Year 2000 Problem or “y2k Problem” Essay Example
Year 2000 Problem or “y2k Problem” Essay Example

Year 2000 Problem or “y2k Problem” Essay Example

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  • Pages: 9 (2366 words)
  • Published: September 20, 2018
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The year 2000 will mark the start of the Millennial sun, with Kiribati being the first to witness this sunrise. Kiribati is an independent republic consisting of approximately thirty coral islands in the Pacific Ocean. Situated on the equator and International Date Line, it lies halfway between Hawaii and Australia. This highly awaited event has the potential to cause unforeseen disturbances across different regions worldwide. However, for the 81,000 Micronesians residing in Kiribati, this dawn may not bring any substantial transformations since they only began having access to television in 1989.

However, as we transition from '99 to '00 on the calendar, those who rely on satellites, transportation systems, manufacturing plants, electricity, communication devices, and television will witness a significant change. On January 1, 2000, as the sun moves westward and dates silently shift in cou

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ntless computerized systems, we will start perceiving our world that heavily depends on computers in a completely new manner. We will finally comprehend the scope of the interconnected and interdependent processes we have established. Precisely at midnight, the new millennium presents the most significant challenge to modern society as a global community. I am referring to the year 2000 problem or Y2K (with K symbolizing 1000). Initially dubbed "The Millennial Bug," an increasing awareness of the impending crisis has elevated it to "The Millennial Bomb." The problem emerges from a simple technical flaw. Older mainframe computers that are over a decade old were not programmed to handle a four-digit year.

Sitting here now, on the threshold of the year 2000, it is difficult to comprehend that computer programmers and microchip designers did not anticipate this. However, at the time these billions o

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lines of computer code were being written, computer memory was very costly. Remember when a computer only had 16 kilobytes of RAM? To conserve storage space, most programmers only assigned two digits for the year. In data files, 1993 is represented as '93' and 1917 as '17.' These two-digit dates can be found in millions of files that are used as input for countless applications. Programmers did whatever was necessary to ensure the successful operation of their products, without considering any standards.

Just like in the production of microchips three years ago, the same occurrence took place. Microprocessors and other integrated circuits are essentially advanced calculators used for counting and performing mathematical operations. They count various units such as fractions of seconds, days, inches, pounds, degrees, lumens, and more. Many chips were designed with a time function but were only programmed for this century. Consequently, when the date transitions from '99 to '00, these chips along with outdated software will mistakenly interpret it as still being the 20th century, specifically the year 1900 instead of 2000. The impact of Y2K date calculations is much more extensive, affecting millions of systems compared to those involved in handling inventories, interest rates, or insurance policies.

Every major aspect of our modern infrastructure relies on computerized systems with date functions to manage defense, transportation, power generation, manufacturing, telecommunications, finance, government, education, healthcare, and more. Our world's efficient functioning depends on computers, regardless of individual computer usage or the lack of telephones in some areas.

Computers are essential to the economic and political infrastructures of the world. These infrastructures are interconnected globally, forming dense networks of reliance. Our economic and political

activities are intertwined through these networks, causing any event in one part to affect other parts of the network.

The development of our computer-centric society has also led to an interconnected world. We have witnessed the vulnerability of these systems and how failures can spread across a networked system. These systems operate based on extensive code that specifies the necessary actions, completing tasks one after another. Each subsequent step relies on the successful completion of the preceding step.

Regardless of their size, all systems are susceptible to small issues because of their serial nature. In 1990, ATT's long distance system experienced multiple failures. At that time, the system needed two million lines of computer code to function correctly. However, only three faulty lines of code disrupted its operation, despite the extensive codebase. These systems have limited redundancies to maximize efficiency, making them more vulnerable.

In May of this year, a single satellite failure caused a crash lasting a day or more, affecting 90% of all pagers in the U.S. Similarly, towards the end of 1997, erroneous data from their sole central source disrupted email delivery to intended recipients for the Internet, impacting their servers. Now I aim to provide an elaborate explanation of the extent of Y2K's magnitude. Originating from legacy computer codes and embedded microchips, this issue has interconnected ramifications on a global scale.

