CON 270 Test 1 Notes

profit / fee
minimum and maximum
contract type
How do Contracting Specialist use statistics?
1. Developing __________ objectives
2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis
3. Developing _______ and _______ price
4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision

Central Tendency
_______ _________ is the central value around which data observations tend to cluster.

__________ is the closeness of the clustering or variation within the data set.

Average in central tendency is the ____.

Middle in central tendency is the ______.

The ____ is most frequent but not necessarily the “majority”.

Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation
Four measures of Dispersion
are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.

CV (Coefficient of Variation)
When asked about Relative accuracy, use __.

More dispersion (variability) equals greater ____.

________ is the average squared estimating error.

Standard Deviation
________ _________ is the average estimating error.

Coefficient of Variation (CV)
___________ __ _________ is the average % estimating error

A skew of 0 is ________ distributed.

A skew that is positive is _____ skewed.

A skew that is negative is _____ skewed.

________ kurtosis is flat.

________ kurtosis has a peak.

A kurtosis of 0 is ________ distributed.

The skewness in the data tends to effect the ____ more than the ______.

When data is skewed, the ______ is more representative of the data.

min and max
With __% confidence the Population ____ will fall between the ___ and ___.

________ deals with dispersion.

When an observation departs significantly from the center of the data it is typically referred to as an “_______”.

standard deviation
An outlier is greater than + or – 2 times the ________ _________.

Confidence interval
A __________ _________ is a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range.

Confidence intervals allow us to make a probability statement about the __________ mean

stratified sampling
__________ ________ is when you have a large bill of material to be evaluated, there is a statistical technique recommended that saves time and, therefore, money.

Cost Estimating Relationship
____ __________ ____________ is a Base/Pool relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable.

reasonable estimates
Cost Estimating Relationships permit __________ _________ without generating excessive amounts of data

Cost/Non-Cost (Product)
____ / ____ and ____ / ___-____ are two types of Cost Estimating Relationships.

Independent = Base = Direct = X
These Variables
Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y

Pool / Base
Calculate Dependent and Independent Variables with ____ / ____.

independent variable
In a Cost / No Cost situation, the no cost aspect will be your ____________ ________ which is the Base.

Moving Averages
______ ________ is a quantitative technique used for contract cost and pricing that uses an average of past observations to estimate and analyze estimates.

______ and ______ are the two types of moving averages?

Single Moving Averages
______ ______ ________ are used when there IS NO time-series data trend.

Double Moving Averages
______ ______ ________ are used when there IS a time-series trend in the data

existence and accuracy
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
3. Is the CER used ____________?

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
4. How _______ is the CER?

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?

detailed estimate or direct comparison
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?

__________ analysis is a statistical technique that attempts to explore and model the relationship between two or more variables.

Yc = A + BX
Linear Equation

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
________ __ ________ is how well the regression equation fits the data.

Probability Not Zero
___________ ___ ____ tells you how Confident you are that a relationship exists between
X & Y

Probability Not Zero
___________ ___ ____ needs to be as close to 100% as possible

Probability Not Zero
If ___________ ___ ____ is lower, consider using a factor

__ tells you the strength of the relationship between two variables

__ is variation in Y is caused by X

__ is the % of Explained Variation

r2 (Coefficient of Determination)
Probability Not Zero
__ and ___________ ___ ____ are 2 Statistics used to measure
“Goodness of Fit”

SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate)
___ is the average or typical estimating error where the unit of measure is in dollars or hours.

When dealing with SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate), the lower the number the better

The ____ is defined by the height of the curve.

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