Demand Elasticity: Price Change & Quantity Change for Revenue Increase

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Demand Elasticity
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[Q demand change / Q Average] / [P Change / P Average] ; if >1 then demand is elastic (demand changes more than price)
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Price-Quantity-Revenue (revenue stays same); EX: if price declines 6%, what increase in sales is needed to maintain revenue
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% change in price / compliment % of price change
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Price-Quantity-Revenue (with revenue increase): if price declines 6% what increase in sale is needed to increase revenue by 8%
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(% change in price + % increase in revenue) / compliment % of price change
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Correlation: direction (+1, 0, -1); how to do it quickly
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+1= highly correlated; 0= no correlation; -1= negatively correlated; {look for direction first, the degree of changes)
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Industry Models: Pure Competition
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many producers of a commodity
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Oligopoly
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serveral large producers controlling 70-80% of the market share
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Duopoly
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two producers control the market
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Monopoly
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single producer
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Monopolistic Competition
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many producers each with a monopoly in an individual market
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Cartel
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a group of producers with an agreement to set prices
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Monopsony
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one buyer (EX: US Government)
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Profit Margin
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NI / gross revenue
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Operating Leverage: If increase unit sales which company has faster margin growth {A= low fixed, high variable; B= high fixed, low variable}
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company B because they make more per unit sold; if sales decrease company B would also faster margin declines because of profits lost per unit and higher fixed costs
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Proxy statements
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management compensation, ownership
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Form 4
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Insider/affiliate ownership filing
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Reg. 13D
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Ownership +5%
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Form 144
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large insiders selling restricted stock
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Executive stock option information can be found where?
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Proxy & 10-K Footnotes
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Statement of Cash Flow (sections):
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Operating, Investing; Financing
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Statement of CF: Operating
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NI, Depreciation, Deferred tax (L), Receivables, Inventory, AP, etc...
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Statement of CF: Investing
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Plant, Business Acquired, etc...
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Statement of CF: Financing
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Common stock issued, debt (retirement/issuance), dividends
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Statement of CF: Asset Decrease
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Source of Cash; CF increase
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Statement of CF: Asset Increase
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Use of Cash; CF decrease
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Statement of CF: Liability Decrease
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Use of Cash; CF decrease
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Statement of CF: Liability Increase
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Source of Cash; CF increase
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ABC Corp. paid principal on maturing debt (from RE), how will this affect Statement of CF
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Liability decrease; CF decrease
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Company XYZ misses Earning on low revenue, what two B.S. items are most useful: AR, Inventory, AP, RE
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AR and Inventory: they missed because of sales (revenue) so you need to look into the accounts that show this. If they were to miss on higher costs then would probably want to look into AP (among other things)
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Aggressive accounting (6 to memorize):
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report lower expenses; capitalize vs. expense costs; operating vs. capital lease; overvalue assets, underestimate liabilities; use high (8%+) discount rate to calc. pension fund liabilities
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Operating Lease
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lease right to use only (only have an operating expense); payment through SG&A as operating expense; no effect on B.S.; lower operating income but more aggressive from net income (in early years) since interest is deducted as well
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Capital Lease
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lease to own- record as asset & liability; claim depreciation and incure interest expense (imputed interest); because the imputed interest is not an operating expense it creates higher operating income but record more total expenses sooner so this is less aggressive; operating CF reflects imputed interest;
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Must be reported as capital lease if:
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1) lease for 75% of useful life OR 2) planned transfer of ownership OR 3) option to purchase at bargain price OR 4) PV of lease payments is > 90% of future market value
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Accelerated depreciation: report tax with accel. and report GAAP with straight-line
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lower earnings for tax purpose; increase deferred tax liability (GAAP)
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Capitalization of Interest:
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FASB Statement 34- requires firms to capitalize interest incurred during construction of assets; any interest incured during construction is added to the cost of the asset; interest would not be deducted from NI (or op. income) and earnings will be not be affected until depreciation begins
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Capitalize Expenses: if firm capitalizes software expense then what happens to EBITDA and capitalized costs?
