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Burns & bush Definition of Marketing Research

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The process of designing, gathering, analyzing, and reporting information that may be used to solve a specific marketing problem.

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A.m.a definition of Marketing research

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The function that links the consumer, customer, and public to the marketer through information.

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4 uses of information:

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1. identify & define marketing opportunities and problems; 2. generate, refine, and evaluate marketing actions; 3. monitor marketing performance; and 4. improve understanding of marketing as a process

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Marketing research [as a process]: (5)

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1. specifies the info required to address these issues; 2. designs the method for collecting the info; 3. manages and implements the data collection process; 4. analyzes the results; and 5. communicates the findings and their implications

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Marketing research

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-A process used by businesses to collect, analyze, and interpret info used to make sound business decisions and successfully manage the business. -Provides problem-specific information -Project-based (has beginning and end)

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Market research

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A process used to define the size, location, and/or makeup of the market for a product or service.

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Characteristics of marketing research

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1. Generates information 2. Has different application areas 3. Is a process

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Generates information

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- Not just data - Information must be accurate, objective, timely

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Has different application areas

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a.) Marketing decision making - Applied Research b.) Improving understanding of marketing as a process - Basic Research

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Is a process

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- consists of a sequence of interrelated stages - must be a systematic and objective - hallmarks of The Scientific Method

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Types of marketing research studies (3)

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1. By application of research results -usage category in AMA definition 2. By type of data collected 3. By focal research design

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By application of research results - usage category in ama definition (4)

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a.) Opportunity/Problem identification research b.) Problem-solving research c.) Marketing performance monitoring research a) to c) is "Applied Research" d.) Research to improve understanding of marketing as a process - Basic Research

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By type of data collected

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- Qualitative or Quantitative research

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By focal research design

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- Exploratory, Descriptive, or Causal research

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Applied research

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Research that is conducted to provide information to: -Solve a real-life marketing problem, or -Make decisions about particular courses of marketing action

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Basic (or pure) research

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Research that is conducted to: -Expand the boundaries of marketing knowledge -Verify the acceptability of a given marketing theory, -Learn more about a marketing concept or construct Findings usually do not have immediate implications for marketing practice.

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Quantitative research

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- Research in which the data generated is in the form of numbers (quantitative data) that can be objectively analyzed. - Typically involves the use of structured questions, predetermined response options, and a large number of respondents.

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Qualitative research

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- Research in which the data generated is in the form of text (qualitative data), i.e. non-standardized data that can only be subjectively analyzed. - Typically involves the use of observation or unstructured, open-ended questions and a small number of respondents.

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Exploratory research

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-QUALITY -Research to gain background information about a marketing issue, such as possible causes of a marketing problem. E.g. why are our sales declining?

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Descriptive research

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-QUANTITY -Research to describe marketing phenomena, e.g. who are our customers? what, where, when, and how do they buy our products? -Desirable when we with to project a study's findings to a larger population

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Causal research

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-QUANTITY -Research to test cause-effect relationships among marketing variables, e.g. what effect will a price increase have on sales of our product? -Goal is to establish that "x" is a cause or "y" (or "y" is the effect of "x"). -Requires understanding the concept of "causality" and its necessary conditions

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Marketing research helps organizations to: (2)

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1. implement the marketing concept - the philosophy of modern marketing 2. carry out strategic marketing - the practice of modern marketing

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The marketing concept

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A business philosophy that holds that the key to achieving organizational goals lies in the company being more effective than competitors in creating, delivering, and communicating customer value to its chosen markets.

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3 components the marketing concept implies

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- customer orientation - cross-functional integration - profit orientation --> Long-run profitability

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Customer orientation- MR provides information to: (3)

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- identify customer needs - determine ways to satisfy those needs - measure and monitor customer satisfaction

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cross-functional integration (2)

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- MR information helps all relevant departments understand the customer perspective - Helps avoid consequences

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Profitability - MR provides information for: (3)

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- selective targeting - sales and cost analyses - analyses of marketing ROI

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Strategic marketing

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What marketing managers do to chart the future strategic directions of their organizations.