For the past thirty years, programmers have written numerous lines of software code to support the global economy and society. According to Y2K reporter Ed Meagher, this includes outdated and undocumented code in more than 2500 computer languages, running on a variety of hardware platforms and operating systems. The complexity is further compounded by

billions of six-character date fields stored in millions of databases used for calculations. The Gartner Group, a computer-industry research group, estimates that a total of 180 billion lines of software code will need to be screened for Y2K compliance. As noted by Peter de Jager, it is not uncommon for a single company to have over 100 million lines of code, with the IRS alone having at least eighty million lines.

In 1991, the Social Security Administration began working on its thirty million lines of code. However, after five years of work, only six million lines had been fixed by four hundred programmers by June 1996. The IRS has 88,000 programs on 80 mainframe computers that need to be debugged. By the end of last year, they had cleaned up 2,000 programs. Capers Jones, the head of Software Productivity Research, estimates that over 700,000 person-years would be required to find, fix, and test all Y2K-affected software. Embedded microprocessors are also involved in this technical time bomb.

There are more than a billion hardware chips distributed throughout systems globally, supporting the world's manufacturing and engineering sector. These chips can be found in various applications including traffic lights, elevators, water, gas, and electricity control systems. Additionally, they are utilized in medical equipment as well as military and navigation systems. Notably, America's air traffic control system relies on these chips.

Microprocessors are found in various places, such as the track beds of railroad systems and the satellites orbiting the earth, and are essential for global telecommunications. Additionally, modern cars are equipped with around twenty-four microprocessors. Before noon each day, the average American encounters approximately seventy microprocessors. While some of these chips

are not affected by dates, many are, which poses difficulties for engineers working with older systems. Furthermore, not all chips exhibit the same behavior.

Recent tests have shown that two chips of the same model, installed in different computers but performing the same functions, have varying sensitivity to the year-end problem. While one chip shuts down, the other remains unaffected. This difference has led some companies to replace all their hardware and invest significant amounts of money, sometimes even reaching hundreds of millions. By doing this, they ensure that their internal systems continue to function properly. The global economy heavily depends on computers both directly and indirectly. Whether it's your personal computer or a workstation in a local area network, or even your GPS or mobile phone, all these devices are essential parts of larger networks that directly connect computers together. If a single component fails, it can cause a system crash which could affect various things such as an automobile, train, aircraft, electric power plant, bank, government agency, stock exchange, international telephone system or air traffic control system.

In the event that all problems related to date-sensitive hardware and software have not been resolved within a larger system, a single programming error or isolated chip has the potential to cause a complete system failure. The modern business world heavily depends on networks, with companies utilizing computerized databases to manage vendors, suppliers, customers, and outsourcers. The interconnected nature of these networks poses a significant challenge for Y2K. Each individual system cannot safeguard itself against Y2K failures by solely addressing its internal systems. To address this impending disaster, General Motors has diligently worked towards ensuring Year 2000 compliance

in their manufacturing plants which rely on a network spanning across 100,000 suppliers worldwide.

Companies are faced with the dilemma of dealing with their numerous suppliers who provide crucial parts, despite the near impossibility of bringing their internal systems into compliance. General Motors, for example, experiences production stoppages whenever one of their key suppliers goes on strike. The potential for numerous delays and shutdowns exists due to the large number of suppliers. Committee Chairman Robert Bennett, R-Utah, describes the task of remediating all critical systems in the highly automated oil and gas industry as enormous and criticizes the industry for starting too late. Although the FAA has made significant progress, congressional auditors still express doubts about the agency's preparedness. The auditors acknowledge that implementing these changes across many systems and locations is extremely difficult but remain hopeful that the FAA will succeed.

Joel Willemssen of the General Accounting Office expressed doubt about the ability to thoroughly test the global air traffic control system for the year 2000 transition. The transition will occur simultaneously worldwide at midnight Greenwich Mean Time on December 31, or at 6 PM in New York and 3 PM in San Francisco. This is the critical time to monitor the skies and airports for potential disasters and long queues. According to our assessments, the global community is likely to encounter Y2K-related failures in all sectors, regions, and economic levels. "The emerging global picture is worrisome," warned Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, Inspector General of the State Department. Microsoft Excel, a widely used software (versions 95, 97, and 2000) found on over 90% of the world's computers, is part of the Microsoft Office Suite.

