Government

profit / fee

minimum and maximum

contract type

profit / fee

minimum and maximum

contract type

How do Contracting Specialist use statistics?

1. Developing __________ objectives

2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis

3. Developing _______ and _______ price

4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision

1. Developing __________ objectives

2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis

3. Developing _______ and _______ price

4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision

Central Tendency

_______ _________ is the central value around which data observations tend to cluster.

Dispersion

__________ is the closeness of the clustering or variation within the data set.

Mean

Average in central tendency is the ____.

Median

Middle in central tendency is the ______.

Mode

The ____ is most frequent but not necessarily the “majority”.

Range

Variance

Standard Deviation

Coefficient of Variation

Variance

Standard Deviation

Coefficient of Variation

Four measures of Dispersion

are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.

are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.

CV (Coefficient of Variation)

When asked about Relative accuracy, use __.

risk

More dispersion (variability) equals greater ____.

Variance

________ is the average squared estimating error.

Standard Deviation

________ _________ is the average estimating error.

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

___________ __ _________ is the average % estimating error

normally

A skew of 0 is ________ distributed.

right

A skew that is positive is _____ skewed.

left

A skew that is negative is _____ skewed.

Negative

________ kurtosis is flat.

Positive

________ kurtosis has a peak.

normally

A kurtosis of 0 is ________ distributed.

mean

median

median

The skewness in the data tends to effect the ____ more than the ______.

median

When data is skewed, the ______ is more representative of the data.

90

Mean

min and max

Mean

min and max

With __% confidence the Population ____ will fall between the ___ and ___.

Accuracy

________ deals with dispersion.

outlier

When an observation departs significantly from the center of the data it is typically referred to as an “_______”.

standard deviation

An outlier is greater than + or – 2 times the ________ _________.

Confidence interval

A __________ _________ is a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range.

population

Confidence intervals allow us to make a probability statement about the __________ mean

stratified sampling

__________ ________ is when you have a large bill of material to be evaluated, there is a statistical technique recommended that saves time and, therefore, money.

Cost Estimating Relationship

____ __________ ____________ is a Base/Pool relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable.

reasonable estimates

Cost Estimating Relationships permit __________ _________ without generating excessive amounts of data

Cost/Cost

Cost/Non-Cost (Product)

Cost/Non-Cost (Product)

____ / ____ and ____ / ___-____ are two types of Cost Estimating Relationships.

Independent = Base = Direct = X

These Variables

Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y

drive

Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y

drive

Pool / Base

Calculate Dependent and Independent Variables with ____ / ____.

independent variable

In a Cost / No Cost situation, the no cost aspect will be your ____________ ________ which is the Base.

Moving Averages

______ ________ is a quantitative technique used for contract cost and pricing that uses an average of past observations to estimate and analyze estimates.

Single

Double

Double

______ and ______ are the two types of moving averages?

Single Moving Averages

______ ______ ________ are used when there IS NO time-series data trend.

Double Moving Averages

______ ______ ________ are used when there IS a time-series trend in the data

existence and accuracy

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?

1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?

trend

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?

2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?

consistently

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

3. Is the CER used ____________?

3. Is the CER used ____________?

current

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

4. How _______ is the CER?

4. How _______ is the CER?

independent

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?

5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?

self-fulfilling

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?

6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?

detailed estimate or direct comparison

What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns?

7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?

7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?

Regression

__________ analysis is a statistical technique that attempts to explore and model the relationship between two or more variables.

Yc = A + BX

Linear Equation

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

________ __ ________ is how well the regression equation fits the data.

Probability Not Zero

___________ ___ ____ tells you how Confident you are that a relationship exists between

X & Y

X & Y

Probability Not Zero

___________ ___ ____ needs to be as close to 100% as possible

Probability Not Zero

If ___________ ___ ____ is lower, consider using a factor

r2

__ tells you the strength of the relationship between two variables

r2

__ is variation in Y is caused by X

r2

__ is the % of Explained Variation

r2 (Coefficient of Determination)

Probability Not Zero

Probability Not Zero

__ and ___________ ___ ____ are 2 Statistics used to measure

“Goodness of Fit”

“Goodness of Fit”

SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate)

___ is the average or typical estimating error where the unit of measure is in dollars or hours.

True

When dealing with SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate), the lower the number the better

(True/False)

(True/False)

mean

The ____ is defined by the height of the curve.