MACRO Chap 9: unemployment and Inflation – Flashcards
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Labor force
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the sum of employed and unemployed workers in the economy
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Unemployment rate
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the % of the labor force thats unemployed
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current population survey
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aka the household survey
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employed if:
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-worked 1+ hours in reference week
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unemployed:
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not currently at work but is available for work and has actively looked for work during the previous month
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not in the labor force:
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if neither employed or unemployed
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discouraged workers:
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ppl who are available for work but haven't looked for a job during the previous 4 weeks bc they believe no jobs are available for them
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Unemployment Rate:
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(# unemployed/labor force)x100
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labor force participation rate
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the % of the working age population in the labor force
(labor force/working-age pop)x100
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Probs w measuring the unemployment rate:
-it may UNDERSTATE employment by:
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-distinguishing between ppl who are unemployed and not in the labor force requires judgement
-only measures employment, not intensity of employment (full time?, part?)
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it may OVERSTATE employment by:
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-ppl might lie about actively looking for work
-may claim not to be working to avoid taxes or keep criminal activity unnoticed
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trends in the labor force participation:
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-participation rate of adult men has declined..
-but women rates have increased, making the overall rate higher than it was then
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why the Labor force participation rate for men has fallen over the last several decades:
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-men have been going to school earlier and retiring earlier than before
-increases in social security disability insurance availability have allowed ppl w disabilities to stop werk
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3 types of unemployment
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1. frictional
2. structural
3. cyclical
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frictional unemployment
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-short term
-arises from the process of matching
-occurs mostly bc of job search:
entering or re-entering the labor force, or
-between jobs
-seasonal unemployment
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structural unemployment
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-arises from s persistent mismatch between the skills and attributes of workers & the requirements of the jobs
-associated w longer unemployment spells
-workers who are structurally unemployed may require retaining in order to get MODERN jobs
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Cyclical unemployment
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-unemployment causes by a business cycle recession
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the natural rate of unemployment:
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frictional + structural
when all unemployment is due to frictional and structural factors; there will always be unemployment in the economy
-somewhere between 5&6 %
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ACTUAL rate of unemployment=
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natural rate of unemployment + Cyclical rate
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labor unions
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orgs of workers that bargains employers for higher wages and better working conditions
-not significant cause of unemployment
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efficiency wages
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an above-market wage that a firm pays to increase workers productivity
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inflation rate
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the % increase in the price level from one year to the next
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consumer price index CPI:
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a measure of the average change over time in the prices a typical urban fan of 4 pays for goods and services they purchase
-aka cost of living index
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Calculating the CPI:
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(spendings of current year/ spendings of base yr)x100
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what is the inflation rate?
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the percentage change in the CPI from previous year to now
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CPI inflation is used to?
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generate "fair" increases in wages for workers and govt benefits
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some problems w the CPI:
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-substitution bias
-increase in quality bias
-new product bias
-outlet bias
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Producer Price Index PPI:
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an average of the prices received by producers of goods n services at all stages of the production process
Value in 1999 in dolars x(CPI in 2012/CPI in 1999) = Value in 2012
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nominal variables
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va;lies like wages in current year dollars
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real variables
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adjusted for inflatopn
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nominal intrest rates?
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the stated interest rate on a loan... but that much might not be worth the same amount in years
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real interest rates?
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adjusted for inflation
=the nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate
-if originally your nominal interest rate was 6% and prices rose by 2%, then your real interest rate is 4%
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problems w inflation?
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-some ppls wages might not go up w inflation
-nominal assets like cash decrease in value (if you hold most of your wealth in cash then inflation will decrease in real wealth for you)
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probs w anticipated inflation=
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-ppl & firms have increased real costs of holding cash
-firms have menu costs
-investors are taxed on nominal returns rather than real returns, this can increase the tax due
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probs w unanticipated inflation=
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-ppl make it hard to make good borrowing and lending decisions
-banks may lend $ at a low rate and then the real interest rate may be zero or negative
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the true cost of borrowing and lending is best measured by:
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the real interest rate
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when the economy is at full employment:
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-the natural rate of unemployment prevails
-the unemployment rate is grater than zero
-all remaining unemployment is either frictional or structural
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which can give an early warning of future prices increasing ?
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Producer price index