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EBITDA is higher; capitalized costs are higher (through depreciation expense)
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Revenue Recognition: Completion Method
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revenue is recognized as costs are incurred (as percentage of the completed product)
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Revenue Recognition: Completed Contract Method
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revenue and costs are not recognized until the contract is completed
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Accnting for Stock Investment: Cost Method
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used when ownership is <20%; carried at original cost basis; gains/losses realized when shares sold; can be written down if experience permanent decline (OTTI)
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Accnting for Stock Investment: Equity Method
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if ownership is between 20-50%; considered and affiliate company; owner records its proportionate share; debit invesment in sub. / credit investment income
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Accnting for Stock Investment: Consolidated Financial Statement
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if ownership >50%; invesment account replaced with 100% of A&L of subsidiary; accounted for under purchase accounting method; goodwill is created if acquisition price > fair value of assets acquired
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Goodwill (and Intangibles) with indefinite lives:
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FASB 142- G&I will not be amortized; will be tested (annually) for impairment by comparing fair value to book value (if fair value is less then impairment loss is recognized
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Intangible with finite useful lives:
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are amortized over their useful life (without any arbitrary ceiling)
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Pension plan assets and liabilities (with change in interest rate)
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interest rates decrease: assets will increase in value (because usually fixed income), this is offset by higher pension fund liabilities (higher PV of fund oblgations with smaller discount rate);
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Cash dividends Declared and Paid:
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Declared: RE decrease, current liabilities increase (working capital decrease, current ratio decrease); Paid: current assets decrease (cash), current liabilities decrease (working capital stays same, current ratio increase if >0)
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Stock Dividends
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if 25% par value is reduced, RE does not change (same as stock splits)
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International Currency Questions
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-headquarter (reported figures); cost location change; revenue location change
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FIFO
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first-in-first-out; first cost matched with first units sold; prices rise then costs will not reflect it right away; aggressive because CoGS will appear lower
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LIFO
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last-in-last-out; last costs matched with first units sold; prices rise then costs will be higher (reflect new costs)
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Channel Stuffing
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producers send retailers more products then they are able to sell (artificially increases AR); look for AR growth to exceed sales growth & DSO
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Current Ratio:
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current assets / current liabilities
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Quick Ratio:
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cash + cash equivalents + AR (no inventory) / current liabilities
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Day Sales Outstanding:
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(AR / total credit sales) x number of days (90 or 365)
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Operating Profit Margin:
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operating profit / sales (or revenue); if sales increase more than costs margin increases
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Total Debt to Equity:
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total debt / total equity
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Basic EPS:
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earnings available to common / average number of shares outstanding; don't forget to deduct preferred dividends to get earning available to common
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Acquisition: how many new shares?
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get equity value (target shares x price/share) and divide by the stock price of the acquirer
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Return on Common Equity
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earnings available to common / avg common equity; OR [(NI-preferred div) / avg. common equity]
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Quality of Earnings (factors most important)
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internal (operational) rather than external issues; EX: lowering bad debt expense (improved collection of AR), etc...
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(Trailing, Leading, Normalized, Relative) PE Ratios
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trailing= TTM, leading=upcoming period (yr); normalized= for cyclical company; relative use to compare vs. an index
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Events that affect P/E Ratio (memorize 4):
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1) litigation, 2) projected growth rate; 3) capital structure; 4)cost of capital (beta influences of cost of equity, cost of debt may be factor as well)
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Dividend Yield:
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Dividend / Price
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Dividend Payout Ratio:
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Dividend / EPS
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Earnings Yield:
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EPS / Price
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P/E Shortcuts:
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DP / DY = P / E; DY / DP = E / P; Dividend Yield = DP * EY
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Price to Sales Ratio (when used)
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P/S- used for companies with negative or inconsistent earnings; valuation metric could be used for firms in financial difficulty or start-ups; not influenced by different methods of accounting; not as volitle as earnings
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PEG Ratio
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PE / Annual Growth Rate- looks to future performance; value company based on growth potential; if >1 then company is overvalued
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Target Price using PEG Ratio: Company XYZ has PEG of 1.24, its EPS is $0.56 and is projected to be $0.65 next year, what is the PT?
