through government incentives
Socioeconomic factors (in addition to one-child policy) explain Chinese fertility trends
Chinese TFR is above one
Function of class, income, education etc
Migrants have always brought in different fertility preferences, typically above natives
Sanger’s contraceptive revolutions in the 20th C
And baby busts, boomlets, and beyond
Remarkable differences in TFR among race/ethnic groups