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Strategic marketing generally involves: (5)

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1. identifying and evaluating market opportunities 2. analyzing market segments and selecting target markets 3. planning and implementing marketing programs (the marketing mix) 4. analyzing marketing performance 5. controlling marketing activities

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Uses of marketing research in ama definition (4)

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1. Identify marketing opportunities and problems 2. Generate, refine, and evaluate potential marketing actions 3. Monitor marketing performance 4. Improve marketing as a process

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Generate, Refine, and evaluate potential marketing actions (5)

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-Selecting target markets -Product research -Pricing research -Promotion research -Distribution research

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Monitor marketing performance (2)

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-Tracking data collected at point-of-sale terminals as consumer packages goods are scanned in grocery stores, mass merchandisers, and convenience stores -Tracking social media

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Basic research is conducted to...

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Expand our knowledge rather than to solve a specific problem.

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The marketing information system

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A structure consisting of people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and accurate information to marketing decisions makers.

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Components of an MIS (4)

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1. Internal Reports System 2. Marketing Intelligence System 3. Marketing Decision Support System (DSS) 4. Marketing Research System

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Internal Reports System

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- Internal accounting system for maintaining records on orders, sales, accounts receivable, inventory, etc.

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Marketing intelligence system

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- System for collecting information about the external environment

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Marketing decision support system (dss)

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- Tools and techniques that analyze data and present results to help managers make decisions

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Marketing research system

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- What this course is about

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MR & the mktis - both

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-Provide information for decision making. -Marketing Research contributes to the broader MktIS by gathering information not otherwise gathered by the other MIS component subsystems.

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Mktis

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-Provides continuous information -Is NOT project-based -Is broader and encompasses Marketing Research

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The marketing research process (11 steps)

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1. Establish the need for marketing research 2. Define the problem 3. Establish research objectives 4. Determine research design 5. Identify information types and sources DATA 6. Determine methods of accessing data 7. Design data collection forms 8. Determine the sample plan and size 9. Collect data 10. Analyze data 11. Prepare and present the final research report

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Step 1: Establish the need for marketing research

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Managers don't use research information to make all marketing decisions.

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Step 1 continued... Rather whether or not they use research information is determined by two factors:

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1. Company policy toward use of marketing research 2. Existence of certain pre-conditions

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a) Company policy (5)

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1. No-research policy 2. Regular, periodic research 3. Situation-specific research 4. Research as-needed policy 5. Method-specific research preference

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No-research policy

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Decisions are based on experience and intuition.

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Regular, periodic research

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Particular types of studies conducted at specified intervals (e.g. customer satisfaction studies, brand awareness studies, etc.)

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Situation-specific research

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Research is done only in specific situations (e.g. new product launch)

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Research as-needed policy

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Research is conducted only when management feels the need for additional information

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Method-specific research preference

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Managers have preference for specific types of research, e.g. preference for qualitative vs. quantitative research

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b) pre-conditions - marketing research is often NOT needed when: (5)

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1. the information needed to make a decision is already available 2. decisions must be made now and there is no time to do research 3. funds are not available for research - we can't afford research 4. decisions are tactical rather than strategic 5. the cost of information to be generated outweighs its value

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Step 2: define the problem (2)

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-Involves trying to understand the underlying structure of the problem -Most important step in the research process!

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Step 2: continued...need to distinguish between two types of problems:

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- the marketing decision problem and - the research problem

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Step 3: establish research objectives (3)

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-Are statements of what the researcher must do to provide the information necessary to solve the manager's decision problem (choose among alternative courses of action) -Spell out exactly what information will be collected, in what format, by what method, and from whom -Are related to, and determined by the research problem definition

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Step 4: determine research design...a research design is: (3)

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-The research approach undertaken to meet the research objectives -A master plan that specifies the methods and procedures for collecting and analyzing the needed information -Choice of research design determined by extent of clarity in the problem

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Step 4: continued...3 broad types of research design:

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1. Exploratory Research 2. Descriptive Research 3. Causal Research

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Step 5: identify types and sources of data (information)...two types of data (information):

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1. Primary Data 2. Secondary information data

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Primary data

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Data collected specifically for the problem at hand

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Secondary information data

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Data collected by someone else for a purpose other than the problem at hand

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Step 6: determine methods of accessing data...secondary data (2)

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- Electronic search - CD-ROM, online search - Traditional search - library sources

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Step 6: continued...primary data (2)

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1. Observation 2. Communication - have a person ask questions - use computer-assisted or direct questioning - allow respondents to answer questions themselves without computer assistance - mixed-mode or hybrid methods

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Step 7: design data collection forms

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-Forms (e.g. questionnaires and observation forms) are used to request and/or record information -Form design is critical to research success -Questionnaire must be worded objectively, clearly, and without bias. -Software programs are available to assist marketing researchers in preparing forms, e.g. Qualtrics

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Step 8: determine sample plan and size...sample plan (2)

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- Process used to select units from the population from whom data will be collected - Critical determinant of sample representativeness

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Step 8: continued...sample size (2)

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- How many units or elements of the population will be included in the sample - Larger samples produce smaller sampling errors (greater accuracy)

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Step 9: collect data

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-Fieldwork to actually collect the data (e.g. interviewing respondents, distributing questionnaires, etc.) -Very important because non-sampling errors (attributable to field workers or respondents) occur during data collection -Important to know the sources of these errors and the controls needed to minimize them -->no data analysis method can fix bad data.

