The signaling model, utilized for deciding on dividend policy, lacks reliability due to information asymmetry from agency problems. The varied conclusions that arise when different research methods are employed further highlight this issue. Moreover, the signaling model is not appropriate for determining dividend policy in non-U.S. markets such as Japan. Although some possible explanations have been proposed, a precise model has yet to be established. Hence, currently the most valid and accurate explanation seems to be that dividend policy remains a perplexing matter.
- Introduction and Background Corporate dividend policy has puzzled economists and researchers for a long time.
Numerous empirical studies have been carried out to comprehend the dividend behavior of companies and shareholders' preference towards dividend payouts. Despite efforts to establish theories to understand dividend policy better, its
...relevance remains uncertain and the issue is yet to be resolved (Apothecary 2007, 4). Dividend policy is closely linked to decisions concerning company cash flows, forcing companies to decide between retaining cash for reinvestment or distributing it to shareholders as payouts.
- Payouts themselves can be done in two ways which are dividend payments or shares repurchase.
The study of the impact of taxes on dividends and capital gains led to the development of the Clientele Effects Theory. This theory was created to supplement the earlier research on Dividend Irrelevance Theory by Miller and Modigliani. The second part of the literature review will provide a comprehensive analysis of the Tax Clientele Effects and Dividend Irrelevance Theory.
According to Lintier (1956, 99), managers commonly think that hardliners would favor a steady increase in dividends to avoid negative reactions. Additionally, Chem.,
Dad, and Priestley (2012, 1834) presented another aspect of dividend policy related to the interdependence between dividend stability, current earnings, and past payouts, often referred to as dividend smoothing.
Despite attempts by economists to understand the motives behind dividend smoothing, including examining theories put forth by Patriarchy, Miller, and Rock, the results have been unsatisfactory (Lambert and Myers 2012, 1769). Lack of both theoretical and empirical information has led to new speculation about possible reasons for the phenomenon, put forth by economists who argue that dividend smoothing occurs due to information asymmetries, such as those highlighted by Kumar (1988) and Brenna and Thacker (1990), as well as agency costs, as cited in Leary and Michaels (2008, 2) by Allen, Bernard, and Welch.
According to a survey conducted by Lambert and Myers (2012, 1769), Allen, Leary, and Michaels suggested that agency cost was a more reasonable factor in explaining dividend policy. The statement was presented within a justified paragraph, surrounded by .
Frankfurter and Wood (2002) aimed to simplify existing theories for better study and comprehension.
Two theories on dividend policy will be presented and analyzed in separate sections. The first theory is based on clientele effects, whereas the second theory is based on signaling models. Each section will provide multiple perspectives and previous research will be examined.
In section two, the paper will discuss the impact of client preferences on dividend policy. This will be followed by an analysis of the signaling model in section three. In the final section, the literature review will be summarized, highlighting key points and significant findings.
Clientele effects
To facilitate understanding of the dividend clientele effects, this study
will utilize the US market as an example.
The companies' client base is determined by their dividend policy, which appeals to groups of investors based on their taxation preferences. Two main categories of investors are 'untaxed institutions' and 'taxed individuals' (Allen, Bernard, and Welch 2000, 2500). This paper aims to investigate the correlation between companies' dividend policy and taxed individuals. The relationship was explored in a survey conducted by Edwin J. Elton and Martin J. Grubber in 1970.
- The first one is related with companies' dividend yield. It is believed that the smaller companies' dividend yield, investors will only gain small percentage n dividend, and should expect larger return on capital gain. The most likely investors on this stock are people who fall in the high tax bracket, and consequently high dividend yield stock should be investors who fall in the low tax bracket.
- The second one is related with the amount of dividend payout.
A hypothesis suggests that companies with high dividend payments have a slower growth rate than those with low payments, making investors in lower tax brackets more attracted to high dividend payment firms. To investigate this claim, a study examined the behavior of all listed stocks on the New York Stock Exchange that paid dividends within 1966-1967.
