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Presidential Elections

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Every 4 years, on a fixed date Begins with primaries and caucuses, close to a year before the election Nominating conventions in summer Unofficial presidential campaign begins on Labor Day According to the Constitution, the Electoral College elects the president Popular votes are cast for \"electors;\" all states except Maine and Nebraska award all its electoral votes to statewide popular vote winner Winner must capture absolute majority (50% + 1) of Electoral College votes If no one captures an absolute majority of electoral college, President is selected by House of Representatives; Vice-President is selected by Senate

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When does campaigning for presidential election start?

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YEARS before the official start of the election season (January of election year - this is when caucuses and primaries begin)

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What happens if nobody wins the majority of the electoral college?

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House chooses President, Senate chooses VP. If House is deadlocked, VP is president until decision is made

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House Of Representatives

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Single-member districts in the House of Representatives; 435 districts in the U.S. -> elections every 2 years

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Senate

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100 Senators, 2 elected from each state -> every 6 years

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What applies to all elections except the electoral college?

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Simple majority (plurality) and single ballot (AKA first-past-the-post)

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Single-member district definition

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Geographic units that elect only one person to represent the entire unit

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Run-offs

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Run-offs are only used in primaries (Louisiana, California)

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Non-partisan primary

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All on one ballot; if someone wins the absolute majority they win and if not, top 2 candidates are voted on in November

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Semi-closed primary

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Election for the party's nominee in which party registrants and those unaffiliated with any party are allowed to vote

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What distinguishes the U.S. from parliamentary systems?

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Separation of powers

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Parliamentary System

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Country is divided into a number of constituencies (like elections to the U.S. House of Representatives) The party that forms the government is usually the one that wins the most constituencies The Prime Minister is the head of government and is leader of the party that wins the election The Prime Minister and members of the Cabinet are elected members of the legislature; they each represent a district Fusion of powers (compared to separation of powers in the U.S.)

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Canadian Parliament

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- If PM loses a vote in Parliaments, reelections are held/gov't falls - If there is no majority party, a coalition must be formed for the plurality party to stay in power - A party can govern for 5 yrs before election must be held - PM can call for new election whenever, so they try to call for elections when their party is particularly popular

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How are Prime Ministers/Presidents selected in a Parliamentary system?

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Selected from members of the majority party in Parliament.

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Proportional Representation definition

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System in which seats are allocated based on the percentage of the vote won by each party

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Proportional Representation

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No constituencies or constituency-based representatives If a party wins X% of the popular vote, it is awarded X% of the seats in the legislature Minimum threshold required to receive any seats Parties choose slates of candidates Can lead to proliferation parties in legislature and to government instability

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Duverger's Law definition

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Single-member, simple plurality election systems tend to produce two major political parties

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Duverger's Law

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In a system with single-member districts and plurality voting, there is a strong tendency for only two parties to emerge, and candidates not affiliated with either of those parties face serious obstacles. This is because in an election with more than two candidates, voters in a plurality system often engage in strategic voting-voting for a candidate who is not their first choice but has a better chance of winning.

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Israeli Parliament (Knesset)

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-Pure representation of people's votes b/c entire country is treated as one district. - Very difficult to pass legislation, nobody ever wins majority - Knesset passes all laws, elects President and Prime Minister

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Why is the U.S. unique?

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- Separation of executive & legislative w/ single district simple majority. - No federal term limits except for President

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Ways to look at Voter Turnout

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1) #voters / registered voters (problem = many states don't keep record of registered voter #s) 2) #voters / eligible voters (VEP) (# comes from census) 3) #voters / people of voting age (VAP) (# comes from census)

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Why does the U.S. have one of the lowest turnout rates in the world?

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1) Difficult voter registration 2) Long campaigns don't stimulate voter interest 3) Only 1/2 of gov't is elected every 2 yrs (harder to feel impact) 4) Election day is not a nat'l holiday

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Expansion of Suffrage

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1. white male property owners (1789 by Constitution) 2. removal of property qualifications (1850) 3. all adult men (15th Amendment; 1870) (race) 4. all adult men and women (19th Amendment; 1920) (gender) 5. all men and women over 18 (26th Amendment, 1971) (age)

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Expansion of Suffrage continued

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- 1904 VA enacted poll taxes - South had restricting voter laws (ex. white-only primaries, grandfather clause, poll taxes, literacy tests, etc.) - 1964 poll tax outlawed - 1992 Clinton signed bill allowing people to register at any gov't office (welfare, etc.)

