CON 270 Test 1 Notes

Government
profit / fee
minimum and maximum
contract type
How do Contracting Specialist use statistics?
1. Developing __________ objectives
2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis
3. Developing _______ and _______ price
4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision
Central Tendency
_______ _________ is the central value around which data observations tend to cluster.
Dispersion
__________ is the closeness of the clustering or variation within the data set.
Mean
Average in central tendency is the ____.
Median
Middle in central tendency is the ______.
Mode
The ____ is most frequent but not necessarily the “majority”.
Range
Variance
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation
Four measures of Dispersion
are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.
CV (Coefficient of Variation)
When asked about Relative accuracy, use __.
risk
More dispersion (variability) equals greater ____.
Variance
________ is the average squared estimating error.
Standard Deviation
________ _________ is the average estimating error.
Coefficient of Variation (CV)
___________ __ _________ is the average % estimating error
normally
A skew of 0 is ________ distributed.
right
A skew that is positive is _____ skewed.
left
A skew that is negative is _____ skewed.
Negative
________ kurtosis is flat.
Positive
________ kurtosis has a peak.
normally
A kurtosis of 0 is ________ distributed.
mean
median
The skewness in the data tends to effect the ____ more than the ______.
median
When data is skewed, the ______ is more representative of the data.
90
Mean
min and max
With __% confidence the Population ____ will fall between the ___ and ___.
Accuracy
________ deals with dispersion.
outlier
When an observation departs significantly from the center of the data it is typically referred to as an “_______”.
standard deviation
An outlier is greater than + or – 2 times the ________ _________.
Confidence interval
A __________ _________ is a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range.
population
Confidence intervals allow us to make a probability statement about the __________ mean
stratified sampling
__________ ________ is when you have a large bill of material to be evaluated, there is a statistical technique recommended that saves time and, therefore, money.
Cost Estimating Relationship
____ __________ ____________ is a Base/Pool relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable.
reasonable estimates
Cost Estimating Relationships permit __________ _________ without generating excessive amounts of data
Cost/Cost
Cost/Non-Cost (Product)
____ / ____ and ____ / ___-____ are two types of Cost Estimating Relationships.
Independent = Base = Direct = X
These Variables
Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y
drive
Pool / Base
Calculate Dependent and Independent Variables with ____ / ____.
independent variable
In a Cost / No Cost situation, the no cost aspect will be your ____________ ________ which is the Base.
Moving Averages
______ ________ is a quantitative technique used for contract cost and pricing that uses an average of past observations to estimate and analyze estimates.
Single
Double
______ and ______ are the two types of moving averages?
Single Moving Averages
______ ______ ________ are used when there IS NO time-series data trend.
Double Moving Averages
______ ______ ________ are used when there IS a time-series trend in the data
existence and accuracy
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?
trend
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?
consistently
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
3. Is the CER used ____________?
current
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
4. How _______ is the CER?
independent
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?
self-fulfilling
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?
detailed estimate or direct comparison
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?
7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?
Regression
__________ analysis is a statistical technique that attempts to explore and model the relationship between two or more variables.
Yc = A + BX
Linear Equation
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
________ __ ________ is how well the regression equation fits the data.
Probability Not Zero
___________ ___ ____ tells you how Confident you are that a relationship exists between
X & Y
Probability Not Zero
___________ ___ ____ needs to be as close to 100% as possible
Probability Not Zero
If ___________ ___ ____ is lower, consider using a factor
r2
__ tells you the strength of the relationship between two variables
r2
__ is variation in Y is caused by X
r2
__ is the % of Explained Variation
r2 (Coefficient of Determination)
Probability Not Zero
__ and ___________ ___ ____ are 2 Statistics used to measure
“Goodness of Fit”
SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate)
___ is the average or typical estimating error where the unit of measure is in dollars or hours.
True
When dealing with SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate), the lower the number the better
(True/False)
mean
The ____ is defined by the height of the curve.