Research conducted by Elton and Grubber in 1970 showed a positive correlation between shareholders' tax bracket level and dividend yield. This was supported by the observation that as dividend yield increased, shareholders' tax bracket decreased. However, the first decision was criticized due to significant variability in dividend payments among different companies.
The principle of preferring high dividend payouts
over high returns on capital gains applies to both individual and institutional investors, including tax-exempt pension fund companies and foundations. However, some companies may face lower taxes on dividends compared to capital gains, making high dividend payouts more attractive. (Elton and Grubber 1 970, 56).
Additional research on the impact of taxes on clients was being carried out by Franklin Allen, Antonio E. Bernard, and Vivo Welch. Their study centered on two assumptions: "untaxed institutions" and "taxed individuals," and assumed that dividends were a means of drawing in institutions. The study by Allen and team focused largely on how dividend payments entice institutions. Generally, it is accepted that institutions are drawn to Non-Dividend (ND) stocks because they are mostly tax-exempt or largely not subject to taxes.
Institutions are thought to have become more knowledgeable about firms due to the same reason. This increased knowledge enables these institutions to assess companies' quality, which is often reflected in the amount of dividend payments (Allen, Bernard, and Welch 2000, 2500).
In a broader perspective, the discoveries made by Linter, Elton, and Grubber, as well as Allen and his team, are interrelated. However, what is the exact connection between these findings?
- Lintier stated that companies prefer to payout stable dividend with gradual growth.
- Elton and Grubber stated that companies with high payouts tend to experienced more growth compare to companies with low dividend payouts.
- Allen, Bernard and Welch stated that dividend payouts signal quality of firm.
When connecting these three dots, a single line emerges, indicating that dividends are a signal of 'good' management, reflecting the quality of
firms and aiding in forecasting why companies prefer stable dividend payments. This is because reducing dividend payments is seen as a decrease in company performance, according to Lintier (1956), Tangelo and Deadening (cited in Allen, Bernard, and Welch 2000, 2518).
The main shareholders of companies have become constitutions due to the practice of earning untaxed or low-taxed dividends. Institutional investors may view a decrease in dividend payout as negative and sell shares, causing a decline in share price. Companies with high dividends grow faster because institutional investors play a major shareholder role and coexist with the company's quality. This also compels the company to defend or improve its performance to avoid unwanted situations.
Incorporating the clientele effect will enable companies to examine their client base and make appropriate adjustments to their dividend policies to align with their clients' tax preferences.
Signaling model
Managers often refer to undisclosed information regarding future cash flow, which is not available to external shareholders (Apothecary 2007, 6). This ultimately results in different priorities and leads to agency costs. This undisclosed information is related to the possible amount of future free cash flow and the amount paid in evidence.
Lie and Chaos (2008, 674) have determined that the rise of asymmetric information has caused an increase in dividend payments by companies. This conclusion has been drawn through thorough examination by economists and researchers, although it is important to note that there are certain conditions attached to this assertion.
- Companies truly possess superior quality (Allen, Bernard, and Welch 2000, 2505).
- Managers are willing to bridge information gap by releasing insider information through dividend payments (Malawi, Rafter, and
Pillar 201 0, 187).
In the signaling model, it is crucial to consider the actual quality of firms. This is because a dividend announcement is commonly interpreted as a positive indication, often leading to an increase in share price (Malawi, Rafter, and Pillar 2010, 187). The responsibility of evaluating a company's true quality typically falls on managers, who subsequently determine the company's dividend policy. Empirical research by Allen and colleagues has demonstrated that companies that are genuinely superior in value and quality tend to employ dividend announcements as a means of signaling, even though capital gains may be a more preferred option.
If managers pay dividends without understanding the true value of their companies, the market may respond by increasing share prices based on incorrect signals. However, once the true value of the companies is revealed, investors may experience disappointment and drawbacks due to taxed dividends. This could lead to selling of shares and wasted capital used for dividends, highlighting poor company value. (Allen, Bernard, and Welch 2000, 2509).
