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Statistics

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Statistics is a branch of mathematics dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, presentation, and organization of data.

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Probability

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Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.

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Appointments in Samara: The Impacts of Prediction on Behavior

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Knowing positive predictions would equate an optimistic behavior while a negative prediction would lead to pessimism and fear,

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Omens

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an event regarded as a portent of good or evil. An omen is a phenomenon that is believed to foretell the future, often signifying the advent of change. People in the ancient times believed that omens lie with a divine message from their gods.

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Auguries

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the practice from ancient Roman religion of interpreting omens from the observed flight of birds One of the most famous auspices is the one which is connected with the founding of Rome.

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Self-fulfilling prophecy

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a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.

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Projection

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a hypothesis that is based on assumptions, not actual data.

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Prediction

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act of declaring or indicating something in advance An estimation of an event happening e.g. Whether a credit card customer is going to default on his outstanding payment

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Forecast

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Is always associated with a time dimension i.e. estimation for some specific future date or over a period of time

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Causation

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cause and effect, is when an observed event or action appears to have caused a second event or action.

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Correlation

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the relationship between two sets of variables used to describe or predict information

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Sampling error

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error in a statistical analysis arising from the unrepresentativeness of the sample taken

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Standard Deviation

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a measure of how spread out numbers are. how tightly all the various examples are clustered around the mean in a set of data.

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Confidence interval

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an estimated range of values which is likely to include an unknown population parameter

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Outliers

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the most extreme observations, may include the sample maximum or sample minimum, or both, depending on whether they are extremely high or low

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Prediction markets

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Exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is.

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Black Swans

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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild.

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Sabermetrics

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the application of statistical analysis to baseball records, especially in order to evaluate and compare the performance of individual players.

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Actuarial science

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Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, finance and other industries and professions.

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Predictive Modeling

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the process of creating, testing and validating a model to best predict the probability of an outcome. A number of modeling methods from machine learning, artificial intelligence, and statistics are available in predictive analytics software solutions for this task.

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Big Data

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high-volume,or high-variety information assets that demand cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing that enable enhanced insight, decision making, and process automation.

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Horoscope

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a forecast of a person's future, typically including a delineation of character and circumstances, based on the relative positions of the stars and planets at the time of that person's birth.

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Zodiac

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Believed to have developed in Egypt an imaginary belt of the heavens, extending about 8° on each side of the ecliptic, within which are the apparent paths of the sun, moon, and principal planets.

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I Ching

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The I Ching uses a type of divination called cleromancy, which produces apparently random numbers. Four numbers, 6 to 9, are turned into a hexagram, which can then be looked up in the I Ching book, arranged in an order known as the King Wen sequence moral decision making

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Tarot

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In the late 18th century, it began to be used for divination in the form of tarotology/cartomancy. The tarot, first known as trionfi and later as tarocchi, tarock, is a pack of playing cards, used from the mid-15th century in various parts of Europe to play games such as Italian tarocchini and French tarot.

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Ouija

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The ouija, also known as a spirit board or talking board. It uses a small heart-shaped piece of wood or plastic called a planchette. Participants place their fingers on the planchette, and it is moved about the board to spell out words.

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Tea Leaves

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Tasseography is a divination or fortune-telling method that interprets patterns in tea leaves, coffee grounds, or wine sediments.

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Palmistry

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characterization and foretelling the future through the study of the palm, also known as palm reading or chirology. The practice is found all over the world, with numerous cultural variations. Those who practice chiromancy are generally called palmists, palm readers, hand readers, hand analysts, or chirologists.

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Retrodiction

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the act of making a "prediction" about the past. the explanation or interpretation of past actions or events inferred from the laws that are assumed to have governed them. (Ex. the perihelion shift of Mercury which Newtonian mechanics plus gravity was unable, totally, to account for whilst Einstein's general relativity made short work of it.)

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Nowcasting

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defined as the prediction of the present, the very near future and the very recent past in economics. The term is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology.

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Persistence Forecasting

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The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow.

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Economic forecasting

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Governments and businesses use economic forecasts to help them determine their strategy, multi-year plans, and budgets for the upcoming year. Stock market analysts use forecasts to help them estimate the valuation of a company and its stock.