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Step 10: analyze data...typically involves: (4)

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- entering data into computer files, - inspecting data for errors, - cleaning the data, and - running tabulations and various statistical tests as required by the research objectives

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Step 11: prepare and present the final research report (2)

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Involves communicating research results to the client through: -Preparing a written report, and/or -Making an oral presentation One of the most important phases of marketing research because it: -Documents what was done -Is often the only way the client can judge the research's quality

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Linkages in research process stages

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Process is frequently cyclical - conclusions generate new ideas & challenges for further research Stages can overlap chronologically Stages are functionally interrelated through: -Forward linkages -Backward linkages

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Forward linkages

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Decisions taken during early phases of the research process affect decisions that can be taken during later stages

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Backward linkages

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Knowledge of decisions to be taken during later stages should guide decisions taken during earlier stages.

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Important caveats about the marketing research process (3)

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-The research process is NOT always presented as an 11-step process -Not all studies use all 11 steps -Some studies may not follow the steps in order

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Importance of properly defining the problem (3)

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1. A problem well defined is half solved 2. How the problem is defined determines what direction the project takes and what solution (information) is obtained 3. Proper problem definition ensures that the research results will meet decision maker's objectives

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problem

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-A situation calling for management to make a decision, i.e. choice among alternatives -->i.e., the management/decision problem -Often indicated by "symptoms", i.e. changes in the level of some key monitor that measures the achievement of an objective

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Problem derives from a gap between: (2)

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1. what was supposed to happen and what did happen --> failure to meet an objective, or 2. what did happen and what could have happened --> an opportunity to be exploited

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Research objectives

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State specifically what information the research must produce so that the manager can choose the correct decision alternative to solve the problem

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Research objectives spell out exactly: (3)

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1. what information will be collected --> variables or constructs that will be measured, 2. from whom the information will be collected --> i.e. what the unit of analysis will be 3. in what format and by what method --> i.e., how constructs will be operationalized

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Research objectives consist of two types:

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1. Broad research objective 2. Specific research objectives

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Broad research objective

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Statement of the general information to be generated by the research

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Specific research objectives (3)

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-Statements of more specific, detailed information to be generated by the research -Used to break the broad objective into smaller, manageable components -Drive other aspects of the research process

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Specific research objectives drive other aspects of the research process: (3)

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- Form the basis for research hypotheses - Determine what specific data to collect and how to collect it - Determine what analysis techniques to use

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hypotheses

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Informed assumptions about consequences of decision alternatives; Guesses about possible outcomes of the research Unproven statements or propositions relating to the phenomenon of interest to the researcher; or to relationships among variables to be investigated -Often declarative and amenable to disconfirmation -May be descriptive or relational - correlational or causal

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rfp

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Request for Proposal

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itb

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Invitation to Bid

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Contents of itbs and rfps (6)

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1. Background company information 2. Scope of proposal 3. Deliverables 4. Evaluation criteria 5. Deadline for project execution 6. Bidding specifics -Proposal due date; proposal nature, length, etc.; payment schedule, contact persons, etc.

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The marketing research proposal

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A formal written document prepared by the researcher to the "client" to serve three important fucntions.

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3 important functions of the marketing research proposal

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1) state the problem 2) specify the research objectives 3) detail the research method proposed by the researcher to accomplish the research objectives

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Contents of the marketing research proposal (11)

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1. Introduction 2. Problem Statement 3. Research Objectives 4. Research Design 5. Measurement 6. Sample Design 7. Data gathering 8. Data Processing/Analysis 9. Presentation of Results 10. Time Schedule 11. Budget

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1. introduction

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Background including reference to RFP (if any)

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2. Problem statement (3)

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- Company, division, or principals involved - Symptoms and probable causes - Decision alternatives (if possible)

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4. Research Design (2)

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- Specific research method (or methods) to be used - Justification for choice of methods

