Macroeconomics Final Exam review (Sheflin) – IMPORTANT CONTENT – Flashcards
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What is opportunity cost and why is there no free lunch?
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Opportunity Cost = Missing out on doing the "next best thing" by choosing to do something else that is "better" There is no free lunch because nothing is ever free. There is an opportunity cost to everything.
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What does the invisible hand mean, and why does it suggest laissez-faire?
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Coined by Adam Smith It means that people maximize self-interest and the market is guided by their self-interest. This leads to regulations not being needed --> Laissez-Faire.
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What is the definition of Microeconomics? Macroeconomics? Economics?
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Micro - What? How? Who? Behaviors of entities and the role of prices & markets Macro - SR vs LR. The overall level of output (GDP), overall level of prices, economic growth, and role of monetary & fiscal policies Economics - Study of scarcity and tool of science to be applied to social issues
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What is the relation between Gross and Net Investment and Depreciation
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Gross Investment does not account for depreciation and is NOT a good indicator of economic growth, while Net Investment is.
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Definition of Real and Nominal GDP
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Real GDP calculates GDP by comparing to a base year, accounting for inflation. Nominal GDP calculates GDP by using the price of that year to evaluate economic productivity of that current year.
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How do you calculate real GDP from nominal?
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Real GDP = Nominal GDP/(GDP Deflator/100)
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How do we measure/calculate Unemployment, Labor Force, Employment
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Surveys. If yes, they are employed. If no, ask if they are seeking a job. If yes to that, they are unemployed. If no, they are not a part of the labor force. Unemployment Rate = (Unemployment/Labor Force) Labor Force = Unemployed + Employed
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What is the CPI? What is it used for?
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Consumer Price Index. Used to show changes in prices of goods/services. Also shows inflation, which tends to be overestimated.
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What are some shortcomings of GDP as measure of economic activity and wellbeing?
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GDP does not account for household productions, leisure, and illegal activities (under-the-table transactions).
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What are stocks?
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Stocks = equity They are shares of a given company Stock Price = (Dividends/Risk Adjusted Discount Rate)
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What is leverage, liquidity, buying on margin, selling short?
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Leverage = Increasing risk and profit by mixing loans and your own money into an investment Liquidity = The access/availability of a liquid asset (cash) to someone or a company. ex.) Asset 1 is very liquid, meaning it can be converted to cash very easily. Buying on Margin = Borrowing money from a broker to buy more shares than you can afford Selling Short = Borrowing a broker's shares to sell (short) and then buying back (covering) to pay back the broker in hopes to keep the difference made. Very risky.
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What is a speculative bubble?
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Rapid increase in price of an asset not justified by economic fundamentals. If the bubble bursts, there will be a sharp fall in value.
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How does stock compare to bonds as an investment?
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Stocks are riskier and have higher returns Bonds are safer and have lower returns
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How and why should you invest in stocks?
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Buy and hold for the LR Stocks yield the highest returns than other financial assets
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What is the advantage of diversification?
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Reduces risk with same return
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What is the efficient markets hypothesis, and how does it relate to random walks?
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Efficient market hypothesis = information is rapidly incorporated into the price of a security --> the price reflects the value. Only new information will change the prices of the securities. Random Walks = prices change unpredictably. No one should try to beat the market. Buy the market instead --> index mutual funds
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What are Mutual Funds?
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A portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds
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What is a stock index mutual fund, and why should you likely use it for long-run investing?
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A portfolio of stocks that reflect the index you are investing in. Ex.) A stock index mutual fund of the NASDAQ will buy stocks of the NASDAQ to reflect the growth of that particular index. You should by it in the LR because it will most likely go up consistently.
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What is Money? Wealth? Income? How are they different?
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Money = It is a medium of exchange (universally accepted). It is also a store of value and a unit of account (Item holds value over time and a consistent means of measuring value) Wealth = The amount of days you are able to survive and the possessions you have Income = Flow of Money
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Define M1. Roughly, what's in M2 that is not in M1?
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M1 = Used in transactions --> currency in circulation, checkable deposits, and traveler's checks M2 = M1 + other deposits and money market mutual funds
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What are the three functions of money?
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- Medium of exchange (universally accepted as a form of payment) - Store of value (holds value over time) - Unit of account (consistent means of measuring value of an item)
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What are the advantages of an economy using money rather than barter?
