CON 270 Test 1 Notes – Flashcards
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How do Contracting Specialist use statistics? 1. Developing __________ objectives 2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis 3. Developing _______ and _______ price 4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision
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Government profit / fee minimum and maximum contract type
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_______ _________ is the central value around which data observations tend to cluster.
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Central Tendency
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__________ is the closeness of the clustering or variation within the data set.
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Dispersion
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Average in central tendency is the ____.
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Mean
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Middle in central tendency is the ______.
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Median
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The ____ is most frequent but not necessarily the "majority".
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Mode
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Four measures of Dispersion are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.
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Range Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation
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When asked about Relative accuracy, use __.
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CV (Coefficient of Variation)
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More dispersion (variability) equals greater ____.
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risk
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________ is the average squared estimating error.
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Variance
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________ _________ is the average estimating error.
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Standard Deviation
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___________ __ _________ is the average % estimating error
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Coefficient of Variation (CV)
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A skew of 0 is ________ distributed.
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normally
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A skew that is positive is _____ skewed.
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right
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A skew that is negative is _____ skewed.
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left
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________ kurtosis is flat.
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Negative
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________ kurtosis has a peak.
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Positive
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A kurtosis of 0 is ________ distributed.
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normally
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The skewness in the data tends to effect the ____ more than the ______.
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mean median
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When data is skewed, the ______ is more representative of the data.
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median
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With __% confidence the Population ____ will fall between the ___ and ___.
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90 Mean min and max
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________ deals with dispersion.
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Accuracy
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When an observation departs significantly from the center of the data it is typically referred to as an "_______".
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outlier
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An outlier is greater than + or - 2 times the ________ _________.
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standard deviation
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A __________ _________ is a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range.
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Confidence interval
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Confidence intervals allow us to make a probability statement about the __________ mean
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population
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__________ ________ is when you have a large bill of material to be evaluated, there is a statistical technique recommended that saves time and, therefore, money.
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stratified sampling
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____ __________ ____________ is a Base/Pool relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable.
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Cost Estimating Relationship
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Cost Estimating Relationships permit __________ _________ without generating excessive amounts of data
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reasonable estimates
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____ / ____ and ____ / ___-____ are two types of Cost Estimating Relationships.
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Cost/Cost Cost/Non-Cost (Product)
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These Variables Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y drive
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Independent = Base = Direct = X
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Calculate Dependent and Independent Variables with ____ / ____.
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Pool / Base
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In a Cost / No Cost situation, the no cost aspect will be your ____________ ________ which is the Base.
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independent variable
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______ ________ is a quantitative technique used for contract cost and pricing that uses an average of past observations to estimate and analyze estimates.
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Moving Averages
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______ and ______ are the two types of moving averages?
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Single Double
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______ ______ ________ are used when there IS NO time-series data trend.
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Single Moving Averages
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______ ______ ________ are used when there IS a time-series trend in the data
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Double Moving Averages
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?
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existence and accuracy
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?
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trend
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 3. Is the CER used ____________?
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consistently
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 4. How _______ is the CER?
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current
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?
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independent
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?
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self-fulfilling
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What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?
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detailed estimate or direct comparison
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__________ analysis is a statistical technique that attempts to explore and model the relationship between two or more variables.
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Regression
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Linear Equation
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Yc = A + BX
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________ __ ________ is how well the regression equation fits the data.
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Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
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___________ ___ ____ tells you how Confident you are that a relationship exists between X & Y
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Probability Not Zero
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___________ ___ ____ needs to be as close to 100% as possible
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Probability Not Zero
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If ___________ ___ ____ is lower, consider using a factor
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Probability Not Zero
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__ tells you the strength of the relationship between two variables
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r2
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__ is variation in Y is caused by X
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r2
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__ is the % of Explained Variation
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r2
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__ and ___________ ___ ____ are 2 Statistics used to measure "Goodness of Fit"
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r2 (Coefficient of Determination) Probability Not Zero
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___ is the average or typical estimating error where the unit of measure is in dollars or hours.
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SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate)
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When dealing with SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate), the lower the number the better (True/False)
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True
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The ____ is defined by the height of the curve.
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mean