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Economic conditions

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A country's economic conditions are influenced by numerous macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. Economic data is released on a regular basis, generally weekly or monthly and sometimes quarterly. Some economic indicators like the unemployment rate and GDP growth rate are watched closely by market participants.

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Economic indicators

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used to indicate the future economic conditions. For example, indicators like new orders for manufactured goods and and new housing permits this would indicate a pace in the economic activity as it relates to the rate of manufacturing output and housing construction.

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Issues with Economic Accuracy

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There Is inaccuracy with economic data. A reason for this is a lack of designed experiments meaning observations are not produced by the user of an experiment, as in the natural sciences, but rather, statistics are simply a byproduct of business and government activities There is also an issue with falsifying statistics in companies and governments to lie to the masses about their current condition.

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Economic models

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These are used to predict outcomes like the conditions of an oil field. Although "perfect models" are assumed to have accurate predictions, it has been seen that these models need constant calibration because it's base line which is a historical point can be done through several different type of parameters but since no one knows what exactly this parameter should be, it causes different outcomes of prediction.

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Predictive analytics

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Predictive modeling is a process that uses data mining and probability to forecast outcomes. Each model is made up of a number of predictors, which are variables that are likely to influence future results. Once data has been collected for relevant predictors, a statistical model is formulated.

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Polling

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Polling data can produce accurate results but only when it is dealing with a representative data. Polling is also costly. The issue being raised about polls is that they either misrepresent due to sampling error and can distort the thinking of media and the masses but this is countered by the use of polling if done correctly.

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Confounding factor/variable

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factor that you didn't account for. They can ruin an experiment and give you useless results. They can suggest there is correlation when in fact there isn't. They can even introduce bias. This results to confounding bias.

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Sports analytics

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management of structured historical data, the application of predictive analytic models that utilize that data, and the use of information systems to inform decision makers and enable them to help their organizations in gaining a competitive advantage on the field of play.

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Betting

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Placing a wager on an outcome. Sports betting can be done either legally through a bookmaker/sportsbook or illegally through privately run enterprises referred to as "bookies".

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Bookmaking

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Term originates from the practice of recording wagers in a hard-bound ledger (the 'book') and gives the English language the term bookmaker for the person laying the bets and thus 'making the book'. A business of accepting the bets of others on the outcome of sports contests, especially of horse races. Gambling practice of determining odds and receiving and paying off bets on the outcome of sporting events

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Bracketology

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the process of predicting the field of college basketball participants in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in tournament brackets for the postseason

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Nostradamus

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He studied medicine and became a physician, treating plague victims throughout France and Italy. It's believed he had a psychic awakening. He began to practice the occult and make predictions of the future, which he published in The Prophecies. Many people today believe his predictions have come true or will in the future.

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Rasputin

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After failing to become a monk, Rasputin became a wanderer and eventually entered the court of Czar Nicholas II because of his alleged healing abilities. Known for his prophetic powers, he became a favorite of the Nicholas's wife, Alexandra Feodorovna, but his political influence was minor. Rasputin became swept up in the events of the Russian Revolution and met a brutal death at the hands of assassins in 1916.

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Cassandra

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daughter of King Priam and of Queen Hecuba of Troy. In modern usage her name is employed as a rhetorical device to indicate someone whose accurate prophecies are not believed by those around them. In an effort to seduce her, Apollo gave her the power of prophecy—but when she refused him, he spat into her mouth to inflict a curse that nobody would ever believe her prophecies. In an alternative version, she fell asleep in a temple, and snakes licked (or whispered in) her ears so that she could hear the future

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Robert Fitzroy

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British naval officer, hydrographer, and meteorologist who commanded the voyage of HMS Beagle, which sailed around the world with Charles Darwin aboard as naturalist. The voyage provided Darwin with much of the material on which he based his theory of evolution. Fitzroy was a strongly religious man. During the 1831-36 voyage, he continually resisted Darwin's growing doubts about special creation and the fixity of species. Interactions with Fitzroy, however, helped Darwin clarify his views about evolution and anticipate many objections to his theory prior to its publication.

