Discussion Questions: IQ. Assume that you are making a prediction from the time e-books first became available (year 2000). Although early unit sales data for e-books are available, construct your forecast irrespective of these sales? The likelihood of purchase by a new adopter at time period t is p+(q/m)NT-l //using bass model where the diffusion patterns are a function of size of market, rate of adoption by innovators and imitators ND proportion of adopters in previous time period.
Where, p is the likelihood that an innovator will adopt = 008 //using cellular telephone q is the likelihood that an imitator will adopt = . 421 //using cellular telephone m is the total number of adopters that will never be exceeded = 467*293. 7 mill = 137. 15 mill // r
...eading population NT-l is the cumulative number of adopters of the product through the previous time period. O //sales irrespective of previous sales 1/1 chose cellular data because it is mobile and used for reading messages at least In this case the childhood of purchase by a new adopter at time period t is: The number of new adopters during the time period t, - NT-l)] -0. 008 * 137. 1 smile = 1. 097 mill customers
Q. What do you expect the long-run total adoption of e-books to be? I think long run total adoption of e-books to be slowing of market growth like seen on the adoption S- curve. I think if you can pin point the moment of rate of growth began to slow, you can pretty much double the market share number to see where it will end up.
Q. D
you expect the market for e-books to be guided more by imitators or innovators? Why? I think in technology like e-books, the market is guided by innovators and then grown by imitators. The cutting edge innovators first create the product in order for the innovators to make it affordable and bring it to mass production. At the right time the imitators enter the market and bring in the volume of product and customers.
Q. Once you have modeled the first-time adoption of e-books, create a 5-year annual recast of the overall demand for e-books. To create a 5 year annual forecast of the overall demand for e-books I would suggest using the ten step Delphi technique which involves picking a facilitator, identifying expert group, creating list of criteria, having experts rank the criteria, estimating the mean and standard deviation, having panel re-rank the newly ordered criteria, identifying preferences and constraints, having the panel rank alternatives by constraints and preferences, analyzing results ND returning them to panel, then repeating the ranking process until you achieve stability on the rankings.
Q. What role will hardware devices play in the adoption of e-books? Hardware devices play an important role in the widespread adoption of e-books. They are also the medium through which e-books can be marketed to masses. At the same time, makers of dedicated reading devices realize that e-books are more likely to flourish if widely available throughout the emerging mobile web unbundled from dedicated hardware devices.
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