According to Falcon, many analysis

tools currently on the market are inadequate when it comes to addressing the year 2000 change over. These tools do not search for the date function in every possible location within an Excel workbook. Users often create user-defined names that represent formulas and functions, but the tools cannot locate the date function within these names. Falcon tested the spreadsheet using several compliance-checking tools, including Viasoft Inc.’s OnMark 2000 Assess versions 3.0 and 4.0, Symantec Corp.’s Norton 2000, 2000Tools Group Inc.’s DateSpy Professional, Greenwich Mean Time-UTA’s Check 2000 PC Deluxe, ClickNet Software Corp.’s ClickNet, and Advanced System Technologies Ltd.’s Datefind-db. While these tools identified several other software bugs, they all failed to detect the error.

Falcon states that the IST Development Inc.'s Year 2000 Analysis Suite is the only tool capable of identifying the error. Dan Rickard, technical support manager for OnMark, a division of Viasoft, describes it as a specific example of a formula in a spreadsheet. He notes that out of 100 million files, only a small number might have this issue. To provide perspective, Rickard mentions that a typical Fortune 500 company possesses approximately 100 million files. The potential consequences are then discussed regarding various sectors experiencing prolonged downtime: banks, railroads, public utilities, telephone lines, military communications, and financial markets. Moreover, the text also highlights the possible impact on Social Security and Medicare programs if they were to fail since millions of individuals would be affected by such an occurrence. Nonetheless, the U.S. is currently evaluating others' preparedness despite these risks.

Diplomats utilized a standard survey to gather information about the Y2K programs, vulnerability to short-term economic and social turmoil, reliance on technology in essential

infrastructure sectors, and the progress of Y2K corrective efforts in host countries. In total, around half of the 161 countries assessed by U.S. officials were deemed to have medium to high risk of Y2K-related failures in their telecommunications, energy, and/or transportation sectors. However, Williams-Bridgers noted that the developing world's key sectors have relatively low levels of computerization, which could potentially reduce the risk of prolonged infrastructure failures. The last two dates in the initial table are related to the century rollover, which is a frequently misunderstood problem concerning the Day/Date/Year format.

When it comes to software that needs to anticipate or calculate future dates, distinguishing between the years 1900 and 2000 onwards is crucial. Moreover, this task becomes more intricate due to the presence of a leap year during the transition from one century to another. Leap years occur on February 29 only in centuries divisible by 400. Unfortunately, there are reports suggesting that certain software overlooks the fact that March 1 follows February 29.

The software creates dates like February 30 and 31. To rectify this issue, a new date projection calculator needs to be developed so that when "00" is used, it represents the year 2000 instead of 1900. Additionally, the display should be programmed to switch from displaying "19" to "20" for the century as needed. Alternatively, using four digits for the year is another option.

All file sizes and displays need to be modified to show four digits for the year. Additionally, using 9999 as an "end-of-file" or "end-of-record" placeholder, which has been a standard software practice for many years, presents another issue. Any software that treats the record of 9/9/99 (or 9999) as

"end-of-file" when looking ahead to September 9, 1999 will encounter problems. Therefore, restructuring of this software is necessary.

Bibliography

  1. "The Complexity Factor" by Ed Meagher, (09.03.99), 05:19 p.m. www.year2000.com/archive/complexity.html
  2. Y2K could disrupt Medicare benefits, (08.23.99), 01:26 a.m. GAO report finds Medicare systems ‘severely behind’ ASSOCIATED PRESS http://www.msnbc.com/news/200532.asp
  3. "Industry Wakes Up to the Year 2000 Menace," FORTUNE, April 27, 1998
  4. The Washington Post, "If Computer Geeks Desert, IRS Codes Will Be ciphers," December 24, 1997
  5. Business Week, March 2, 1998 http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/index.htm
  6. See dates (08-10-99) (06-30-98)… (09.05.99),11:09 p.m.http://www.Yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html
  7. U.S.Senate Panel Worried On Oil Sector Y2K Readiness.(08.17..99),07:19p.m.

(05.24.99), Folsom, Robert, Dow Jones Newswires. http://www.deja.com/getdoc.xp?AN=481604486

  • Fear of flying increases as Y2K nears. (08.17.99), 08:40 p.m. By Bob Hager, NBC News correspondent http://www.msnbc.com/news/250247.asp
  • Rolling thunder: Fits and starts: When bug will strike.
  • (08.28.99), 08:59 a.m. Mitch Ratcliffe, ZDNN http://www.msnbc.com/news/MILLBUGBIGPIC_Front.asp

  • Y2K glitch likely to disrupt trade. (08.25.99), 03:34 a.m.
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