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Hindsight bias

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finding that something has happened that was seemingly inevitable; also known as the "I-knew-it-all-along" phenomenon

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Richard Goranson and his 3 anagrams

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(1978) asked people to unscramble WREAT -> WATER ETRYN -> ENTRY GRABE -> BARGE when people found out the answer, hindsight makes it seem obvious, so much that they become overconfident

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Important point to remember about the hindsight bias:

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Hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition but scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from illusion

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curiosity

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a passion to explore and understand without misleading or being misled

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empirical approach

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(Moses) a method that tests self-proclaimed theories or ideas by figuring out if they are misleading or not

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curious skepticism

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psychologists approach the world of behavior with this mindset, consistently asking the questions "What do you mean? How do you know?"

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humility

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an awareness of our own vulnerability to error and openness to surprises and new perspectives

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critical thinking

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smart thinking that examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions

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theory

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a scientific theory that explains through an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events

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hypotheses

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testable predictions that a good theory produces

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operational definitions

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definitions of ideas that come up during research findings; ex: Hunger might be defined as "hours without eating" in psychologists report findings

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descriptive methods

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describes behaviors, often using case studies, surveys, or naturalistic observations

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correlational methods

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detects naturally occurring relationships and to assess how well one variable predicts another; detects relationships between variables. *DOESN'T TELL US CAUSATION

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experimental methods

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manipulate factors to discover their effects; explores cause and effect *ONLY RESEARCH METHOD THAT CAN SHOW CAUSE AND EFFECT; CAUSATION

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case studies

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examines one individual in depth in hopes of revealing things true of us all

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Important point in case studies

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individual cases can suggest fruitful ideas. What;s true of all of us can be glimpsed in any one of us but to discern the general truths that cover individual cases, we must answer questions with other research methods.

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survey

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a method that looks at many cases in less depth

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Important point to remember about random sampling

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the best basis for generalizing is from a representative sample of cases

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random sample

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every person in the entire group (or population) has an equal chance of participating. allows us to generalize our findings to the entire population.

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Naturalistic observations

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records behavior in natural environments

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correlation coefficient

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helps us figure out how closely two things vary together, and thus how well either one predicts the other Ex: Knowing how much aptitude test scores CORRELATE with school success tells us how well the scores PREDICT school success

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scatterplots

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illustrates the range of possible correlations from a perfect positive to a perfect negative *perfect correlations hardly ever occur in the "real world"

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Important point to remember in correlation

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a correlation coefficient helps us see the world more clearly by revealing the extent to which two things relate

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correlation versus causation

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correlation indicates the possibility of a cause-effect relationship but does not prove causation.

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Illusory correlation

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a perceived but nonexistent correlation; the perception of a relationship where none exists. ex: when we BELIEVE there is a relationship between two things, we are likely to NOTICE and RECALL instances that confirm our belief (Trolier & Hamilton 1986)

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Important point in illusory correlations

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when we notice random coincidences, we may forget that they are random and instead see them as correlated thus we can easily deceive ourselves by seeing what is not there.

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randomly assigning and experiments

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unlike correlational relationships, an experiment manipulates a factor to determine its effect

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double-blind procedure

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neither the participants nor the research assistants collecting date will know which group is receiving the treatment and which is receiving the placebo

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placebo effect

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believing something is true just because it seems "real" to us

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experimental group

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the people who receive the REAL treatment in placebo testing (receives the independent variable)

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control group

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doesn't receive the treatment, receives a fake treatment

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independent variable

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the experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied.

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dependent variable

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the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable; what is being measured.

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variable

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any factor that can vary

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bar graph

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a preferred graph that is simple and easy to understand/read

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measures of central tendency

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a single score that represents a whole set of scores; mode, mean, and median.

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mode

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the most frequently occurring score or scores

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mean

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(arithmetic average) the total sum of all the scores divided by the number of scores

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median

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the midpoint or 50th percentile

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skewed

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lopsided

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Important point about means

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extreme scores could greatly affect your mean

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variation

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how similar or diverse the scores are (range and standard deviation)

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range of scores

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the difference between the lowest and highest scores providing only a crude estimate of variation because a couple of extreme scores in an otherwise uniform group will create a deceptively large range

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standard deviation

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more useful standard for measuring how much scores deviate from the mean score. This method better gauges whether scores are packed together or dispersed because it uses information from each score.

