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The hindsight bias refers to people's tendency to

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Exaggerate their abulity to have forseen the outcome of past events

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Sasha believes that she is a very good driver. Her belief leads her to take unnecessary risks, such as driving too fast and cutting in front of other drivers. Sasha's driving appears to be affected by

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Overconfidence

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According to professor fayad, we like people who like us because their affection for us boosts our own self-esteem. His idea is an example of

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A theory

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Hypotheses are best described as

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Predictions

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An experiment was designed to study the potential impact of alcohol consumption on emotional stability. A specification of the procedures used to measure emotional stability illustrates

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An operational definition

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Which research method is typically used to examine one participant in depth, usually because the individual's situation/behavior is rare or unusual?

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Case study

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To assess reactions to a proposed tuition hike at her college, Ariana sent a questionnaire to every fifteenth person in the college registrar's alphabetical listing of all currently enrolled students. Ariana employed the technique of

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Random sampling

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If psychologists discovered that wealthy people are less satisfied with their marriages than poor people are, this would indicate that wealth and marital satisfaction are

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Negatively correlated

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A researcher interested in proving a causal relationship between two variables should choose what research method?

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Experiment

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Mr. and Mrs. Berry have five children aged 2, 3, 7, 9, and 9. The median age of the Berry children is

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7

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Mean

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The average number

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Median

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The number in the middle

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Mode

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The number that occurs the most

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Psychology is first and foremost a science thus it's based on

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Research

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The problem with common sense

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It more easily describes what HAS happened instead of what WILL happen

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Overconfidence

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-we tend to think we know more than we do or what we say we "will do" and then we don't

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Overconfidence, together with hindsight bias, can lead people to

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Overestimate our own intuition

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Scientific inquiry

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Can help us decipher what is reality vs. illusion

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Hypothesis

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-good theory produces "testable predictions" -hypothesis allows us to test -express a relationship between 2 variables

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Operational definitions

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Psychologists carefully define words used in research, so others can replicate (describe with EXACT procedures)

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Case study

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Examines the individual in depth in hope of revealing the true things about many others

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Case study possible problems

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-be careful not to generalize -if people being studied are atypical, then findings can be false or contradicting -must answer questions using other research methods to strengthen the reliability of findings

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Survey method

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-most common type of study in psychology -cheap and fast -need a good random sample -low-response rate -looks at many cases at once

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Random sampling

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Most effective with a larger group

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Survey method possible problems

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-words effects -way questions are asked impact results "Limit"/"forbid"

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Naturalistic observation

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-watch subjects in their natural environment

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Naturalistic observation problems

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-Can never really show cause and effect -describes behavior but doesn't explain behavior

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Research methods provide data for

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Correlational research

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Correlation coefficient

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Helps us figure out how closely two things vary together (correlate)

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Correlation helps to _____

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Predict

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Correlation doesn't imply_____

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Cause and effect

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Correlation indicates the possibility of a _____

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Cause and effect relationship but doesn't prove

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Illusionary correlation

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Perceived non-existent correlation; a random coincidence

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Illusionary correlation

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When we notice random coincidences, we may forget that they're random and instead see them as correlated, thus we deceive ourselves by seeing what isn't really there

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Positive correlation

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-2 sets of scores rise and fall together -behave in the same way -increase/increase or decrease/decrease

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Negative correlation

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-relative inverse -one goes up and he other goes down

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Weak correlation

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Little relationship will have a coefficient near 0

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Scatterplot

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-a graphed group (or cluster) of dots -each for represents the values of 2 variables -the slope of the points suggest the direction of the relationship between the 2 variables - the amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation

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Research methods

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Case studies, surveys, naturalistic observation

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Experimental method

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Looking to prove causal relationships Ex. Smoking causes health issues

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Correlation reserch

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-can't control for all possible factors -uncovers naturally occurring relationships

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Experiments

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Can manipulate factors to determine its effect

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The object of an experiment is to

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Prove that A causes B

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Confounding variable

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Anything that could cause change in B, that is not A

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Random assignment

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Once you have a random sample, randomly assigning them into 2 groups helps control for confounding variables Experimental group vs. control group

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Independent variable

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Whatever is being manipulated in the experiment

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Dependent variable

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-whatever is being measured in the experiment -it's dependent on the independent variable

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Single blind procedure

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-one group received treatment -other receives a pill that's a placebo -both groups don't know what they're getting -placebo effect -thinking results occur...

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Experimenter bias

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-another confounding variable -not a conscious act -double-blind procedure

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Double-blind procedure

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Neither participants not the research assistants who are collecting data know which group receives

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Range/variance

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Distance from the highest to lowest data Smaller range=more valid

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Standard deviation

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-still more useful -gives you a clearer picture of how many fall near the mean -more accurately tells us where the data is

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I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon

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Hindsight bias

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What are the three main components of scientific attitude?

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Curiosity, humility, skepticism

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Critical thinking

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Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather, it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions

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Replicate

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Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other participants and circumstances

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Population

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All the cases in a graph being studied, from which samples may be drawn

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Experiment

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A research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors (independent variable) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). By random assignment of participants, the experiment aims to control other relevant factors

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Placebo effect

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Experimental results caused by expectations alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which the recipient assumes is an active agent

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Experimental group

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In an experiment, the group that is exposed to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable

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Control group

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In an experiment, the group that is not exposed to the treatment; contrasts with the experimental group and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment

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Normal curve (normal distribution)

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A symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data; most scores fall near the mean and fewer and fewer near the extremes

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Statistical significance

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A statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance

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What principles can guide our making generalizations from samples and deciding whether differences are significant? When is an observed difference reliable?

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1. Representative samples are better than biased samples 2. Less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable 3. More cases are better than fewer

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Culture

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The enduring behaviors, ideas, attitudes, values and traditions shared by a group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next

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Informed consent

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An ethical principle that research participants be told enough to enable them to choose whether they wish to particpate

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Debrief

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The postexperimental explanation of a study, including its purpose and any deceptions, to its participants

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