question

Sample regression model forecast errors (deviations of predicted values from actual values of Y) are called

answer

residuals

question

Income is used to predict savings. For the regression equation Y = 1,000 + .10X, what is Y?

answer

savings

question

Bivariate regression analysis is also referred to as simple linear least-squares regression. (t/f)

answer

True

question

Visual inspection of the data will help the forecaster identify

answer

The correct answer is "all of the above" as follows: trend seasonality linearity

question

The Y-intercept of a regression line is -14 and the slope is 3.5. Which of the following is correct?

answer

The regression line crosses the Y-axis at -14.

question

A model is said to be __________ if the model is incomplete and therefore more than one independent variable is needed.

answer

underspecified

question

In using regression analyses we begin by supposing that Y is a function of X. That is

answer

Y = f(X)

question

Business and economic data used in forecasting are most often time-series data. (t/f)

answer

True

question

There was a time when regression lines were estimated in an ad hoc manner, based solely on an analyst's visual interpretation of the data. (t/f)

answer

True

question

The sign on the slope estimate in a regression problem

answer

always has the same sign as the correlation of Y and X.

question

Two data sets that have the exact same estimated linear regression must be the same data. (t/f)

answer

False

question

Smoothing constant analysis is a statistical tool that gives the ability to estimate the mathematical relationship between a dependent variable and a single independent variable. (t/f)

answer

False

question

Intercept and Slope are terms associated with the dependent variables in multiple regression models. (t/f)

answer

False

question

The following type of variable may be qualitative or nominally scaled (such as the season of the year). These variables typically take on a value of either 0 or 1.

answer

dummy variables

question

The first thing you should do in reviewing regression results is to see whether the signs on the coefficients make sense. (t/f)

answer

True

question

When evaluating alternative mulitiple regression models, it is better to compare Root-Mean-Squared-Errors (RMSE) then R-squared values. (t/f)

answer

True

question

Multiple regression is a statistical procedure in which a dependent variable (Y) is modeled as a function of more than one independent variable (X1, X2, X3, ...., Xn). (t/f)

answer

True

question

In developing forecasts with regression models, perhaps the best advice is to follow the "KIS" principle: keep it simple. (t/f)

answer

True

question

Business and economic data series never display seasonal patterns that recur with some regularity year after year. (t/f)

answer

False

question

The values of sample statistics for determining intercept (b0) and slopes (b1, b2, .... bn) are almost always determined by utilizing:

answer

a computer software package.

question

The ordinary least-squares (OLS) criterion for the best mutiple regression model is that the sum of the squares of all the error terms be minimized. (t/f)

answer

True

question

A seasonal factor greater than 1 indicates a period in which Y is less than the yearly average. (t/f)

answer

False

question

The cyclical component of a time series is the extended wavelike movement about the long-term trend. (t/f)

answer

True

question

The cyclical component of a time series is measured by a cycle factor (CF). (t/f)

answer

True

question

The index of leading economic indicators is not one of the three noteworthy possible business cycle indicators. (t/f)

answer

False

question

The classical time-series decomposition forecasting model can be represented by the following simple algebraic statement:

answer

Y = T X S X C X I

question

Time-series decomposition models are popular because they are difficult to understand and explain. (t/f)

answer

False

question

Classical time-series decomposition involves the ratio-to-moving-average technique. (t/f)

answer

True

question

Many business and economic time series contain underlying components that, when examined individually, can help the forecaster better understand data movements and therefore make better forecasts. (t/f)

answer

True

question

The past plays no explicit role in forecasting the future in regards to the Customer Survey forecasting technique. (t/f)

answer

True

question

Which forecasting model is most likely to appear as a "black box" to management?

answer

ARIMA models

question

The sales force composite (SFC) forecasting technique requires a large volume of historical data. (t/f)

answer

False

question

Time Series Decomposition (TSD) should not be used if you are trying to determine patterns in data. (t/f)

answer

False

question

Forecast errors

answer

are useful to the extent that they contain valuable information.

question

Which of the following models are not generally the best to use when generating short-term forecasts?

answer

Customer surveys.

question

Naive forecasting models are best suited to situations in which data are stationary or trend is stable. (t/f)

answer

True

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