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normal curve

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bell-shaped distribution of standard deviation scores

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three principles to keep in mind when deciding when it's safe to generalize from a sample theory

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1. Representative samples are better then biased samples 2. Less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable 3. More cases are better than fewer *don't be overly impressed by a few anecdotes, generalizations based on a few unrepresentative cases are unreliable

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statistical significance

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when the difference between sample averages are large and reliable. Indicates the likelihood that a result will happen by chance but this does not say anything about the importance of the result.

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What help explain everyday behaviors?

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The resulting principles of an action, not the specific findings

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culture

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shared ideas and behaviors that one generation passes on to the next

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Why do psychologists study animals?

answer

many study animals because they are fascinating and want to understand how different species learn, think, and behave (and in comparison to people)

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the two issues of animal testing

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1. whether it is right to place the well-being of humans above that of animals 2. the priority we give to the well-being of animals in research

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APA ethical principles on human testing

answer

investigators are urged to 1. obtain the informed consent of potential participants, 2. protect them from harm and discomfort, 3. treat information about individual participants confidentially, and 4. fully explain the research afterward.

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How can personal values affect research?

answer

researchers' values influence their choice of topics and can color "the facts"

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After the horror of 9/11, many people said the CIA and the FBI should obviously have foreseen the likelihood if this form of terrorism. This perception most clearly represents what?

answer

The hindsight bias

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When Leanne heard about experimental evidence that drinking orange juice triggers hyperactivity in children, she questioned whether the tested children had been randomly assigned to experimental conditions. Leanne's reaction best illustrates what?

answer

Critical thinking

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Stacey suggests that because children are more impulsive than adults, they will have more difficulty controlling their anger. Stacey's prediction regarding anger management is an example of what?

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A hypothesis

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Professor Carter observes and records the behavior of grocery shoppers as they select items to purchase. Which type of research is Professor Carter using?

answer

Naturalistic observation

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A negative correlation between people's work-related stress and their martial happiness would indicate that

answer

Higher levels of martial happiness are associated with lower levels of work-related stress

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Mr. Brown has gathered evidence that the self-esteem of students is negatively correlated with their typical levels of anxiety. Before he uses this evidence to conclude that self-esteem reduces anxiety, Mr. Brown should first be reminded of what?

answer

That correlation DOES NOT prove causation

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Which method offers the most reliable way of assessing whether athletic performance is boosted by caffeine consumption?

answer

The experiment

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In drug-treatment studies, double-blind procedures minimize outcome differences between experimental and control conditions that could be attributed to

answer

placebo effects

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In an experimental study of the extent to which mental alertness is inhibited by sleep deprivation, alertness would be the

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Dependent variable

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To assess whether sense of humor is affected by sexual stimulation, researchers exposed married couples to either sexually stimulating or to sexually non stimulating movie scenes prior to watching a comedy skit. In this research, the independent variable consisted of

answer

The level if sexual stimulation

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One person in a 10-person group is 10 times older than anyone else in the group. With respect to age, it is MOST likely that the majority of group members are younger than the group's..

answer

Mean

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The ______ is a measure of ________. A. Standard deviation; central tendency B. Mean; variation C. Median; central tendency D. Mode; variation

answer

C: Median; central tendency

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The maximum height of a normal curve corresponds to the ______ of a normal distribution.

answer

Mean

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Random samples provide ________ estimates of population averages if the samples have small ________.

answer

Good; standard deviations

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Ethical principles developed by psychologists urge investigators to

answer

Treat information about individual research participants confidentially.

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Jamie and Lynn were sure that they had answered most of the multiple-choice questions correctly because "the questions required only common sense." However, they each scored less than 60% on the exam. This best illustrates what?

answer

Overconfidence *make sure to not confuse this with the hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is when something is seemingly obvious after the fact, overconfidence is a false sense of your abilities.

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Psychological theories

answer

organize scientific observations, explain observed facts, and generate hypotheses.