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5. Measurement (2)

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- How variables will be measured - Sample questions

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6. Sample design (2)

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- What the target population will be - How the sample will be selected and what size of sample

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7. Data gathering

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How the data will be collected and by who

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8. Data processing/analysis (2)

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- How the data will be processed - Analysis techniques will be used for specific objectives

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9. Presentation of results

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Written report/Oral presentation

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10. Time schedule

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Time schedule for completion of the study

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11. budget

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Overall cost of the study (including breakdown of different cost components)

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Functions of a research proposal - For management (the client): (3)

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1. Evaluation 2. Choosing research suppliers 3. Judgment standard

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Evaluation

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It helps the client to evaluate the ability of the research to accomplish its objectives

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Choosing research suppliers

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Client judges quality of different research suppliers from their proposals

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Judgment standard

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It is a standard for determining if the research was conducted as planned

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Functions of a research proposal - for the researcher: (2)

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1. Thinking ahead 2. Bidding document

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Thinking ahead

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It forces the researcher to think through the different stages of the research process

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Bidding document

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It serves as the researcher's bid to offer a specific service

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Functions of a research proposal - for both parties: (2)

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1. Communication 2. Written Contract

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communication

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It serves as a means of communication between the researcher and the client (decision maker)

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Written contract

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It serves as a written contract that can always be referred to

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Research design

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A set of advanced decisions that make up the master plan specifying the methods and procedures for collecting and analyzing the needed information.

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Basic research designs - choice of most appropriate design depends on: (2)

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1. the research objectives, and 2. how much is known about the problem and research objectives

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Goals/uses of exploratory research: (4)

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- gain background information - define terms - clarify problems and hypothesis - establish research priorities

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Descriptive research methods (3)

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1. Observation 2. Secondary Data Analysis 3. Surveys -Personal interviews -Telephone interviews -Self-administered interviews

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Descriptive research categories (2)

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1. Cross-sectional studies 2. Longitudinal studies

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Cross-sectional studies

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Studies in which data are collected from a sample of the population at only one point in time. Take a "snapshot" of the population at a point in time. -E.g. sample surveys

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Longitudinal studies

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Studies in which data are collected at different points in time and analysis is done on the collective set of data collected

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Longitudinal studies...two types of sample units at different time periods

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a) The same sample units each time period --> PANEL STUDY b) Different sample units each time period --> TRACKING (OR COHORT) STUDY

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Marketing research panels

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Maintained by many large research firms

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Two types of marketing research panels:

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1. Continuous panels 2. Discontinuous panels

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Continuous panels

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Panel members are asked the same questions on each measurement

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Discontinuous panels

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-Questions vary from one panel measurement to the next -Sometimes referred to as omnibus ("including or covering many things or classes") panels

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2 uses of longitudinal studies

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1. Brand switching studies 2. Market tracking studies

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Brand switching studies

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Requires continuous panels

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Market tracking studies

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Can use non-continuous panels

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"x" is the cause of "y" requires: (3)

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1. co-variation between x and y - statistical covariance or correlation 2. a particular time sequence x and y - "x" must happen before "y" 3. eliminating alternative factors as causes of y

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experiment

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The process of manipulating an independent variable to see how it affects a dependent variable, while also controlling the effects of additional extraneous variables. Key words: -Independent variable -Dependent variable -Extraneous variable -Manipulation -Control

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Independent variables

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Variables over which the researcher has control and wishes to (or can ) manipulate. EX: ad expenditure, shelf position, price, product features

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Dependent variables

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Variables over which the researcher has little or no direct control but is interested in. EX: sales, brand preference, market share, customer satisfaction

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Extraneous variables

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-Variables that may have some effect on a dependent variable yet are not independent variables. -These must be controlled for through proper experimental design.

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Experimental design

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-A procedure for devising the setting and details of an experiment so that the researcher can confidently attribute any change in a dependent variable solely to the change in an independent variable. -Differ in the extent to which they include pretests and posttests

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Experimental design typically details: (4)

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1. the test units and how they are to be divided into homogeneous subsamples 2. what independent variables or treatments are to be manipulated 3. what dependent variables are to be measured, and 4. how the extraneous variables are to be controlled

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O

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Measurement of a dependent variable

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X

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Manipulation, or change, of an independent variable

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R

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Random assignment of subjects to experimental and control groups

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E

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Experimental effect

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pretest

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Measurements of the dependent variable taken prior to changing the independent variable

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posttest

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Measurements of the dependent variable taken after changing the independent variable

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True experimental design

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-One that truly isolates the effects of the independent variable E.g. the "Before-After with Control Group" design -Test units are randomly assigned to either experimental or the control group -A pretreatment measure (pretest) is taken on each group -Selection bias is eliminated by randomization -Treatment effect (TE) is measured as: (02-01)-(04-03).