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Determine growth rate: [EPS(1)/EPS(0) - 1]; Determine PE: PEG X Growth Rate; Determine Price (PT): PE * EPS(1)
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CAGR (w/ simple calculator):
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calc % change in values and find their average; CAGR will be a little lower than this figure
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Dividend Discount Model:
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P(0)= d(t)/(1+r)^t; No growth: P= d /k; Constant Growth: P= d(1) / (k-g) OR K= [d(1) / p] +g
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Gordon Growth Model:
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use to find intrinsic value; find g= ROE x plowback (which is compliment of payout ratio); P(0)= (D(0)x[1+g])/(k-g)
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FCFF
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cash flow to equity and debt holders; use unlevered net income; [EBITx(1-tax)]+depreciation,amortization-capex+decrease in working capital
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FCFE
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cash flow to just equity; NI+depreciation,amortization-capex+decrease in working capital
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FCFF vs. FCFE (what is the difference)
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FCFF will add back (interest - tax shield); so FCFE= FCFF- (interest - tax shield)
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To find target stock price with EPS, CapEx, Dep., growth, working capital
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FCFE/(RoR-G)
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Enterprise Value:
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market cap. (common & preferred) + market value of debt - cash and equivalents + capital leases + minority interest
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EV / EBITDA (memorize 2 uses)
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metric for corporate profitability that neutralizes difference in capital structure; used to evaluate the overall value of the company, rather than just the equity value of the company
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EV / Sales (memorize 2 uses)
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used to evaluate companies with low profit margins (incl. start-ups with no earnings or negative EBITDA); used to evaluate a company's use of capital to generate sales
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Industry: Price / Book Value
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financial services
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Industry: Price / Cash Flow
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REITS (or P/FFO)
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Industry: Normalized, Relative P/E
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cyclical companies
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Industry: Price / Sales Ratio
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retail, similar leverage
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Industry: Earning Yield
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companies with negative earnings (if high start-up costs, use EV / Sales)
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Industry: EV / EBITDA
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basic (heavy) industry companies
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Industry: EV / Sales
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retail, different leverage; OR negative EBITDA and high start-up costs
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Industry: PEG Ratio
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companies with high PE ratios (high growth)
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Cost of Equity
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Dividend Discount or CAPM= R(f) + B[R(m)-R(f)]; R(m) can mean expected RoR
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Cost of Debt (post tax)
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Pre-tax Cost of Debt x (1-Tax)
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Sum of the Parts (memorize 3 steps):
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1) project segments income into future (with specific growth rate), 2) apply appropriate multiplier to estimate future value, 3) discount future value to PV with RoR
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In rising rate environment, what happens to DCF, WACC, PV of pension liabilities, Risk-free rate
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DCF= decline; WACC= increase; PV of pension liabilities= decline; Risk-free rate= increase
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Asset Turnover
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Sales / Average Assets; if high then assets are outdated; if low then they are tying up capital
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Receivable Turnover
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Sales / Average Receivables
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Inventory Turnover
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CoGS / Average Inventory (sometimes numerator is Sales)
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Payables Turnover
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CoGS / Average Payables; if receivable turnover is down and payables turnover stays the same then the company is improving cash conversion cycle
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Working Capital Ratio:
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NWC (CA-CL) / Sales; shows how much working capital is need per sale
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Equity Turnover:
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Sales / Average Equity
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EBIT Margin:
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EBIT (NOI or Operating Income) / Sales
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EBITDA Margin:
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EBITDA / Sales
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Gross Profit Margin:
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Gross Profit (Sales-CoGS) / Sales
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Net Profit Margin:
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NI / Sales
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Pre-Tax Margin:
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EBT / Sales
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Operating Profit Margin:
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Operating Profit (GP - Selling - Admin -Other) / Sales
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ROA
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NI / Average Assets
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ROE
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NI Available to Common (NI - Preferred) / Average Common Equity
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Day Sales Outstanding:
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Accnt Receivable / (Credit Sales / 360)
