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IPCC
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Intergovernmental Panel on CC Established 1998 by WMO and UNEP Runs under auspices of UN 195 member countries Purpose is to be policy neutral and policy relevant but NEVER POLICY PRESCRIPTIVE WG1 = physical science basis WG2 = adaptation WG3 = mitigation Most recent publication = AR5 - publications every 5 years
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UNFCCC
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International legal agreement on GHGs 1992 Rio Earth summit - entered into force 1994. 189 parties - now 197. Goal: protecting climate system for now and future - achieve GHG stabilization
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COP
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Conference of the parties.
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Arctic Council
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Established in 1996 by the Ottawa Declaration - 8 Arctic States and their indigenous groups + observer groups and observer international organizations and NGOs collaborate on common issues in the North such as sustainable development and environmental protection.
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Mitigation
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An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of GHGs Actionable at various scales: lifestyle, industry, infrastructure, ecosystem management, economic incentives
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Adaptation
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Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment - ecological, social, economic systems in response to current or expected cc - manage risks as well as opportunities
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Atmospheric lag effect
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CO2 concentration, temperature, and sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced
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Coping range
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= to a systems current adaptive capacity not static - adaptation can increase a coping range Different for each system/region/community/nation
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Adaptive capacity
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The potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change - relative to cc vulnerability Anticipatory vs reactive
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CO2 equivalent
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Global warming potential (GWP) and persistance time in the atmosphere compared to CO2 100 year GWP compared to CO2: CO2 = 1 Methane = 25 NO2 = 298
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Ecosystem services
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Regulating, provisioning, cultural and supporting services that come from ecosystem resources
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The percentage of solar radiation received from the Earth is:
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49%
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Albedo
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The Earth's capacity to reflect solar radiation
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Shipping has increased by at least this much in Arctic Canada since 2005
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75%
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RCP
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Representative Concentration Pathway used in the new AR5 scenarios by the IPCC
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What is the difference between weather and climate?
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Weather is the short term (hours, days, weeks) atmospheric conditions (precipitation, temperature, wind, humidity, aire pressure etc.) for a particular location while climate is an average trend calculated over 30 years for a specific location.
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How is mitigation different from adaptation?
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Mitigation addresses the anthropogenic causes of climate change (GHG emissions), adaptation addresses its impacts (before and after).
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What is the role of the IPCC at COP?
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Inform (clear scientific view) on current state of knowledge regarding cc + potential socio-economic and environmental impacts and identify options for adaptation + mitigation
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Major negotiating groups at COP
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AOSIS, EU, Umbrella Group, JUSSCANNZ, G-77/China, Environmental integrity Group, BASIC Within G77/China = OPEC, African Group, Group of Latin America + Caribbean, AOSIS,
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Regional groups at COP
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Asia, Africa, Central + Eastern Europe, Latin America + Caribbean States (GRULAC), Western Europe and Others (WEOG)
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COP divisions of parties
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Annexe 1 (41 OECD countries from 1992 + 12 new ones) - non - legally binding reduce GHGs Annexe 2 (only original OECD countries - richest of the developed countries) Reduce + support others Non - Annexe 1 (all other countries, including LDC) commitments tbd
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UNFCCC 4 principles
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- common but differentiated responsibilities - precautionary principle - principle of cost - effectiveness - principle of sustainable development
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UNFCCC goals
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- protect the climate system for present + future generations - achieve stabilization of GHG emissions at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
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UNFCCC solutions to protect climate system
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- More energy efficiency - Protection of GHG sinks and reservoirs - Limitation + reduction of transport and waste-management GHGs - Policy change + implementation of market- based instruments to support GHG limits + reductions
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UNFCCC institutional framework
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UN general assembly governs UNEP, WMO and UNFCCC. IPCC is governed by UNEP + WMO and informs UNFCCC
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9 planetary boundaries
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Nitrogen + phosphorous cycles, climate change, biodiversity loss, , ocean acidification, chemical pollution, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, global freshwater use, change in land use
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Planetary boundaries that we have already transgressed
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Nitrogen cycle, climate change, biodiversity loss
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Climate Normal
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Set of 30 year average climate for a particular location relative to a particular baseline (ex. 19961-1990 climate normal).
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What is the difference between the natural greenhouse effect and the enhanced greenhouse effect?
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The natural greenhouse effect keeps the Earth at a liveable temperature (30 degrees C warmer than it would otherwise be) by insulating the atmosphere such that enough of the sun's radiation is absorbed. The enhanced greenhouse effect is causing the Earth to warm dangerously due to anthropogenic GHG emissions.
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What is hindcasting?
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Using data about past climate to create mathematical models that predict future climate trends (understanding the past to understand the future)
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Why has climate change become more of a social science than a natural science?
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Because humans are part of their environment so we must consider anthropogenic sources of CC as well as solutions that humans can implement through policies in order to best predict cc and adapt to it. Use GCMs as well as analogs. Impacts will be felt via social systems.