If there are no agency problems, the stated condition will remain valid. However, the introduction of such problems may lead to the manipulation of free cash flow due to the varying preferences of shareholders and managers.
According to Jensen-Neckline, a company using internal equities instead of external equities results in a situation where inside shareholders dominate ownership, leading to reduced agency cost as the insiders' interests are better aligned with those of the company (Kink 2001, 82). Conversely, with external shareholders dominating ownership, monitoring costs for shareholders increase as they need to monitor managers for potential conflicts of interest (Malawi, Rafter, and Pillar 2010, 190).
align="justify">It is commonly believed that institutions holding significant shares can influence board decisions and assist in managing agency problems.
To sum up, the use of dividends can enforce discipline among managers and ensure compliance with market regulations. This approach has also been suggested as a solution to agency costs by Allen and fellow researchers in their published paper. Based on previous research, it is evident that asymmetric information plays a significant role in a company's dividend policy. The existence of agency costs and managers' inability to accurately assess a company's true value have reduced the effectiveness of dividends as a signaling model.
Allen and colleagues suggest separating high and low firm values by providing trotter signals, or higher dividends. If this separation proves too burdensome for companies, not paying dividends at all is a better option. However, Lie and Chaos's 2008 research suggests the opposite outcome, despite being surprising, particularly in the U.S.
The belief is that companies, which have high transparency with less asymmetric information, are more likely to declare dividends. This ultimately creates skepticism about the accuracy of the signaling model. The signaling model also appears to be inaccurate in various markets.
In 1998, Demented and Wanted discussed the impact of dividend signaling in Japanese and American companies, leading to a new understanding of dividend policies in various markets.
Effective communication between two parties has significantly reduced information gap and agency cost, thereby diminishing the impact of dividend announcement and payment on companies' share prices despite potential information asymmetries. Consequently, Japanese companies are more inclined to adjust dividend payments, even cutting dividends, in response to earnings change as dividends in Japan are closely
linked to companies' earnings.
Conclusion
The study of dividend policy provides insights for financial experts, investors, and economists. Notably, renowned economists including Lintier, Modeling, Miller, and Patriarchy have conducted influential studies on the topic that serve as reference points for future research.
The first hypothesis examined is the clientele effect, which is closely linked to the Modeling and Miller dividend irrelevance theory that assumes a frictionless market and renders dividend policy irrelevant in explaining why firms pay dividends. Consequently, the clientele effect is proposed as a complementary theory to fill this gap.
According to the study, shareholders' dividend policy preferences are influenced by their tax bracket. Those in lower brackets, or in tax-exempt or lightly taxed institutions, prefer dividends because they are taxed at a lower rate than capital gains. Conversely, those in higher brackets prefer little to no dividend payment as they expect higher returns on capital gains. These two groups are known as "clientele."
Ultimately, impasses' dividend policy will be influenced by their clientele in order to align with their tax preferences.
A signaling model study highlights that a company's dividend payouts are an indicator of its quality. Dividends are frequently used as a means to signal quality particularly when there is a lack of information symmetry between shareholders and companies.
When companies announce dividend payments, it is a sign that they are high-quality firms that are willing to share information. However, in the under signaling model, asymmetrical information may occur due to agency problems. This happens because managers who hold free cash flows have
conflicting interests due to owning the majority of outside shareholders. They may prefer to invest in other areas rather than paying dividends, which can affect the reliability of the amount of paid dividends as an indication of firm quality.
- This is where the problem starts to get complicated.
According to Jensen Neckline, the problem can be solved by having major inside ownership as managers can align their interests. In contrast, Grossman, Hart, and Staterooms suggested that major outside ownership can overcome agency problem due to the outside shareholders being aware of potential conflicted interests and conducting strict surveillance. Additionally, becoming a major party of companies' ownership gives outside shareholders a higher chance of influencing boards' decisions. Allen and his colleagues propose that to overcome problems under signaling model, companies should increase dividend payments.
If paying dividends would be too much of a burden, it may be preferable to not pay any dividends at all. This aligns with the overall point made by the signaling model.
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