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Quasi experimental design

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-One that does not truly isolate the effects of the independent variable -E.g. the "One-Group, Before-After" design

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2 Quasi experimental designs

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1. One-Group, Before-After Design -01 X 02 2. After-Only Design -X 01

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2 types of experimental validity:

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1. internal validity 2. external validity

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Internal validity

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The extent to which the change in the dependent variable is actually due to the change in the independent variable

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External validity

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The extent to which the relationship observed between the independent and dependent variables during the experiment is generalizable to the "real world."

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3 types of experiments

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1. Laboratory vs. Field Experiments 2. Basic vs. Factorial Experiments 3. Within vs. Between-Subjects Experiments

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Laboratory experiments

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-The independent variable is manipulated and measures of the dependent variable are taken in a contrived, artificial setting for the purpose of controlling the many possible extraneous variables that may affect the dependent variable -Good at establishing internal validity

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Field experiments

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-The independent variables are manipulated and the measurements of the dependent variable are made on test units in their natural setting. -Good at establishing external validity

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Test marketing

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An experimental procedure that provides an opportunity to test a new product or a new marketing plan under realistic market conditions to measure sales or profit potential

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Uses of test markets: (3)

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- To test sales potential (forecast sales) for a new product or service - To test variations in the marketing mix for a product or service - To identify product weaknesses

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4 types of test marketing

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1. Standard test marketing 2. Controlled test marketing 3. Electronic test marketing 4. Simulated test marketing

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Standard test marketing

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Uses normal distribution

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Controlled test marketing

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Uses guaranteed distribution

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Electronic test marketing

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Uses scanner-based panels and split-cable broadcasting systems

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Simulated test marketing

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Based on purchase probabilities and modeling using data from laboratory experimentation

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Exploratory research: purpose of the research (4)

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-Discovery -Clarification of ambiguous problems -Formulation of hypotheses -Increase researcher's familiarity with decision problem

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Descriptive research: purpose of the research (3)

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-Describe characteristics of groups (who, what, etc) -Estimate population proportions -Test specific predictions --> Can be cross-sectional or longitudinal

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Causal research: purpose of the research (4)

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Examine cause-effect relationships Need to: -Establish co-variation -Establish time sequence of variables -Eliminate alternative causes

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Exploratory research: data collection method (6)

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-Secondary data analyses -Experience surveys -Case studies -Focus group discussions -Depth interviews -Projective techniques

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Descriptive research: data collection method (3)

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Observation Surveys -Personal interviews -Telephone interviews -Self-administered interviews Secondary Data Analysis

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Causal research: data collection method

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Experimentation -Laboratory experiments -Field experiments

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Qualitative research purpose:

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Discover ideas

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Quantitative research purpose:

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Test hypotheses or specific research questions

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Qualitative research approach:

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Observe and interpret

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Quantitative research approach:

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Measure and test

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Qualitative research data collection method type:

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Unstructured; free-forms

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Quantitative research data collection method type:

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Structured; pre-determined response categories

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Qualitative researcher independence:

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Researcher intimately involved; subjective interpretation

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Quantitative researcher independence:

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Researcher detached; results are objective

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Qualitative research sample:

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Small samples - often natural setting

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Quantitative research sample:

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Large samples to allow generalization

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Qualitative research most often used in:

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Exploratory research designs

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Quantitative research most often used in:

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Descriptive and causal research designs

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7 Qualitative research methods

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1. focus group discussions 2. in-depth interviews 3. projective techniques 4. Protocol analysis 5. Ethnographic research 6. Physiological measurement 7. Observation

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5 common projective techniques

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a) word association tests b) sentence completion tests c) picture tests (TAT) d) cartoon or balloon tests e) role-playing

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Focus group discussions

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-Unstructured discussions with small groups of people guided by a moderator for the purpose of gaining information relevant to the research problem -Moderator's task is to ensure that open discussion is "focused" on the area of interest -Size: 6-12 -Who: homogneous -Recruiting: use incentives -Selection: depends on the study's purpose -Where: place conducive to group discussion -When moderator gets involved: early -Reporting results: report qualitative data