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Less steps; cuts out "the middle man" Everyone wants money whereas, not everyone wants what you are willing to trade
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What is barter and what are the shortcomings of barter?
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Barter = trading commodities to get what you want. Ex.) Trading blankets for wood Shortcomings = people don't always want what you're willing to give
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What is the Fed? Describe its structure. Why does the Fed have the structure it does (12 banks, etc). What is the FOMC?
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Fed = Central bank; the banker to all banks. - Regulates banks - Controls Ms through monetary policies - Supports stability of the financial system - Independent of Congress FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) - Has 12 banks and 7 members on the Board of Directors to destabilize power
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Explain in words how a Fed open market purchase increases the money supply
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Feds buy bonds, increasing Ms. Bank lends out some of the reserves, increasing M1, increasing Ms.
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What is the central operating target of the Fed?
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fed funds rate
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What is the primary 'traditional' policy tool of the Fed?
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Open market operations --> the buying and selling of bonds, dictating Ms.
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What are the ultimate goals of the Fed?
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Dual Mandate - Price Stability -Maximum employment - (also moderate LR interest rate) All through LR economic growth
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What is the Taylor Rule?
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If inflation and employment rates are too high, increase the interest rate ( i ). Higher interest rate --> Decrease in Ms --> Lower inflation rate --> higher unemployment
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What is the liquidity trap and why does it matter?
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Liquidity trap is when the interest rate cannot go any lower (maybe because it's already at 0). Ms has no affect on decreasing interest rate at this point
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Is the Fed Independent?
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Yes. It is in order to spread the power rather than having the government have so much power
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What is quantitative easing? How did/does it work?
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Banks convincing the public that it will keep interest rates low to avoid deflation. It works if the banks are trusted and have a good reputation.
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What is unconventional monetary policy?
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Quantitative easing and forward guidance
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Why is Fed credibility important?
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Shapes the expectations of inflation in the future which greatly influences the actual inflation rate that transpires
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What determines aggregate prices and output?
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AS & AD
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What determines interest rates?
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Ms (inversely related)
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What are the components of aggregate demand?
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AD = C + I + G + NX C is affected by disposable income (Y-T) I is affected by interest rates ( i ) and Ms G is affected by fiscal policies NX is affected by exports - imports (X-M)
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What are the key determinants of Consumption? Saving? Investment? Government Expenditures? Exports? Imports?
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- C is affected by disposable income (Y-T) - I is affected by interest rates ( i ) and Ms - S is affected by output - consumption (Y-C) - G is affected by fiscal policies - NX is affected by exports - imports (X-M) - Exports and Imports affected by inflation and deflation which depreciates/appreciates the value of the dollar
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How does the stock market affect the economy?
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Wealth Effect --> Makes people think they have more/less money than what they really do causing them to spend more/less than what they should be doing
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What are the 'types' of unemployment?
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- Frictional (time taken to switch jobs) - Structural (lacking the skills/education) - Cyclical (variation in unemployment due to economic movement...excess unemployment past the Natural Rate) - Natural Rate (equilibrium)
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What is inflation and what causes it in the short-run?
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Inflation = the general increase in prices of goods/services It's caused by an increase in Ms (monetary policies)
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What is the short-run Phillips curve and why is it important?
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It shows inflation and unemployment being inversely related. It's important as it show what monetary policies to follow as Ms affects inflation which affects unemployment.
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What causes business cycles, and what are they?
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- Changes in demand - Bad monetary policies - New technology - Demand and supply shocks/pushes They are reoccurring, but irregular ups & downs in economic activity
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How does monetary policy impact the economy in the short-run?
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Monetary policy affects Ms. Ms up -> i down -> I up -> D up -> P, Y up Ms down -> i up -> I down -> D down -> P, Y down
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How does fiscal policy impact the economy?
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G up -> D up -> P, Y up & vice versa
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What is the impact of a government budget deficit in the SR?
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Gov budget deficit = Expenditures > Revenue, thus forcing the Gov to sell bonds. Selling bonds -> Ms down -> deflation -> dollar appreciates -> more imports, less exports -> D down Selling bonds also causes interest rates to go up and Investment down
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What is the paradox of thrift?