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Benefits of Voting

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1) Instrumental 2) Expressive (civic duty) 3) Intrinsic (personal satisfaction) VOTING = LOW BENEFIT ACTIVITY, THEREFORE TURNOUT IS LOW

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Costs of Voting

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1) Registration system --> the earlier the registration deadline, the lower turnout is 2) Election Day --> on a workday 3) Electoral System 4) Bicameral Legislature 5) American political parties --> 2 party system, don't mobilize voters

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Costs of Voting continued

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6) Frequency of elections --> U.S. has a lot of elections, which decreases significance 7) Stakes involved --> Boring elections, personality of candidates influence vote, low stakes for irrelevant issues COSTS ABSOLVE VOTERS FOR NOT VOTING COSTS OUTWEIGH BENEFITS

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Individual-level factors associated with voting

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- education (higher edu, more likely to vote) - age (older more likely to vote) - marital status (married more likely to vote) - union membership - frequency of religious worship (more religion, higher turnout) - strength of party ID - interests in politics/campaigns - care about outcome - efficacy

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Are changes in registration related to turnout?

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NO - registration has become easier

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Correlation between education and turnout?

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Not obvious; although higher education = high turnout, over the past 50 yrs education has increased but turnout has dropped.

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Changes in Oregon voting

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All ballots are mail-in, voters receive them 2 weeks before election day and can drop them off at locations or mail back in.

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Who is most likely to vote for a third party candidate?

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Young people!

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Why has turnout dropped?

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- Decline in social connectedness (marriage, religious groups, etc.) - Decline in political connectedness (party mobilization, partisan ID) - Declining interest in politics (esp. among youth) - Negative campaigning - Growing cynicism, weaker efficacy

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How do you increase turnout in the U.S.?

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- Electoral reform - Make election day a national holiday - Ease registration rules - Change nature of media coverage - More civic education - Mandatory voting

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Examples of years of high turnout

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1992 --> 1st campaign that MTV was involved in; baby boomer ticket 2004 --> '00 election emphasized importance of each vote (FL), war causes higher turnout

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Pros v. cons of mandatory voting

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Pros: greater gov't legitimacy, educational effect, better use of resources by parties/candidates, candidates must consider interests of all, higher turnout Cons: Inconsistent w/ freedom, may not enhance education

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Models of Voting Behavior

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1) Social forces and the vote 2) Party ID 3) Issue Voting 4) Candidate-centered voting (Obama strategy) 5) Retrospective voting (Romney strategy)

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Social Forces and the Vote as voting behavior

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1) Social forces and the vote 2) Party ID 3) Issue Voting 4) Candidate-centered voting (Obama strategy) 5) Retrospective voting (Romney strategy)

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Party ID as voting behavior

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- people are loyal to parties b/c they are always present (unlike individual candidates) and it makes voting simpler - most stable aspect of political attachment - similar psychological attachment to religious affiliation - \"funnel of causality\" = how people get party ID and how it influences vote (The American Voter) - party ID measured from strong D - strong R, 7 points of ID

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Issue Voting as voting behavior

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- voter must have opinion, know where candidates stand and their differences, and perception must be correct

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Candidate-centered Voting as voting behavior

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became very important in '92 with Clinton

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Retrospective Voting as voting behavior

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- applies primarily to handing of economy and foreign policy by incumbents - Retrospective economic voting = 2 forms 1) Pocketbook voting - Do you personally have more $? 2) Sociotropic voting - Does nation have more $? - Power of S. Voting = abundance of info on nat'l economic indicators, ethic of self-reliance

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The American Voter (1960)

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Identified American voters as uninformed, uninterested. Created categorization of American electorate into: 1) Ideologues = 10% (informed about issues) 2) Group benefits = 40% 3) Nature of the times = 25% 4) No issue content = 25%

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Cross-cutting issue

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An issue that raises disagreement within a party that threatens major party realignment. Historically in U.S., every 32-36 yrs, voters switch to the other \"side\" or create another \"side\" b/c of strong disagreements over the cross-cutting issue.

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Reapportionment definition

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Process of determining the number of representatives allotted to each state after the decennial census count

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Redistricting definition

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Drawing new district lines after the decennial census count

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Malapportionment definition

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Any significant differences in the number of citizens across districts

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Gerrymandering definition

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Drawing district lines to maximize some political interest

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Closed primary definition

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Election for the party's nominee in which only those registered as party members who can vote

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Open primary definition

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Election for the parties' nominees in which registrants are allowed to vote in any primary they choose (but only in one)

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Blanket/jungle primary definition

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Election in which all candidates for each office are listed on the ballot, and anymore registered to vote in that election may vote for any one candidate; typically, the top two vote-getters advance to a second, runoff election

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Plurality rule definition

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A way of determining who wins elections in which the candidate with the most votes win (even if they do not get a majority of the votes)

Chapter 2- The American Electoral Process

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