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2 types of focus groups

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1. Traditional 2. Nontraditional/ Contemporary

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Traditional focus group

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Select 6-12 persons and meet in a dedicated room with one-way mirror for client viewing, for about two hours

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Nontraditional/ contemporary focus groups

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Use other interaction modes such as online

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4 uses of focus groups

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1. Generate ideas 2. Learn respondents' "vocabulary," 3. Reveal consumer goals, needs, motives, perceptions, and attitudes 4. Understand findings from quantitative studies

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4 advantages of focus groups

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1. Generate fresh ideas 2. Allow clients to observe their participants 3. May be directed at understanding a wide variety of issues 4. Allow fairly easy access to special respondent groups

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3 disadvantages of focus groups

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1. Representativeness of participants 2. Interpretation sometimes difficult 3. High cost per participant

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In-depth interviews

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-Interview involving a set of probing questions posed one-on-one to a subject (e.g. consumer) by a trained interviewer to gain deeper insight into what the subject thinks about something or why he or she behaves in a certain way -Questioning is unstructured -A popular format is laddering

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Projective techniques

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A collection of exploratory/qualitative research techniques based on indirect questioning -Respondents are placed in (projected into) simulated activities and asked to respond on behalf of another person or object -The hope is that respondents will project themselves into that person and divulge things about themselves that they might not reveal under direct questioning Often used when direct questioning is not likely to provide honest responses

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Word association test

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-A projective technique in which subjects are presented with a work and asked to indicate what other words come to mind -May be used to develop an associative network of words related to a focal word -Useful in brand name testing and product concept testing

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Sentence completion test

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-A projective technique in which subjects are given incomplete sentences and asked to complete them with the word or phrase that first comes to mind -Modified version is the story completion test

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Picture test

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Participants are given a picture and asked to write a short story about it; goal is to tap into participant's feelings

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Thematic apperception test (t.a.t)

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Participants are given a series of pictures and asked to develop a story about the pictures

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Cartoon or balloon tests

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A projective technique in which respondents are presented with a cartoon drawing representing an incomplete dialogue and asked to suggest a dialogue that the characters might engage in

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Role playing

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A projective technique in which respondents are asked to pretend that they are a "third person" (e.g. neighbor) and to describe how they would react to a specific statement (or behave in a particular situation)

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Protocol analysis

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-Ask respondents to verbalize their thought processes -Involves placing a person in a decision-making situation and asking him or her to verbalize everything he or she considers when making a decision

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Ethnographic research

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-Detailed study of a group and its characteristics, behavior, culture, etc. through becoming highly active in the group -Typically uses purposeful observation (i.e. focusing on specific features of behaviors that are of interest to the study) as a data collection tool, hence the term participant-observation.

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Physiological measurements

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Monitoring a respondent's involuntary responses to marketing stimuli via the use of electrodes and other equipment

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3 types of physiological measurements

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- Eye tracking - Pupilometer - Galvanometer

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Eye tracking

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A technique for measuring where the eyes are looking

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pupilometer

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A device that determines the respondents' interest in an issue by measuring amount of dilation of the eye pupil

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galvanometer

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Determines level of excitement by measuring electrical activity in the respondent's skin

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Observation techniques

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Research techniques in which the researcher observes the phenomenon of interest rather than communicate with a person in order to obtain the necessary information

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4 types of observation

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1. Direct versus indirect 2. Overt versus covert 3. Structured versus unstructured 4. In situ versus invented

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Direct versus indirect

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Observing behavior as it occurs vs. observing effects of the behavior (archives and physical trace)

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Overt versus covert

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Observed subjects is unaware (mystery shopping) vs. aware

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Structured versus unstructured

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Observed behaviors are identified beforehand vs. being determined as the observation progresses

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In situ versus invented

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Behavior is observed in its natural setting vs. in a contrived environment

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Appropriate conditions for use of observation

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Short time interval - event must begin and end in a reasonably short time. You cannot "observe" a process of purchasing that lasts months. -Public behavior - cannot observe private behaviors -Faulty recall conditions - behaviors are so "automatic" that consumer cannot recall them

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4 advantages of observational data

answer

1. Insight into actual, not reported, behaviors 2. No chance for recall error 3. Better accuracy 4. Less cost

question

4 limitations of observational data

answer

1. Small number of subjects 2. Subjective interpretations 3. Inability to pry beneath the behavior observed 4. Motivations, attitudes, and other internal conditions are unobserved

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