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People tend to save more in a recession, causing less income, causing less total savings (spiral effect). S up -> C down -> AD down -> Y down -> S down
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What is the wealth effect?
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When people think they have more money than what they really do due to the stock market, causing them to spend more
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What is the effect of an increase in saving in the short run?
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S up -> C down -> AD down -> Y down -> S down
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What is the effect of an increase in investment in the short-run?
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I up -> D up -> Y up
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What determines output?
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Capital, Labor, & Technology (K, L, tech)
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What determines prices?
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Ms (Quantity Theory --> Ms*V=P*Y where V is constant --> Ms=P*Y)
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What determines interest rates?
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LR: Savings & Investments (S, I) = interest rate Loanable Funds Theory And Ms SR: Supply and Demand shocks
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What is loanable funds theory?
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Savings and Investments determines LR interest rate Desired S=I
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What is Say's law?
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Supply creates demand
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What is the quantity theory?
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Ms*V=P*Y where V is constant
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What is the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU)?
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- Lowest rate of unemployment in the LR - Inflation is at 0 and is constant - Structural and frictional unemployment only - LR Phillips curve is vertical at NAIRU
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What is the relation between the nominal and real interest rates and inflation?
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Fisher's Equation Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate - Inflation
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What causes inflation in the long-run?
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Rapid Ms growth
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What role does saving play in the long-run?
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allows for increased investment
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What role does investment play in the long-run?
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Increases economic growth
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What causes unemployment in the long-run?
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Natural Rate of Unemployment - Frictional - Structural
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What is crowding out?
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When fiscal policies have no effect in the LR When G up -> i up -> I down -> crowding out
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How does fiscal policy affect the economy in the long-run?
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It doesn't. It is crowded-out
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How does monetary policy affect the economy in the long-run?
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It only affects price
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What is the long-run Phillips curve and what does it imply? What makes the short-run curve shift to the right?
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- LR Phillip's Curve is vertical - This implies that inflation and unemployment and inflation are independent of each other - SR curve only increases with an increase in labor force
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What role do inflationary expectations play in inflation and the Phillips curve?
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Expectations in inflation causes the expectations to come true. Ex.) Expecting an increase in inflation will increase inflation, causing less unemployment to occur in SR, but has no affect on unemployment in LR
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What is the long-run average rate of growth in U.S. real GDP? Real GDP per capita?
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3% for US Real GDP Growth Rate 2% for Real GDP per capita
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What is productivity? Why does it matter to economic growth?
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- Productivity = Output per worker (Y/L) - Real GDP = Productivity*Labor Y = (Y/L)*L
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What is the role of technology in economic growth?
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Technology helps economic growth as it increases productivity leading to an increase in GDP
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What is the rule of 72? (Or 70)? How do you use it?
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Number of years to double = (72/Growth Rate)
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How does an increase in saving affect the economy in the long run? (short-run?)
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LR = S up -> I up -> Productivity up -> Economy up SR = S up -> C down -> D down -> Y down -> Economy down
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Creative Destruction
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Something new replacing something old (Schumpeter)
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What's wrong with Malthus' law?
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Population grows geometrically while food grows arithmetically (Population grows too fast) It ignores increases in capital, technology changes, and population control
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What is capital? Human capital
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Capital = wealth in form of money & assets Human capital = the value of skills, knowledge, and intelligence an individual possesses
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What role does capital play in the macroeconomics in the SR? LR?
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SR = More capital allows for an increased in Investment = higher AD -> P, Y up LR = More capital leads to higher productivity -> economic growth
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What affects the present value of a future amount?
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interest rate and amount of years away from the future amount PV = (FV/[(1+i)^n])
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How does an increase in capital affect labor?
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Reduces employment in an industry as it increases marginal product of labor
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Define inflation
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The general increase in prices which depreciates the value of a given currency
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How do we measure inflation?
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Using CPI (consumer price index)
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What can cause inflation in the short-run?
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Demand and supply shocks
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What can cause inflation in the long-run?
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Increase in Ms
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What harm does anticipated inflation cause?
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Menu and shoe leather cost Menu cost = The cost it takes to constantly change prices Shoe leather cost = The time and effort to counteract inflation
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What harm does unanticipated inflation cause?
