Chapter 4 SCM – Flashcards
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What two numbers are contained in the daily report to the CEO of Walt Disney Parks & Resorts regarding the six Orlando Parks?
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Yesterday's forecasted attendance and yesterday's actual attendance
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As compared to long-range forecasts, short-range forecasts
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Deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions
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One use of short-range forecasts is to determine
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Job Assignments
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The three major types of forecasts used by organizations in planning future operations are:
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Economic, technological, and demand
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Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting
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Capital Expenditure
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What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?
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CPFR
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Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?
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Eliminate any assumptions
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The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast (T/F)
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TRUE
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Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents
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Delphi method
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The forecasting technique that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as:
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Jury of executive opinion
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Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures, which are related to product demand, to predict demand?
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Associative models
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A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the forecast for August (T/F)
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FALSE
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A naive forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales for August (T/F)
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TRUE
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One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved (T/F)
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TRUE
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The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method, the greater the method's responsiveness to changes in demand (T/F)
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FALSE
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Mean squared error and exponential smoothing are two measures of the overall error of a forecasting model (T/F)
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FALSE
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Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?
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Trend, random variations, seasonality, cycles, All of the above
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Gradual upward or downward movement of data over time is called
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A trend
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Which of the following is not present in a time series
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Operational Vaiations
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The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the
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duration of the repeating patterns
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Which of the following statements comparing exponential smoothing to the weighted moving average technique is TRUE
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Exponential smoothing typically requires less record keeping of past data
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Which time series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?
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Exponential smoothing
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Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of exponential smoothing?
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Weights each historical value equally
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A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a
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Exponential smoothing forecast
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Yamaha manufactures which set of products with complementary demands to address seasonal variations?
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Jet skis and snowmobiles
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Which of the following is TRUE regarding the two smoothing constants of the Forecast Including Trend (FIT) model?
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their values are determined independently
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______ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values
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MAPE
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If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he notices a detectable trend in the historical data, he should:
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Use weights to place more emphasis on recent data
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In a regression equation where y-hat is demand and x is advertising, a coefficient of determination (R^2) of .7 means that 70% of the variance in advertising is explained by demand (T/F)
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FALSE
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Regression lines graphically depict "cause-and-effect" relationships (T/F)
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FALSE
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A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that:
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In trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not to be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power
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Regression lines graphically depict "cause-and-effect" relationships (T/F)
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FALSE
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The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the
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coefficient of correlation
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If two variables were perfectly correlated, what would the coefficient of correlation r equal
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-1 or 1
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If a forecast is consistently greater than actual values, the forecast is said to be biased (T/F)
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True
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The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, 90 units. The last four forecasts were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate
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Bias
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The tracking signal is the
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ratio of cumulative error/MAD
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Computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes a present limit is characteristic of:
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Adaptive smoothing
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Many services maintain records of sales noting:
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All of the above (the day of the week, unusual events, the weather, holiday impacts)
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Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using
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Point of sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals
A six-week moving average forecasting technique