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List some key limitations of cc models
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- some are based solely on natural science (GCMs) while others take into account human contribution + solutions (analogs) - mathematical predictions decrease in certainty the further into the future they go - There are so many possible scenarios that it's hard to know which one to use + options vary depending on what is being discussed - Some climate models are easier to understand (better presented) than others. Science must be presented so that policy makers as well as the public can understand.
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4 causes of natural climate variability
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- Eccentricity of Earth - Ocean currents (gulf stream, El Nino) - Sea ice extent + albedo - Tectonic plates (tsunamis, volcanoes)
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4 causes of anthropogenic climate variability
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- GHG emissions - Deforestation (less carbon sinks + more desertification) - Coastline erosion (amplifies rising sea level) - Building materials (concrete absorbes heat and creates heat islands)
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Why are baselines important when calculating emission targets?
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We use baselines to compare current climate or climate goals to what the climate used to be like. We usually use the 1961-1990 baseline because if we use a more recent one, warming since then will appear more gradual and less significant.
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4 main GHGs
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Water (60%), CO2 (26%), Ozone (8%), Methane + Nitrous oxide (6%)
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Planetary boundary
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Non-negotiable planetary pre-conditions that humanity needs to respect in order to avoid the risk of catastrophic environmental changes at continental to global scales
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What is the main factor that would define the move from the holocene to the anthropocene?
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Holocene = stable environment Anthropocene = era in which climate is so influenced by humans that long-term effects are unknown
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Common but differentiated responsibilities
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Responds to the fundamental issue of fairness (or lack thereof) in terms of addressing the cc problem
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Precautionary principle
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activities that threaten serious or irreversible damage can be restricted or even prohibited BEFORE there is absolute certainty about their effects
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Principle of cost - effectiveness
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all policies and measures that deal with cc should be cost - effective (minimize cost of mitigating cc) in response to concern by industrialized countries
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Principle of sustainable development
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Article 4 : "parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable development" in response to justified concerns by poorer developed countries regarding expense of implementing UNFCCC objectives
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COP institutional framework
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COP includes UNFCCC secretariat, SBI, SBSTA + IPCC
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All party commitments
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- prepare + regularly update national adaptation + mitigation strategies - participate in climate research + education - provide regular national communications to the convention on their emissions + strategies
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COP 21 highlights
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Common agreement (197 parties) on mitigation + adaptation - Paris Agreement. Global temp rise well below 2 deg C - goal = 1.5 above pre-industrial times.
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SPACC
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Special program for Adaptation to CC - funds projects such as Bequia Desalination plant
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What are some ways of measuring past climate?
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Tree rings, Rock paintings, geomorphology, geologic record, ice cores, pollen grains, corals
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What was the most stable period in Earth's history?
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the Holocene
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What are some ways of measuring current climate?
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Weather balloons, weather stations, observing systems, aircraft, rockets
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SRES
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Special report on emissions scenarios - used by IPCC before RCPs. SRES includes direct socio-economic factors, RCP only gases + land use but one is not necessarily better than another
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Roughly what percentage of Canada lies in the North?
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75%
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What percentage of Canada is part of the ARCTIC?
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40%
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Shipping has increased by this much in the Arctic in the last 5 years
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400%
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Economic incentives
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Positive: subsidies, payment for ecosystem services Negative: taxes, carbon pricing (fees/charges), levy's
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Carbon tax
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A price is set per t of CO2 or CO2 e- and countries have to pay per ton that they emit - pay who? What is that money then used for ?
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Emissions trading - joint implementation, CDM,
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Countries have an emissions cap and they can pay other countries for a share of theirs - allowances = permits to pollute
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Carbon offsets
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The ability to exchange money for a guarantee that your emissions have been offset by another's actions ex planting trees that will absorb the same amount of CO2 you just emitted
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Carbon footprint
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CO2 emissions/person. Sustainable footprint = 3,200kg per person per year
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Kyoto protocol
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Adopte 1997 - came into force 2005 191 member countries Under UNFCCC Defines legally binding targets for reducing GHG emissions by -national strategies or -Emissions trading -Clean development mechanism -Joint implementation
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Mitigation wedge
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An activity that reduces emissions starting at 0 in 2007 and increases linearly until it accounts for 1BtC/year of reduced carbon emissions by 2057. A solution to the CO2 problem should provide at least 1 wedge.
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CDM
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Clean development mechanism Under Kyoto protocol Implement emission reduction program in a developing country to earn CER credits that count toward Kyoto protocol
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Joint implementation (JI)
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Under kyoto protocol - earn ERU (emission reduction units from a project and use them or sell them on the open market - flexible + cost efficient way of meeting kyoto targets while host party gains foreign investment and technology transfer
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Last chance tourism
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Tourism driven by climate change - want to visit before it's too late
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Determinants of adaptive capacity
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Economic resources, technology, information and skills, technology, infrastructure, institutions, equity - developing countries have lower adaptive capacity and higher reliance on climatic resources
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