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Debt-to-capital
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Debt / Total Capital
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Financial Leverage
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Debt / Equity
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Debt-to-EBITDA
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Debt / EBITDA
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Interest Coverage Ratio:
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EBIT / Interest Expense
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Sector Valuation: cyclical
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relative or normalized PE ratio
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Sector Valuation: High tech growth
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PEG
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Sector Valuation: High tech with no earnings
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price / sales OR EV / sales; allows to make assumptions on future margins
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Sector Valuation: heavy infrastructure
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EV / EBITDA; accounts for different cap. structure and depreciation methods
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Sector Valuation: REIT
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price / cash flow or price / FFO; no capex, value comes from equit earnings
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Sector Valuation: Retail (leverage is equal)
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Price / Sales
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Sector Valuation: Retail (leverage is not equal)
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EV / Sales
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ROIC
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NOI - taxes / invested capital; invested capital = TA - noninterest bearing CL + excess cash (found in footnote)
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ROIC-WACC Spread
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ROIC / WACC; if >1 then creating value; Equity Value / Invested Capital = ROIC / WACC
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Equity Value
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? FCFE / (1+Cost of Equity)?
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Terminal Value
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CF / (k-g)
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Dividend Growth Model, discount rate with capital raise
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K = D(1) / P(1-F) + g; where F equal flotation fees % to raise capital
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NOI
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net operating income: EBIT; remember that operating expenses include Depreciation and Amortization
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Transaction Value
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Offer value + net debt
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Creating Goodwill in M&A
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Offer value - net tangible assets; where net tangible assets= TA - goodwill - L - intangibles
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Main factor affecting SUPPLY elasticity:
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time available to change production; in other words, how quickly producers can change production to increase or decrease the supply
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If P/E are close then...
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cannot determine who is over/under valued
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Projecting the growth rate for an industry: do use & do NOT use
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do use: forward looking, suppliers and customers; do NOT use historical, CAGR, 10-K
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restructuring charges: where found...
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operating expense and footnote in 10-K
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leading economic indicators (1):
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changes in wholesale price of raw materials
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coincidental economic indicators (1):
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industrial production
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lagging economic indicators (2):
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average duration of unemployment; C&I loans outstanding
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factors that affect the pharmaceutical industry (2)
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R&D Spending; M&A (consolidation)
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debt issued and increase in revenue covers issuance costs plus the required rate of return, how will EPS change.
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the EPS will stay the same because you are basically returning your discount rate
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Capital Lease (b.s. changes)
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fixed assets go up by: (value of capital lease - depreciation); will have higher debt-to-equity because of higher liabilities; book short-term portion of lease as CL - increase in CL causes Current Ratio decline
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tax-loss carryforward (affect on earnings)
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NI and earnings available to common will reduce by: (1-tax rate) x [tax loss carryforward]
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Calculate Common Shares:
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Common stock - treasury shares
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Common Equity (using Shareholder Information):
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[common stock] + [additional paid-in-capital] - [treasury stock] + [RE] (do not include preferred stock)
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fully diluted EPS
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(EBIT - interest - tax) / (common shares + converted preferred shares); do not include preferred dividends when calculating NI
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Enterprise Value (listed out terms):
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([common shares x mkt value] + [mkt value preferred])+(debt-LT&ST)-(cash & cash equivalents: t-bills)+ (minority interest) + (capital leases)
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Capital Lease over life of the lease:
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declining expense pattern; interest expense declines which has a net positive impact on operating CF; NI increases (as well as taxable income);
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Not in continuing operations:
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gain/loss on business segment divestiture; extraordinary items
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