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Which research method runs the greatest risk of collecting evidence that may be unrepresentative of what is generally true?

answer

The case study (the case study is focused on one person or thing so it generally isn't applicable to large groups or what is generally true)

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Every 25th person who subscribed to a weekly news magazine was contacted by market researchers to complete a survey of opinions regarding the magazine's contents. The researchers were applying the technique known as

answer

Random sampling

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A correlation of +0.70 between children's physical height and their popularity among their peers indicates what?

answer

higher levels of popularity among your peers is associated with greater physical height in children

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Surveys are most likely to indicate that reckless behavior and self-control are

answer

Negatively correlated

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A tendency to notice and remember instances in which our premonitions of disaster are subsequently followed by harmful events is most likely to contribute to

answer

Illusory correlations

question

To test the potential effect of hunger on taste sensitivity, groups of research participants are deprived of food for differing lengths of time before they engage in a taste-sensitivity test. This research is an example of what?

answer

An experiment

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Researchers control factors that might influence a dependent variable by means of

answer

Random assignment

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In a study of factors that might affect memory, research participants were assigned to drink either an alcoholic or a nonalcoholic beverage prior to completing a memory test. Those who drank the nonalcoholic beverage were assigned to the ________ group.

answer

Control

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In an experimental study of effects of dieting on weight loss, dieting would be the

answer

Independent variable

question

Ahmed has five sisters who are 3, 3, 5, 9, and 10 years of age. The number "5" represents the _______ of the sisters' ages'.

answer

Median

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The ________ can be a particularly misleading indication of what is average for a ________ distribution of scores.

answer

Mean; skewed

question

The ________ is a measure of _______. A. median; variation B. range; central tendency C. standard deviation; variation D. correlation coefficient; central tendency

answer

C. Standard deviation; central tendency

question

Differences between two samples are LEAST likely to be statistically significant if

answer

The samples are small and the standard deviations of the samples are large.

question

Identify the independent, dependent variable, experimental, and control group: Of 100 individuals with moderate depression, 50 receive 8 weeks of a new cognitive-behavorial therapy, while the other are placed on a waiting list for 8 weeks. At the end of the 8 weeks all 100 are given psychological tests to assess their level of depression.

answer

IV: cognitive-behavorial therapy DV: the level of depression EG: people receiving the cognitive-behavioral therapy CG: the 8 weeks

question

Identify the independent, dependent variable, experimental, and control group: A biopsychologist is studying the effects of anabolic steroids on the aggressive behavior of female rats. 24 female rats receive daily injections of a placebo, while 24 others receive daily injections of the steroid. Round-the-clock videotapes of the communal cages of all rats allow all aggressive behaviors to be counted and timed.

answer

IV: steroid injection DV:aggressive behavior encounters EG: steroid injections CG: placebo injections

question

Identify the method of research that is the best: Determining the favorite food(s) of adolescents

answer

survey

question

Identify the method of research that is the best: Whether a person is introverted or extroverted.

answer

psychological test

question

Identify the method of research that is the best: If frustration CAUSES aggression.

answer

experiment ***Remember experiments will show you causation, don't mix up with correlational methods.

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Types of research

answer

Descriptive, correlational, experimental

question

Types of descriptive research

answer

Case study, survey, longitudinal, cross-sectional, and naturalistic observation.

question

negatives of the survey method:

answer

low response rate, people lie or misinterpret themselves, wording impacts how people respond.

question

two types of correlation:

answer

Positive and negative correlation; range is +1 to -1.

question

experimental bias

answer

while it may not be a conscious act, researchers use double-blind procedures to avoid this conflict.

question

Hawthorne effect

answer

when subjects are aware of the fact that they are in an experiment so they act different than they normal would; naturalistic observations fix this.

question

IRB

answer

Internal Review Board; must approve research proposals for both humans and animals

question

descriptive statistics

answer

describes a set of data in a frequency distribution table, frequency histogram, or measures of central tendency (mean, median, mode)

question

what is a common issue with just looking at the mean of data?

answer

the mean often gets "skewed" so the outcome looks better than it really is; misleading (Think of Dunder Mifflin example)

question

z scores

answer

tells us how many standard deviations a value is from the mean

Unit 3 The Science in Psychology – Flashcards

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