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- Causes wealth to transfer from lenders to borrows & distorts the price system - Can also cause increases in taxes while real income doesn't change
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What is deflation and what harm does it cause?
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A general decline in prices of goods/services, causing a given currency to appreciate. This is bad because a strong currency increases imports, but decreases exports. When M>X, there becomes a current account deficit/financial account surplus, which is bad.
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Which is considered more dangerous, inflation or deflation?
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Both inflation and deflation can be bad - Hyperinflation can cause a loss in confidence in a currency as it's worthless (ex. Zimbabwe) - Extreme deflation can cause a depression -> not enough demand My opinion) Deflation is worse because at least you can recover from hyperinflation whereas in an extreme form of deflation, you can't.
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What's the short-run Phillip's curve? What policy does it imply?
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Inflation and Unemployment are inversely related It implies Monetary policies as Ms controls inflation which controls the unemployment rate
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What's the long-run Phillip's curve? What's the implication of the slope of the long-run Phillip's curve.
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It is vertical. It implies that inflation and unemployment are independent of each other. Only an increase in the labor force can shift the curve.
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What's the relation between Fed credibility and inflation? Between inflation expectations and inflation? Between unemployment and inflation?
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- More Fed credibility -> I up -> inflation down - Inflation expectations causes the expected inflation rate to occur - Unemployment and inflation are inversely related
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What does it take to be counted as unemployed?
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Not employed and actively seeking for a job
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How do we define the unemployment rate? The Labor Force participation rate?
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Unemployment Rate = (Unemployed/Labor Force) - Labor Force = Unemployed + Employed Labor Force participation rate = (Labor Force/Population)
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Define the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Why does it matter?
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NAIRU = lowest rate of unemployment in LR because inflation is constant & at 0
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What's the relation between wages, prices and productivity?
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W/P=MP or W=PxMP and %change W = % change P + % change MP
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According to marginal productivity theory, what is a key determinant of the real wage?
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Real Wage = W/P in LR
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What are some benefits of international trade? Some of its harms?
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Benefits = Competition, transmission of ideas, comparative advantage, & economies of scale Disadvantages = If imports > exports -> possible current account deficit/financial account surplus may happen
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What is the basic idea of comparative advantage?
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Countries specializing in producing goods/services they are best at (lowest opportunity cost) and trading it to get the rest of what they want. Both countries will get more of both goods/services as opposed to doing it themselves. Ex.) US is good at producing steel and China is good at producing silk. They maximize production and trade for the other country's goods. Now, both countries have the most of both goods they can possibly have.
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How do exports and imports affect the macroeconomics?
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Export > Import -> Current account surplus/financial account deficit = good Exports Current account deficit/financial account surplus = bad -> selling of bonds occur -> Ms down -> i up -> I down -> D down -> Output down
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What impact does an open economy have on the effectiveness of monetary policy? On fiscal policy?
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Monetary Policy -> strengthens economy Ms up -> i down -> Value of dollar depreciates -> X up & M down -> D up -> stronger economy Fiscal Policy -> weakens economy G up -> i up -> Value of dollar appreciates -> X down & M up -> D down -> weaker economy
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What are the determinants of exchange rates in the short-run? In the long-run?
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SR -> Supply & Demand LR -> Law of One Price (identical goods will be priced the same after exchange rates)
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What is purchasing power parity theory?
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PPP is when exchange rates adjust in the LR to equalize prices. Determines major exchange rates in LR.
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Why do we have a current account deficit, and what does it imply?
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Because M > X It implies that the country has a strong currency and can import a lot, but cannot export as much as their goods/services are too expensive for other countries
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Why do we have a current account deficit, and what does it imply?
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Because M Because M > X It implies that the country has a strong currency and can import a lot, but cannot export as much as their goods/services are too expensive for other countries
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What are the advantages of floating exchange rates? Fixed exchange rates?
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Floating/Flexible Advantages - Shock absorber -> currency depreciation to adjust to weaker economy - Greater insulation from other country's problems Fixed Advantages - More certainty - Better for international trade
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The 'tri-lemma'? Twin deficit?
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Only 2 of the 3 can be achieved: - fixed exchange rates - capital mobility - monetary policy control Gov budget deficit may lead to current account deficit
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How does a strong currency affect the domestic economy?