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Michio Kaku

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He is the co-founder of string field theory (a branch of string theory), and continues Einstein's search to unite the four fundamental forces of nature into one unified theory. He holds the Henry Semat Chair and Professorship in theoretical physics and a joint appointment at City College of New York and the Graduate Center of C.U.N.Y.

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Ray Kurzweil

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He is considered one of the world's leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a 30-year track record of accurate predictions. the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.

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Nate Silver

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an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (sabermetrics) and elections (psephology). After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time in 2009.

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Nate Cohn

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his earliest hits was a predictive explanation last March of Mitch McConnell's reelection prospects heading into the midterms. He's also your go-to for, say, a demotic explanation of why "Republicans do not necessarily need significant gains among Hispanic voters to win the presidency,"

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Hari Seldon

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a fictional character in Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on the planet Trantor, Seldon develops psychohistory, an algorithmic science that allows him to predict the future in probabilistic terms

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Paul the Octopus

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Paul the Octopus (26 January 2008 - 26 October 2010) was a common octopus which was purportedly used to predict the results of association football matches. Accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup brought it worldwide attention as an animal oracle.

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Yoda

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"Impossible to see, the future is." - Yoda Here, Yoda reminds us that it's pointless to try to predict the future. Better to just set your intention and focus on the present.

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Sybill Trelawney

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It was Trelawney herself who made the prophecy concerning Voldemort and the one with the power to vanquish him

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Paora Te Potangaroa

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a Māori prophet and rangatira of the Ngāti Kahungunu in the Wairarapa region of the North Island of New Zealand. Little is known about his life, but he is known for having uttered an 1881 prophecy of the coming of a church that would be for the Māori people.

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John Elfreth Watkins Jr.

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a civil engineer working for American railroads of the 19th century. - digital color photography - growth of US population will slow down -Americans will be taller - television -tanks

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Y2K

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Problems arose because programmers represented the four-digit year with only the final two digits. This made the year 2000 indistinguishable from 1900. The assumption that a twentieth-century date was always understood caused various errors, such as the incorrect display of dates, and the inaccurate ordering of automated dated records or real-time events.

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2012 Doomsday Phenomenon

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a range of eschatological beliefs that cataclysmic or otherwise transformative events would occur on or around 21 December 2012. This date was regarded as the end-date of a 5,126-year-long cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar

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Final Anthropic Principle

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probably the most controversial of the many versions of the Anthropic Principle. The universe's end result produced us.

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The Called Shot

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A New York Yankees' baseball player named Babe Ruth hit a homerun in the 1932 World Series. Before batting, Ruth made a gesture to the center-field bleachers which people assumed him saying that he will score a homerun which he actually was able to do.

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AMA Prophecy

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A prophecy during the time of Byzantine emperor, Manuel I Comnenus. The initial letters of the Comnenus dynasty would spell aima. This was fulfilled but was ended after the reign of Isaac II Aima in medieval times meant blood.

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Benford's Law

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It is also called the first-digit law. The first digit in significant figures (sigfigs) in a data is most likely a small number. The number 1 gets about 30% in probability while the number 9 gets around 5% probability.

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Schrodinger's Cat

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quantum mechanics you know this already ;0

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Law of Truly Large Numbers

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attributed to Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, states that with a sample size large enough, any outrageous thing is likely to happen. Example: Winning a lottery twice may seem as a coincidence but in law of truly large numbers, given enough time and enough people, this event will really happen and it is not just a miracle of some sort.

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Littlewood's Law

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defines a miracle as an exceptional event of special significance occurring at a frequency of one in a million. He assumes that during the hours in which a human is awake and alert, a human will see or hear one "event" per second, which may be either exceptional or unexceptional.

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The Birthday Problem

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birthday paradox concerns the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, some pair of them will have the same birthday. By the pigeonhole principle, the probability reaches 100% when the number of people reaches 367 (since there are only 366 possible birthdays, including February 29). However, 99.9% probability is reached with just 70 people, and 50% probability with 23 people.

WSC Social Studies – Predicting the Future – Flashcards

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