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It causes imports to increase, while exports decrease causing a current account deficit/financial account surplus (bad). It doesn't always cause a domestic economy to go down if people in the country still purchase domestic goods at the same rate rather than switching to foreign goods.
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Classical Economics
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- Say's Law - Supply creates demand - Focuses on LR supply - Economy self-adjusting - Ms only affects price and inflation - interest rate determined by S and I
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Keynesian Economics
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- Focuses on SR - Focuses on AD - Economy is NOT self-adjusting; periods of recession & unemployment - Use of fiscal policy to increase AD to get through recessions - Ms ultimately affects D as it affects i and I
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Supply side Economics
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Believed in tax cuts to affect supply More production shifts supply curve out to create an expansionary effect
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Monetarism
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- Milton Friedman - SR = Based on an idea of Ms affecting AD and ultimately affecting output and recessions - LR = Essentially classical
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Rational Expectations
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People make optimal economic forecasts leading to a classical outcome
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What is a government budget deficit? The national debt?
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Gov budget deficit is when Expenditures > Revenue National debt is the money a country owes due to borrowing from other countries
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What harm do Long-run Government Budget Deficits cause?
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Crowding out of possibly more productive private sector investments
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What is meant by Trickle-down economics
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Helping the rich get richer so they spend more so the poor can benefit too, in theory Rich get fat, poor get bread crumbs
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What are government entitlement programs and what LR issues do they raise?
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Programs from the government - Medicare (health insurance for seniors. Contribute through working years and draw in during retirement) - Medicaid (health insurance for low income) - Social Security (social insurance and benefits) - CHIPS (health coverage for low income children) - SNAP (food stamps) LR issue = crowding out as there will be a reduction in economic growth as there will be less people replacing the baby boomers
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What is the largest source of federal government revenue? Largest spending item?
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Taxes (income tax and payroll tax) Social Security and Unemployment & Labor
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What's A Speculative Asset Bubble?
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When the price of an asset goes up really fast and is not justified by economic fundamentals
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What were Tulip Mania, the South Seas Bubble, U.S. Banking Panics, the Dot com bubble, the 21st century housing bubble?
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They were all speculative asset bubbles
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leverage (define and how was it a factor in a crisis)
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Using own money mixed with loans to increase profits which increases risk too Performed in the housing market bubble as everyone thought prices would constantly rise
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securitization (define and how was it a factor in a crisis)
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Converting non-tradable assets into tradable ones (mortgages -> bonds). Ex.) Mortgage backed securities were popular, but loans were given to sub-prime credit holders
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Derivatives
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financial assets whose values derive from another...such as mortgage backed securities
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Shadow Banking
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When intermediaries are less regulated, therefore they can leverage more -> increasing risks of losses Ex.) too big to fail
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What monetary policy actions were taken to deal with the crisis of the 2008 recession?
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- Provided liquidity (discount rate and fed fund rate almost to 0) - Provided finance and capital - Expanded Ms and did Quantitative Easing
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What fiscal policy actions were taken to deal with the crisis of the 2008 recession?
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Federal government spending and tax policies to stabilize the economy
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What were some of the major consequences of the 2008 crisis?
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The economy would have contracted for more than 3 years, almost twice as long as it did Unemployment would have been 16% instead of 10% Economy would be much worse if no fiscal or monetary policies were implemented.
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What is Dodd-Frank? The Volcker Rule?
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Dodd-Frank = Created after 2008 recession to regulate banks. Created FSOC Volcker Rule = Part of Dodd-Frank & states that financial banks cannot make certain speculative investments on behalf of their clients.
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What caused the great depression? The 2007-09 recession?
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Great Depression = caused by bank failures and stock market crash of 1929 2008 Recession = Housing Bubble bursts; loans were given out to subprime credit holders.
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Who was Adam Smith? Milton Friedman? Malthus? Schumpeter? Keynes?
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Adam Smith: created the invisible hand; advocated for Laisse Faire Milton Friedman: Created Monetarism; believed economy was driven by Ms Malthus: Believed population grows faster than food (Malthus Law); Also, fixed resources leads to a decline in GDP per capita, no growth (Malthusian) Schumpeter: Talked about creative destruction (something new always replaces something old) Keynes: Father of Macro, focuses on SR and demand side, and advocate for fiscal policies